Lorient vs Le Havre Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Lorient LOR
0 Winner 2
Le Havre LEH
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Issa Soumaré - 62'
Abdoulaye Faye - 33' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Lorient hosted Le Havre in a league encounter that concluded with a 0-2 victory for the away side. Le Havre struck first before the interval to lead 0-1 at halftime and maintained control after the restart by adding a second goal. Lorient held 60 percent possession yet failed to convert territorial dominance into meaningful opportunities or goals. Le Havre demonstrated composure and clinical finishing on the counter to secure the points. The stronger team on the day delivered a disciplined performance without conceding. No red cards were shown and the game flowed without major disruptions. Le Havre's result reflected their ability to capitalize on key moments despite lower possession figures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Lorient 0-2 Le Havre. Le Havre showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the match progression and final outcome.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals figures were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved given the mismatch with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undetermined due to the absence of supporting data.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal created decisive event impact that shaped the remainder of the contest.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion played no role as both teams finished with eleven players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Turpin

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Danos

1st Assistant

France

B. Pages

2nd Assistant

France

J. Stinat

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
VS
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: 62 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 D
Strasbourg Rank: 78 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 L
Paris Rank: 72 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 72 D
Auxerre Rank: 71 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lorient
41.12%
Draw
27.04%
Away Le Havre
31.84%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lorient
+40.88%
Draw
+25.12%
Le Havre
-66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.42
67.03
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lorient
Le Havre
Power Score
62.42
67.03
League Position
9
14
Global Rank
109
268

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lorient Le Havre

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Le Havre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lorient ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Le Havre
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lorient Le Havre
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lorient Le Havre
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lorient
Le Havre
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lorient
vs
Le Havre
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lorient Le Havre
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lorient 0.00
Le Havre 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lorient Le Havre
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lorient 0.00
Le Havre 0.00
Lorient
Le Havre
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LOR had peak pressure around 98'.
  • LOR started the game with stronger pressure.
LOR Pressure LEH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LOR reached the top pressure at 98' (76.28).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lorient LOR Home
5 matches
Le Havre LEH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
1
Goals
8
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
8
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
N. Adjei
Substitution
Ghana
32 N. Adjei
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
A. Faye
Senegal
25 A. Faye
P. Katseris
Greece
77 P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
Substitution
France
6 L. Abergel
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
J. Makengo
Substitution
France
17 J. Makengo
P. Pagis
Substitution
France
10 P. Pagis
Bamba Dieng
Substitution
Senegal
12 Bamba Dieng
Pitch
M. Diaw
Senegal
99 M. Diaw
E. Koffi Vinette
Substitution
France
27 E. Koffi Vinette
G. Lloris
France
4 G. Lloris
É. Kinkoue
France
6 É. Kinkoue
A. Sangante
Substitution
Senegal
93 A. Sangante
R. N'Diaye
Senegal
14 R. N'Diaye
Y. Kechta
Substitution
Morocco
8 Y. Kechta
I. Soumaré
Senegal
45 I. Soumaré
S. Boufal
Substitution
Morocco
17 S. Boufal
F. Doucouré
Substitution
Mali
13 F. Doucouré
M. Samatta
Tanzania
25 M. Samatta

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Capacity :
18110
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Clément Turpin
Nicolas Danos
Benjamin Pages
Jeremy Stinat

Statistics

Possession
LOR
57%
LEH
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 3
70 Dangerous attacks 30
60 Possession 40
5 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Throwins 15
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
8 Goal Kicks 9
11 Successful Headers 20
5 Successful Dribbles 9
16 Dribble Attempts 14
3 Goal Attempts 3
1 Injuries 1
31 Ball Safe 31
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1

Attacking

113 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

85 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
46 Long Passes 64
481 Passes 328
430 Successful Passes 260
7 Key Passes 6
89 Successful Passes Percentage 79
39 Successful Long Passes 35

