Lokomotiv Moskva vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
RZD Arena Sun, 10 May - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
1 Winner 0
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
Full Time Sun, 10 May 4:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Aleksandr Rudenko - 4'
Goal
|
|
Red Card K. Andrade 12'

CONTEXT

Lokomotiv Moskva claimed a 1-0 victory against Baltika Kaliningrad in a match characterized by home dominance and a pivotal red card. The hosts opened the scoring in the first half, leading 1-0 at halftime with 65% possession compared to the visitors' 35%. Baltika struggled to generate threats throughout, while Lokomotiv controlled the tempo effectively. The second half shifted dramatically when Baltika received a red card, leaving them short-handed and distorting the game's balance significantly in Lokomotiv's favor. Despite the numerical superiority, the home side could not add to their lead, relying on defensive solidity to preserve the clean sheet. This outcome underscores Lokomotiv's status as the stronger team, with possession stats reflecting their command. The result shows a significant structural deviation aligned with pre-match assessments, though limited chance conversion kept the scoreline tight.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed significant structural deviation of 100% favoring Lokomotiv Moskva.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: Baltika's red card heavily influenced second-half possession and chances.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion identified as key second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Frolov

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.63
Yellow cards / match 3.49
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.61
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
1.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Zenit Rank: 80 D
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: 63 L
Akron Rank: 54 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
Krasnodar Rank: 76 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiv Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Baltika Kaliningrad
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.41
54.87
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiv Moskva
Baltika Kaliningrad
Power Score
70.41
54.87
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
201
352

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiv Moskva Baltika Kaliningrad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.85
29.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.57
23.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiv Moskva -0.66 Efficiency Index
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad +0.66 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Baltika Kaliningrad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiv Moskva Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Baltika Kaliningrad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiv Moskva
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiv Moskva Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.17
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.00
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.01
Lokomotiv Moskva
Baltika Kaliningrad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 81'.
  • Lokomotiv Moskva started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiv Moskva Pressure Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 81' (79.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Home
3 matches
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
7
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
E. Pogostnov
Substitution
Russia
59 E. Pogostnov
Lucas Fasson
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
D. Prutsev
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Karpukas
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
L. Vera
Substitution
Argentina
32 L. Vera
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
D. Vorobyev
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
Pitch
E. Lyubakov
Russia
44 E. Lyubakov
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
E. Anderson Gomez
Panama
21 E. Anderson Gomez
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
A. Mendel
Substitution
Russia
8 A. Mendel
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
D. Severino Lacerda
Substitution
Brazil
18 D. Severino Lacerda
T. Yenne
Substitution
Nigeria
15 T. Yenne
M. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
73 M. Petrov

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
RZD Arena
Capacity :
28800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anton Frolov

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiv Moskva
62%
Baltika Kaliningrad
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 9
70 Dangerous attacks 27
65 Possession 35
5 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
21 Successful Headers 22
20 Throwins 20
20 Dribble Attempts 14
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
8 Successful Dribbles 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Goal Kicks 6
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 6
95 Ball Safe 86

Attacking

126 Attacks 66
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

63 Long Passes 81
34 Successful Long Passes 26
508 Passes 273
83 Successful Passes Percentage 62
423 Successful Passes 169
54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

11 Interceptions 16
16 Tackles 23
57 Duels Won 61
3 Saves 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 12
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
59
Egor Pogostnov
Egor Pogostnov Defender
24
Maksim Nenakhov
Maksim Nenakhov
Defender23'
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera Midfielder
8
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Midfielder83'
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Attacker
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder83'
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Attacker
9
Sergey Pinyaev
Sergey Pinyaev
Midfielder68'
Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

44
Egor Lyubakov
Egor Lyubakov Goalkeeper
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson Defender
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Midfielder
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel Midfielder
5
Aymane Mourid
Aymane Mourid
Midfielder72'
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
14
Stefan Kovac
Stefan Kovac
Midfielder72'
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne Attacker
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker60'
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda Attacker
11
Yuriy Kovalev
Yuriy Kovalev
Midfielder46'
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov
Defender60'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Mingiyan Beveev
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nathan Gassama
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Zelimkhan Bakaev
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Vladislav Sarvelyi → Lucas Vera
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Dmitry Vorobyev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
72'
Event
Aymane Mourid → Andrey Mendel
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Stefan Kovac → Ilya Petrov
6th Substitution
Event
Sergey Pinyaev → Aleksandr Rudenko
5th Substitution
68'
66'
Event
Ilya Petrov
GoalkeeperSave
Event
Evgeniy Morozov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
64'
Event
Andrey Mendel
Penalty awarded
60'
Event
Chinonso Offor → T. Yenne
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Ivan Belikov → Maksim Petrov
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Yuriy Kovalev → Derik Lacerda
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Maksim Nenakhov → Egor Pogostnov
1st Substitution
23'
Event
Egor Pogostnov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'
12'
Event
K. Andrade
Foul / 1st Redcard
11'
Event
K. Andrade
Card adjusted
Event
Aleksandr Rudenko
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Yuri Kovalev's right-footed shot is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Sergey Pinyaev takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
83
Update Update
Vladislav Sarveli replaces Lucas Gabriel Vera.
83
Update Update
Nikita Saltykov comes on for Zelimkhan Bakaev.
82
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev's header is saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Belikov's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Chinonso Offor's header is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Chinonso Offor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Stefan Kovac comes on for Ilya Petrov.
72
Update Update
Aymane Mourid comes on for Andrey Mendel.
70
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Sergey Pinyaev comes on for Aleksandr Rudenko.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ilya Petrov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Evgeniy Morozov receives a yellow card.
64
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Andrey Mendel.
60
Substitution Substitution
Chinonso Offor is substituted off for Tenton Yenne.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Belikov comes on for Maksim Petrov.
54
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Nenakhov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Update Update
Yuri Kovalev replaces Derik Lacerda.
45
Attempt Attempt
Zelimkhan Bakaev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Zelimkhan Bakaev takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ilya Petrov takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Update Update
Maksim Nenakhov is on, and Egor Pogostnov is off.
20
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Mendel's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Tenton Yenne takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Dmitry Vorobyev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Rudenko scores with a left-footed shot.
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Aleksandr Rudenko scores with a left-footed shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Anton Frolov.

CONCLUSION

Lokomotiv Moskva's 1-0 triumph over Baltika Kaliningrad highlighted their control, with 65% possession and a first-half goal setting the tone at 1-0 halftime. Baltika's red card in the second half amplified the home advantage, leading to a significant 100% structural deviation in Lokomotiv's favor. Efficiency remained in line, and market alignment was confirmed, though absent xG data limits deeper insights into chance quality. The visitors' numerical disadvantage distorted play, yet Lokomotiv managed proceedings prudently without further goals. This result solidifies the stronger team's expected dominance in a low-scoring affair.

Lokomotiv Moskva vs Baltika Kaliningrad preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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