LOSC Lille vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Stade Pierre-Mauroy Thu, 12 Mar - 5:45 PM
Europa League
LOSC Lille LOSC
0 Winner 1
Aston Villa AVL
Full Time Thu, 12 Mar 5:45 PM
|
Goal
Ollie Watkins - 61'

CONTEXT

The match between LOSC Lille and Aston Villa is officially finished, resulting in a 1-0 away victory for Aston Villa. Both sides went into the halftime break locked at a 0-0 stalemate before the visitors eventually found the decisive breakthrough. This final outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Aston Villa as the stronger side with a 41.8% probability of winning, compared to a 28.9% chance for Lille and a 29.3% probability of a draw. However, the exact result still generated a significant deviation level of 58.2% in favor of Aston Villa. On the pitch, the battle was tightly contested, as demonstrated by the nearly identical possession figures. Aston Villa controlled 51% of the ball, leaving Lille with 49%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the 1-0 scoreline was consistent with either team's underlying shot quality. The match's efficiency shift proved to be completely in

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Aston Villa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sánchez Martínez

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Prieto López de Ceraín

2nd Assistant

A. Muñíz Ruiz

4th Official

R. Cabañero Martínez

1st Assistant

LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 81 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 81 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 78 W
Crvena Zvezda Rank: L
PAOK Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Basel Rank: 65 W
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Maccabi Tel Aviv Rank: W
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 64 L
Feyenoord Rank: 76 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LOSC Lille
28.88%
Draw
29.32%
Away Aston Villa
41.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.21
91.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LOSC Lille
Aston Villa
Power Score
77.21
91.24
League Position
18
2
Global Rank
76
9

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LOSC Lille — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LOSC Lille Aston Villa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.76
21.96
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.96
17.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LOSC Lille -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Aston Villa +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Aston Villa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LOSC Lille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LOSC Lille Aston Villa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LOSC Lille Aston Villa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LOSC Lille
Aston Villa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LOSC Lille LOSC Home
0 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-13T00:55:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Özer
Turkey
1 B. Özer
T. Santos Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
22 T. Santos Carvalho
C. Mbemba Mangulu
DR Congo
18 C. Mbemba Mangulu
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
R. Perraud
France
15 R. Perraud
B. André
Substitution
France
21 (C) B. André
N. Bentaleb
Algeria
6 N. Bentaleb
N. Mukau
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mukau
H. Haraldsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
G. Perrin
Substitution
France
28 G. Perrin
O. Giroud
France
9 O. Giroud
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 (C) E. Konsa Ngoyo
L. Bogarde
Netherlands
26 L. Bogarde
A. Mvom Onana
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
D. Soares de Paulo
Substitution
Brazil
21 D. Soares de Paulo
E. Buendía
Substitution
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
Substitution
England
27 M. Rogers
J. Sancho
Substitution
England
19 J. Sancho
O. Watkins
Substitution
England
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 12, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
Stadium :
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Capacity :
50186
Attendance :
40187
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Alejandro Muñíz Ruiz
José María Sánchez Martínez
Raúl Cabañero Martínez

Statistics

Possession
LOSC
48%
AVL
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 7
34 Dangerous attacks 44
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 85
5 Goal Attempts 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
7 Goal Kicks 6
9 Dribble Attempts 12
9 Successful Headers 12
14 Throwins 11
4 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

89 Attacks 97
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

5 Key Passes 7
35 Long Passes 43
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
381 Successful Passes 407
442 Passes 474
15 Successful Long Passes 20
86 Successful Passes Percentage 86

Defensive

15 Tackles 16
39 Duels Won 45
11 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 3

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 2
17 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

11 Fouls 12
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
6.28
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
7.04
18
Chancel Mbemba
Chancel Mbemba Defender
6.89
22
Tiago Santos
Tiago Santos Defender
6.38
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier
Defender66'
6.5
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
6.94
6
Nabil Bentaleb
Nabil Bentaleb Midfielder
7.62
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
6.12
35
Soriba Diaoune
Soriba Diaoune
Attacker83'
6.36
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Midfielder
6.4
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia
Attacker66'
6.69
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André (C) Midfielder
6.81
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Midfielder46'
6.43
28
Gaëtan Perrin
Gaëtan Perrin Midfielder
6.33
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Attacker52'
6.61
9
Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud Attacker
6.04
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.94
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa (C) Defender
7.18
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.92
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
7.03
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde Defender
7.14
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
7.12
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen
Defender83'
6.51
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Midfielder
6.97
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker83'
6.68
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz Midfielder
7.1
7
John McGinn
John McGinn
Midfielder77'
6.64
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
7.34
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.67
9
Harvey Elliott
Harvey Elliott
Midfielder90'
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
7.04
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham
Attacker77'
6.51

