LNZ Cherkasy vs Oleksandria Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Cherkasy Arena Sat, 14 Mar - 11:00 AM

Premier League

LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy

Oleksandria Oleksandria

Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 11:00 AM

Mark Assinor - 90'

Ilya Putrya - 35' (P)

Bryan Castillo 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between LNZ Cherkasy and Oleksandria has finished with a comfortable 2-0 victory for the home side. LNZ Cherkasy took a 1-0 lead into the halftime break before ultimately securing the full-time win. This outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the hosts with a 62.9% win probability, compared to a 25.4% chance of a draw and just 11.8% for the visitors. Despite Oleksandria controlling 59% of the possession against LNZ Cherkasy's 41%, the away side was unable to translate their time on the ball into a positive result. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final scoreline aligned with the raw chance quality. However, the performance produced a significant statistical deviation favoring LNZ Cherkasy. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with pre-game projections. The match dynamics were heavily influenced by disciplinary issues, as Oleksandria was reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This dismissal caused a noticeable red card distortion in the second-half adjustments, blunting the visitors' possession advantage and allowing the stronger LNZ Cherkasy side to confidently close out the match.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: LNZ Cherkasy showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Blavatskiy

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Ostapchuk

1st Assistant

M. Kozyryatskiy

4th Official

V. Ponomarov

K. Nesterenko

2.43

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.64

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 2 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

LNZ Cherkasy

62.87%

Draw

25.35%

Oleksandria

11.77%

Team Power Ranking

56.34

46.82

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

LNZ Cherkasy

Oleksandria

Power Score

56.34

46.82

League Position

Global Rank

566

833

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

LNZ Cherkasy — Opponent-weighted form score

Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LNZ Cherkasy Oleksandria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

LNZ Cherkasy

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LNZ Cherkasy ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Oleksandria

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

31.83

15.76

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

15.76

31.83

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

LNZ Cherkasy +1.64 Efficiency Index

Oleksandria -1.64 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

LNZ Cherkasy

Oleksandria

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LNZ Cherkasy ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Oleksandria

Created Set-piece attacking threat

LNZ Cherkasy Oleksandria

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

LNZ Cherkasy Oleksandria

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

LNZ Cherkasy

Oleksandria

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy Home

5 matches

Oleksandria Oleksandria Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-4

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T00:41:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 5-3-2

12 O. Palamarchuk

33 I. Putria

25 O. Gorin

34 N. Muravskyi

14 A. Drambayev

17 D. Kuzyk

16 A. Ryabov

29 R. Didyk

7 A. Mykytyshyn

6 V. Tankovskiy

90 M. Assinor

72 N. Makarenko

23 M. Ogarkov

86 A. Bol

50 J. Behiratche

26 M. Ferreira Campos

91 B. Butko

5 F. do Nascimento Pereira

9 (C) D. Myshnov

67 M. Rodrigues Teixeira

27 T. Cara

37 P. Yade

General Information

Date & Time :

Mar 14, 2026, 11:00 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Stadium :

Cherkasy Arena

Capacity :

10321

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Roman Blavatskiy

Vasyl Ostapchuk

Maksim Kozyryatskiy

Statistics

Possession

LNZ Cherkasy

44%

Oleksandria

56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

3 Shots 4

41 Dangerous attacks 26

41 Possession 59

2 Corners 4

1 Free kicks 1

3 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

27 Throwins 19

68 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80

1 Hit Woodwork 0

19 Dribble Attempts 25

13 Successful Dribbles 20

4 Goal Kicks 10

1 Penalties 0

4 Substitutions 6

1 Assists 0

Attacking

73 Attacks 53

Possession

36 Long Passes 58

327 Passes 470

237 Successful Passes 381

21 Successful Long Passes 28

72 Successful Passes Percentage 81

58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

5 Tackles 4

3 Saves 2

18 Interceptions 18

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3

21 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

13 Fouls 5

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Roman Blavatskiy

Manager ▼

V. Ponomarov Coach

Starting XI ▼

Oleksiy Palamarchuk Goalkeeper

7.18

Oleksandr Drambayev Defender

7.11

Oleg Gorin Defender

6.32

Ilya Putrya Defender

7.76

Gennadiy Pasich

Defender80'

6.23

Nazariy Muravskyi Defender

6.74

Artur Mykytyshyn Midfielder

6.39

Abdul Awudu

Attacker58'

6.62

Artur Ryabov Midfielder

6.69

Denys Kuzyk Midfielder

7.25

Roman Didyk Midfielder

6.56

Yevgeniy Pastukh

Midfielder29'

6.47

Vyacheslav Tankovskyi Attacker

6.72

Shota Nonikashvili

Midfielder80'

6.49

Mark Assinor Attacker

7.48

Substitutes ▼

Yevgeniy Pastukh

Midfielder29'

6.47

Abdul Awudu

Attacker58'

6.62

Gennadiy Pasich

Defender80'

6.23

Shota Nonikashvili

Midfielder80'

6.49

Bench ▼

Dmytro Ledviy Goalkeeper

Kirill Samoylenko Goalkeeper

Ajdi Dajko Defender

Adam Yakubu Hassan Midfielder

Yegor Tverdokhlib Midfielder

Jewison Bennette Midfielder

Orest Lepskyi Attacker

Danylo Kravchuk Attacker

Referee : Roman Blavatskiy