Defensive

4 Interceptions 8
33 Duels Won 53
3 Saves 2
8 Tackles 15

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 11
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
6.81
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
6.64
32
Nathaniel Adjei
Nathaniel Adjei Defender
6.61
5
Bamo Meïté
Bamo Meïté
Defender73'
6.73
6
Laurent Abergel
Laurent Abergel Midfielder
6.8
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom
Midfielder66'
6.93
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
6.82
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
6.92
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris Midfielder
6.71
10
Pablo Pagis
Pablo Pagis Attacker
7.27
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin
Attacker67'
6.7
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Attacker
6.93
28
Sambou Soumano
Sambou Soumano
Attacker81'
6.64
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Attacker
6.96
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane
Midfielder67'
6.73
Referee : Clément Turpin

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Defender
6.94
6
Étienne Youté Kinkoué
Étienne Youté Kinkoué Defender
6.61
27
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Enzo Koffi Vinette Defender
6.56
32
Timothée Pembélé
Timothée Pembélé
Defender46'
6.5
93
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante Defender
6.77
33
Georges Gomis
Georges Gomis
Defender90+3'
8
Yassine Kechta
Yassine Kechta Midfielder
6.58
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog
Midfielder73'
6.62
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Midfielder
6.71
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego
Defender73'
6.76
14
Rassoul Ndiaye
Rassoul Ndiaye Midfielder
6.98
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Midfielder
6.84
10
Felix Mambimbi
Felix Mambimbi
Attacker85'
6.61
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Midfielder
7.08
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Attacker
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Georges Gomis → Arouna Sangante
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Felix Mambimbi → Sofiane Boufal
9th Substitution
Event
Sambou Soumano → Bamba Dieng
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Bamo Meïté → Nathaniel Adjei
6th Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Simon Ebonog → Yassine Kechta
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Loïc Nego → Fodé Doucouré
7th Substitution
Event
Karim Dermane → Jean-Victor Makengo
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin → Pablo Pagis
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Arthur Avom → Laurent Abergel
2nd Substitution
66'
62'
Event
Issa Soumaré
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
46'
Event
Timothée Pembélé → Enzo Koffi Vinette
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Bamba Dieng
GoalkeeperSave
45+5'
45+2'
Event
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Laurent Abergel
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
41'
33'
Event
Abdoulaye Faye
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Georges Gomis is substituted off for Arouna Sangante.
90
Update Update
Montassar Talbi's header is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Arsene Kouassi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Noah Cadiou takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Dermane Karim's right-footed shot is blocked.
85
Update Update
Felix Mambimbi replaces Sofiane Boufal.
81
Update Update
Sambou Soumano is on, and Ahmadou Bamba Dieng is off.
73
Update Update
Loic Nego replaces Fode Doucoure.
73
Update Update
Bamo Meite replaces Nathaniel Adjei.
73
Update Update
Simon Ebonog is on, and Yassine Kechta is off.
68
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Dermane Karim replaces Jean Victor Makengo.
67
Update Update
Tosin Aiyegun comes on for Pablo Pagis.
66
Substitution Substitution
Arthur Avom is substituted off for Laurent Abergel.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Issa Soumare scores, making it 0-2.
62
Attempt Attempt
Issa Soumare takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
61
Attempt Attempt
Issa Soumare's left-footed shot is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Noah Cadiou takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Noah Cadiou receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Pagis takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jean Victor Makengo's left-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Timothee Pembele is on, and Enzo Koffi is off.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enzo Koffi receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng has had his penalty saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Jean Victor Makengo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Laurent Abergel receives a yellow card.
39
Attempt Attempt
Yassine Kechta takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mbwana Samatta scores an own goal, making it 1-0.
28
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Pagis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Issa Soumare takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Pagis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Le Havre's away success underlined their tactical discipline and ability to exploit limited chances against a possession-dominant Lorient side. The visitors protected their early advantage and added insurance after the break to close out a deserved result. Lorient's inability to translate control into goals exposed limitations in their attacking transitions. With no dismissals or major incidents the match remained a straightforward test of execution. Le Havre now carry momentum from this performance while Lorient must address their finishing efficiency in upcoming fixtures. The final 0-2 scoreline accurately captured the balance of play and key moments throughout the ninety minutes.

Lorient vs Le Havre preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.