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Lucas Digne
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Harvey Elliott → Morgan Rogers
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Emiliano Martínez
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Soriba Diaoune → Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Leon Bailey → Jadon Sancho
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Ian Maatsen → Emiliano Buendía
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Tammy Abraham → Ollie Watkins
5th Substitution
77'
Event
John McGinn → Douglas Luiz
6th Substitution
Event
Félix Correia → Ngal'ayel Mukau
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Thomas Meunier → Tiago Santos
4th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Ollie Watkins
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo → Gaëtan Perrin
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Ayyoub Bouaddi → Benjamin André
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Digne of Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Morgan Rogers committed a foul against Aston Villa.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Olivier Giroud has been flagged for being offside.
90
Update Update
That's it! The match has concluded with a final score of Lille 0, Aston Villa 1.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Harvey Elliott comes on to replace Morgan Rogers.
90
Update Update
Lucas Digne has committed a foul against an opponent for Aston Villa.
90
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the scoreline reading Lille 0, Aston Villa 1.
89
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde of Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Félix Correia has been flagged for being offside.
84
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Leon Bailey from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Ian Maatsen comes on to replace Emiliano Buendía.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Soriba Diaoune replaces Hákon Haraldsson.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Leon Bailey comes on to replace Jadon Sancho.
82
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa took a right-footed shot from the center of the box that went just wide. The setup came from Morgan Rogers, who delivered a well-placed cross.
81
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
81
Update Update
Ayyoub Bouaddi from Lille committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
79
Update Update
Félix Correia from Lille committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Lucas Digne commits a handball for Aston Villa.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Tammy Abraham replaces Ollie Watkins.
77
Update Update
Chancel Mbemba from Lille has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
77
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa committed a foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: John McGinn comes on to replace Douglas Luiz.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Amadou Onana allowed the ball to go out.
75
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Emiliano Martínez from Aston Villa makes a fantastic save, diving to his right to keep the ball out. The assist for this play comes from Aïssa Mandi.
74
Update Update
Ollie Watkins of Aston Villa committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
73
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Félix Correia has been flagged for being offside.
70
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
69
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Berke Özer from Lille.
67
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi from Lille has earned a free kick in an attacking position.
67
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa committed a foul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Thomas Meunier comes on to replace Tiago Santos.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Félix Correia replaces Ngal'ayel Mukau.
65
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Douglas Luiz.
65
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
64
Update Update
Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Olivier Giroud committed a foul against Lille.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Lille. Ollie Watkins scores with a powerful header from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the net. The assist comes from Emiliano Buendía, who also delivered a header.
61
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Olivier Giroud from Lille attempts a header from the middle of the penalty area. However, Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa makes a fantastic save, denying the shot aimed at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Nabil Bentaleb.
59
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
59
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Romain Perraud from Lille.
56
Update Update
Aston Villa has been called for offside. Jadon Sancho is positioned beyond the last defender.
52
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Matias Fernandez-Pardo comes on to replace Gaëtan Perrin, who has sustained an injury.
52
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
51
Update Update
Match paused due to an injury to Gaëtan Perrin from Lille.
50
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
50
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Olivier Giroud has been flagged for being in an offside position.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Lamare Bogarde.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Jadon Sancho.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Ayyoub Bouaddi comes on to replace Benjamin André due to an injury.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Lille 0, Aston Villa 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Lille 0, Aston Villa 0.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Romain Perraud from Lille takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and wide to the right following a corner kick.
44
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Romain Perraud from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Emiliano Martínez, the Aston Villa goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Benjamin André.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Lucas Digne allowed the ball to go out.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Olivier Giroud from Lille attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box but sent it wide to the left.
40
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa committed a foul.
40
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Emiliano Buendía.
37
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Update Update
Benjamin André from Lille committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Lamare Bogarde from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Update Update
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille committed a foul.
34
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nabil Bentaleb from Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Ngal'ayel Mukau.
32
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Romain Perraud has been flagged for being offside.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Aïssa Mandi allowed the ball to go out.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Aïssa Mandi allowed the ball to go out.
27
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa commits a handball.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
20
Update Update
Jadon Sancho of Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
20
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille committed a foul.
19
Update Update
A header attempt from Chancel Mbemba of Lille is thwarted. The cross was delivered by Gaëtan Perrin.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lille after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
17
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
17
Update Update
Tiago Santos from Lille committed a handball foul.
11
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
10
Update Update
Match interruption - Aston Villa.
10
Update Update
Gaëtan Perrin from Lille committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Update Update
Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa committed a foul.
9
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
5
Update Update
Offside call against Lille. Benjamin André has been caught in an offside position.
2
Update Update
Romain Perraud from Lille has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
Morgan Rogers committed a foul against Aston Villa.
1
Update Update
Amadou Onana from Aston Villa committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Nabil Bentaleb from Lille has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Aston Villa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

LOSC Lille vs Aston Villa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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