Livingston vs Hearts Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Premiership
Hearts HeartsSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Livingston and Hearts has finished in a 2-2 draw. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Hearts entered the contest as the clear stronger team. The pre-match market gave the visiting side a 63.2% chance of victory, compared to just 14.8% for Livingston and 22% for a draw. Consequently, the final stalemate did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite the even scoreline—which was balanced at 1-1 at half-time—Hearts dominated the ball with 65% possession to Livingston's 35%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final outcome was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, both teams displayed finishing efficiency that was in line with their general attacking output throughout the game. A pivotal moment in the match was the dismissal of a Hearts player. The away side's red card introduced a clear distortion into the game's dynamics, particularly in the second half. This disciplinary issue likely hindered the favorites' ability to capitalize on their significant possession advantage, ultimately forcing them to settle for a shared point on the road.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Hearts showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
- Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
K. Clancy
Other match officials
J. Bell
1st Assistant
D. Dunne
2nd Assistant
S. Murdoch
4th Official


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Livingston
HeartsTeam Power Ranking
i
51.68
72.21
Livingston
HeartsForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Livingston
Hearts

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Livingston ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Livingston ⚠ Proxy
Livingston Hearts
Livingston Hearts
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Livingston
Livingston Hearts


Livingston Hearts


Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:03:12+00:00
STARTING XI
Livingston
Hearts






















































General Information
Next Match

Livingston
vs

Dundee United
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Away

Hearts
vs

Motherwell
League: Premiership
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
LivingstonManager ▼

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Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




HeartsManager ▼

Starting XI ▼















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Bench ▼





Events
CONCLUSION
Livingston vs Hearts preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary