Livingston vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Sun, 17 May - 1:00 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
1 Winner 4
Kilmarnock KIL
Full Time Sun, 17 May 1:00 PM
Round 38 2nd Phase
Stevie May - 19'
Goal
|
Goal
Joe Hugill - 58', 24'
Findlay Curtis - 53'
Nicky Clescenco - 34'

CONTEXT

Livingston hosted Kilmarnock in a match that concluded with a final score of 1-4. The home side held a 1-2 advantage at halftime before conceding two further goals without reply in the second period. Possession statistics showed Livingston with 52 percent compared to Kilmarnock's 48 percent. Kilmarnock entered as the stronger team and secured the victory. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. Pre-match metrics indicated a 61.4 percent deviation level classified as significant with the deviation attributed to Kilmarnock. The outcome proved consistent with available alignment indicators and reflected an efficiency shift recorded as in line with expectations. The game featured no second half adjustments or knockout tie elements.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock recorded a significant 61.4 percent structural deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with the stronger team's overall output.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for direct alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No recorded xG expectations were present in the match data set.
  • Event impact: Kilmarnock overturned a 1-2 halftime deficit to reach the 1-4 final score.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred and produced no measurable distortion effect.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Lee

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. MacLeod

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. Potter

2nd Assistant

Scotland

E. Anderson

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.39
Yellow cards / match 4.02
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.29
Livingston S. Arfield
S. Arfield
VS
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee United Rank: 61 D
Dundee Rank: 59 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 D
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 L
Hearts Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 60 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
35.59%
Draw
25.82%
Away Kilmarnock
38.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.11
60.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Kilmarnock
Power Score
52.11
60.07
League Position
12
11
Global Rank
666
479

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Kilmarnock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Livingston ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kilmarnock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Livingston Kilmarnock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Livingston Kilmarnock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Livingston
Kilmarnock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Livingston
vs
Kilmarnock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Livingston Kilmarnock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Livingston 0.00
Kilmarnock 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Livingston Kilmarnock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Livingston 0.00
Kilmarnock 0.00
Livingston
Kilmarnock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KIL had peak pressure around 54'.
  • LIV started the game with stronger pressure.
LIV Pressure KIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KIL reached the top pressure at 54' (79.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
21 matches
Kilmarnock KIL Away
Match Record
7
Wins
10
4
Draws
4
10
Losses
7
Goals
22
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
22
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0.99
xG
1.76
1.76
xGA
0.99

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T12:45:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
C. Kerr
Scotland
2 C. Kerr
B. Kabongolo
England
23 B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
Scotland
27 D. Wilson
C. Montaño Castillo
Colombia
26 C. Montaño Castillo
E. Danso
Substitution
Ghana
20 E. Danso
M. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
25 M. Tait
L. Smith
Substitution
Scotland
15 L. Smith
S. May
Scotland
17 S. May
B. McKay
Substitution
Scotland
10 B. McKay
R. Muirhead
Substitution
Scotland
9 R. Muirhead
Pitch
M. Stryjek
Poland
1 M. Stryjek
D. Thompson
Substitution
England
3 D. Thompson
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
G. Stanger
Substitution
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
T. Lowery
England
18 T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
Substitution
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
N. Serghei Clescenco
Substitution
Moldova
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
G. Kiltie
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 38 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity :
9672
Attendance :
3038
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ryan Lee
Ross MacLeod
Dougie Potter
Euan Anderson

Statistics

Possession
LIV
51%
KIL
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
3 Big Chances Created 4
2 Shots 6
62 Dangerous attacks 56
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Assists 4
5 Substitutions 5
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
14 Throwins 10
9 Goal Kicks 4
20 Dribble Attempts 18
9 Successful Dribbles 10
69 Ball Safe 63
6 Goal Attempts 10

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
89 Attacks 95

Possession

67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 72
61 Long Passes 39
41 Successful Long Passes 28
483 Successful Passes 471
546 Passes 516
88 Successful Passes Percentage 91
8 Key Passes 12

