LOSC Lille vs Le Havre Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Pierre-Mauroy Sun, 3 May - 1:00 PM
Ligue 1
LOSC Lille LOSC
1 – 1
Le Havre LEH
Full Time Sun, 3 May 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson - 29'
Goal
|
Goal
Issa Soumaré - 33'

CONTEXT

LOSC Lille and Le Havre played out a 1-1 draw in their Ligue 1 encounter, with the scoreline level at 1-1 at halftime. Lille, the stronger team, controlled 67% of possession compared to Le Havre's 33%, creating numerous chances but failing to convert dominance into victory. Le Havre showed resilience, equalizing after Lille's first-half opener and defending stoutly to secure a point. No red cards disrupted the flow, and the match proceeded without significant second-half tactical shifts. This outcome reflects Lille's moderate underperformance against expectations, as the home side could not overcome Le Havre's organized defense despite clear superiority in ball control and territory. The draw leaves both teams with mixed feelings, Lille frustrated by dropped points at home, and Le Havre satisfied with a hard-earned result away.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 10.8% for LOSC Lille.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No notable events significantly impacted match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Paradis

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Durand

1st Assistant

S. Torregrossa

2nd Assistant

R. Landry

4th Official

LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
VS
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.9
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: 71 W
Nice Rank: 69 D
Toulouse Rank: 73 W
Lens Rank: 82 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Rennes Rank: 79 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 69 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LOSC Lille
8.51%
Draw
89.2%
Away Le Havre
2.28%

Movement

Changes since opening
LOSC Lille
+0.69%
Draw
-0.21%
Le Havre
-0.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.61
67.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LOSC Lille
Le Havre
Power Score
80.61
67.5
League Position
4
14
Global Rank
58
262

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LOSC Lille Le Havre

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Le Havre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Le Havre
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.70
10.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.91
39.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LOSC Lille — Efficiency Index
vs
Le Havre — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Le Havre
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Le Havre
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LOSC Lille Le Havre
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Le Havre
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Le Havre
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LOSC Lille
vs
Le Havre
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LOSC Lille Le Havre
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LOSC Lille 0.24
Le Havre 0.06
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Le Havre
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LOSC Lille 0.03
Le Havre 0.01
LOSC Lille
Le Havre
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LOSC had peak pressure around 100'.
  • LOSC started the game with stronger pressure.
LOSC Pressure LEH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LOSC reached the top pressure at 100' (96.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LOSC Lille LOSC Home
7 matches
Le Havre LEH Away
Match Record
6
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
6
Goals
14
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
14
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:04:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Özer
Türkiye
1 B. Özer
T. Meunier
Substitution
Belgium
12 T. Meunier
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
R. Perraud
Substitution
France
15 R. Perraud
A. Bouaddi
Substitution
France
32 A. Bouaddi
B. André
France
21 B. André
N. Mukau
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
F. Sanches Correia
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
M. Fernandez Pardo
Belgium
7 M. Fernandez Pardo
Pitch
M. Diaw
Senegal
99 M. Diaw
Y. Zouaoui
Substitution
France
18 Y. Zouaoui
G. Lloris
France
4 G. Lloris
A. Seko
Japan
15 A. Seko
L. Nego
Hungary
7 L. Nego
L. Gourna Douath
France
19 L. Gourna Douath
S. Ebonog
France
26 S. Ebonog
I. Soumaré
Senegal
45 I. Soumaré
S. Boufal
Substitution
Morocco
17 S. Boufal
F. Doucouré
Substitution
Mali
13 F. Doucouré
M. Samatta
Substitution
Tanzania
25 M. Samatta

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Capacity :
50186
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Guillaume Paradis
Nicolas Durand
Steven Torregrossa
Remi Landry

Statistics

Possession
LOSC
64%
LEH
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
92 Dangerous attacks 32
67 Possession 33
14 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
3 Goal Kicks 8
25 Throwins 10
13 Successful Headers 10
11 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0
25 Dribble Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 4
68 Ball Safe 63
15 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

132 Attacks 64
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

431 Successful Passes 177
489 Passes 248
88 Successful Passes Percentage 71
32 Long Passes 55
18 Key Passes 0
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
22 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