Defensive

0 Saves 3
39 Duels Won 39
6 Interceptions 9
13 Tackles 18

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 1
18 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.84
2
Cammy Kerr
Cammy Kerr Defender
6.78
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Defender
6.85
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Defender
6.69
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Defender
6.57
10
Barrie McKay
Barrie McKay Midfielder
6.78
29
Joshua Zimmerman
Joshua Zimmerman
Attacker56'
6.44
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Midfielder
6.83
36
Sam Culbert
Sam Culbert
Attacker66'
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Midfielder
6.81
20
Emmanuel Danso
Emmanuel Danso Midfielder
6.63
6
Aidan Denholm
Aidan Denholm
Midfielder56'
6.53
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait Midfielder
6.52
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati
Defender85'
6.52
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead Attacker
6.77
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble
Attacker56'
6.86
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.11
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Defender
6.63
—
Dominic Thompson
84'
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
6.8
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
6.64
25
Ethan Schilte-Brown
Ethan Schilte-Brown
Defender62'
6.71
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
6.69
8
Brad Lyons
Brad Lyons
Midfielder46'
6.76
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
6.92
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
6.61
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Midfielder
6.47
12
David Watson
David Watson
Midfielder66'
6.72
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
6.88
22
Jack Thomson
Jack Thomson
Midfielder62'
6.4
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
6.68
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
2
6.99

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Babacar Fati → Macaulay Tait
10th Substitution
85'
84'
Event
Euan Bowie → Dominic Thompson
9th Substitution
70'
Event
Brad Lyons 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Sam Culbert → Lewis Smith
7th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
David Watson → Nicky Clescenco
8th Substitution
62'
Event
Ethan Schilte-Brown → George Stanger
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Jack Thomson → Aaron Tshibola
6th Substitution
58'
Event
Joe Hugill
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Joel Nouble → Robbie Muirhead
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Joshua Zimmerman → Barrie McKay
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Aidan Denholm → Emmanuel Danso
2nd Substitution
56'
53'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
46'
Event
Brad Lyons  → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Dominic Thompson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Nicky Clescenco
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Emmanuel Danso
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
24'
Event
Joe Hugill
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Stevie May
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joshua Zimmerman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
David Watson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Lyons takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Sam Culbert's left-footed shot is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Steve May takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Update Update
Babacar Fati is on, and Macauley Tait is off.
84
Substitution Substitution
Euan Bowie is substituted for Dominic Thompson.
78
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Sam Culbert takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
David Watson replaces Nicky Clescenco.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sam Culbert comes on for Lewis Smith.
64
Attempt Attempt
Jack Thomson takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
62
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Brown is substituted for George Stanger.
62
Update Update
Jack Thomson replaces Aaron Tshibola.
60
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill's right-footed shot is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
Update Update
Aidan Denholm comes on for Emmanuel Danso.
56
Update Update
Jon Nouble comes on for Robbie Muirhead.
56
Update Update
Joshua Zimmerman replaces Barry McKay.
53
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis scores with a right-footed shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Steve May takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Bradley Lyons replaces Michael Schjonning Larsen.
34
Attempt Attempt
Nicky Clescenco takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
32
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a right-footed shot, but it misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
19
Update Update
Robbie Muirhead attempts a header, but it goes wide.
19
Attempt Attempt
Steve May takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
19
Attempt Attempt
Steve May takes a right-footed shot and scores.
14
Attempt Attempt
Michael Schjonning Larsen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
6
Update Update
Robbie Muirhead's header is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Kilmarnock completed a clear second half turnaround after trailing at the interval to claim a 1-4 away victory over Livingston. Even possession figures failed to translate into sustained home pressure once the stronger side adjusted its approach. The absence of dismissals kept the contest at eleven versus eleven throughout both halves. Significant deviation metrics correctly flagged the scale of Kilmarnock's dominance relative to initial projections. Efficiency readings matched the performance gap between the sides without requiring further adjustment. The result reinforced the pre-match assessment of team strength while highlighting Livingston's inability to protect its halftime lead. Overall the data profile remained internally consistent across structural and alignment measures.

Livingston vs Kilmarnock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.