12 Tackles 28
5 Interceptions 16
49 Duels Won 52
1 Saves 9

Build-up

43 Total Crosses 19
12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
6.85
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Defender
6.91
22
Tiago Santos
Tiago Santos
Defender85'
6.51
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
7.05
24
Calvin Verdonk
Calvin Verdonk
Defender74'
6.61
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
7.1
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
7.03
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Midfielder
6.63
8
Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé
Midfielder66'
6.69
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André Midfielder
7.18
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Midfielder
6.89
9
Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud
Attacker74'
6.84
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
6.81
28
Gaëtan Perrin
Gaëtan Perrin
Attacker84'
6.91
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Attacker
7.11
Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Defender
6.93
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Defender
6.75
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Defender
6.78
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Defender
6.82
27
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Attacker75'
6.56
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Midfielder
6.72
32
Timothée Pembélé
Timothée Pembélé
Defender64'
6.55
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Midfielder
6.86
8
Yassine Kechta
Yassine Kechta
Midfielder65'
6.58
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Midfielder
6.77
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog Midfielder
6.61
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Midfielder
7.08
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Attacker
6.64
6
Étienne Youté Kinkoué
Étienne Youté Kinkoué
Defender88'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Étienne Youté Kinkoué → Ally Samatta
9th Substitution
Event
Tiago Santos → Thomas Meunier
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Gaëtan Perrin → Ayyoub Bouaddi
7th Substitution
84'
75'
Event
Enzo Koffi Vinette → Yanis Zouaoui
6th Substitution
Event
Olivier Giroud → Félix Correia
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Calvin Verdonk → Romain Perraud
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Issa Soumaré
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ethan Mbappé → Ngal'ayel Mukau
3rd Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Yassine Kechta → Sofiane Boufal
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Timothée Pembélé → Fodé Doucouré
1st Substitution
Event
Aïssa Mandi
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Thomas Meunier
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
35'
Event
Ayumu Seko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Issa Soumaré
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
5'
Event
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Gaetan Perrin's right-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aissa Mandi attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aissa Mandi's right-footed shot is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Santos Carvalho takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Update Update
Etienne Youte Kinkoue replaces Mbwana Samatta.
85
Update Update
Gaetan Perrin comes on for Ayyoub Bouaddi.
85
Update Update
Tiago Santos Carvalho replaces Thomas Meunier.
76
Attempt Attempt
Calvin Verdonk takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Enzo Koffi comes on for Yanis Zouaoui.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Issa Soumare receives a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Olivier Giroud comes on for Felix Correia.
74
Update Update
Calvin Verdonk replaces Romain Perraud.
69
Attempt Attempt
Aissa Mandi's header is saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Romain Perraud's left-footed shot is blocked.
66
Update Update
Ethan Mbappe is on, and Ngal Ayel Mukau is off.
65
Update Update
Timothee Pembele replaces Fode Doucoure.
65
Update Update
Yassine Kechta replaces Sofiane Boufal.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aissa Mandi receives a yellow card.
58
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez Pardo takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Ngoy takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Update Update
Nathan Ngoy's header is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mbwana Samatta takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gautier Lloris attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thomas Meunier receives a yellow card.
41
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayumu Seko receives a yellow card.
34
Attempt Attempt
Ngal Ayel Mukau takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Issa Soumare scores with a header.
29
Update Update
Goal! Hakon Arnar Haraldsson scores to make it 1-0.
29
Attempt Attempt
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson scores with a right-footed shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson's header is saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ngal Ayel Mukau's left-footed shot is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Felix Correia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Gourna-Douath receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Guillaume Paradis.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw underscores LOSC Lille's struggle to translate possession dominance into goals against a determined Le Havre. With 67% ball control and halftime parity at 1-1, Lille's moderate deviation highlights inefficiency in the final third. Le Havre's defensive solidity earned a valuable point, aligning with the market's view despite Lille's favoritism. Absent red cards or major events, the result emphasizes tactical discipline over raw superiority. Both sides move forward with Lille needing sharper finishing and Le Havre building on resilience for future fixtures.

LOSC Lille vs Le Havre preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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