Livingston vs Aberdeen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
Livingston LIV
2 – 2
Aberdeen ABE
Full Time Fri, 1 May 6:45 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Robbie Muirhead - 78'
Joel Nouble - 47'
Goal
|
Goal
Danny Finlayson - 71' (Own Goal)
Mitchel Frame - 24'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Livingston 2–2 Aberdeen. The match ended in a draw. Aberdeen showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match displayed moderate 8.5% structural deviation favoring Aberdeen.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Final draw outcome aligned with pre-match market consensus.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures precluded expectations analysis.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards altered game dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Scott

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Dunne

1st Assistant

R. Nelson

2nd Assistant

G. Duncan

4th Official

Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
0.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Hearts Rank: 74 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
St. Mirren Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 64 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
4.06%
Draw
91.5%
Away Aberdeen
4.44%

Movement

Changes since opening
Livingston
-0.4%
Draw
+1.47%
Aberdeen
-1.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.68
58.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Aberdeen
Power Score
52.68
58.47
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
650
530

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Aberdeen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Livingston

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Livingston ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.20
18.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.40
37.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Livingston +1.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Aberdeen -1.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Livingston
Aberdeen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Livingston ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Livingston Aberdeen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Livingston Aberdeen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Livingston
Aberdeen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Livingston
vs
Aberdeen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Livingston Aberdeen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Livingston 0.31
Aberdeen 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Livingston Aberdeen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Livingston 0.05
Aberdeen 0.04
Livingston
Aberdeen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LIV had peak pressure around 51'.
  • LIV started the game with stronger pressure.
LIV Pressure ABE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LIV reached the top pressure at 51' (83.41).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
26 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
15
7
Draws
7
15
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
20
-24
Goal Difference
+24

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:04:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
J. Prior
France
28 J. Prior
B. Kabongolo
England
23 B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
Substitution
Scotland
27 D. Wilson
R. McGowan
Australia
5 R. McGowan
D. Finlayson
Northern Ireland
19 D. Finlayson
S. Arfield
Substitution
Canada
37 S. Arfield
M. Sylla
France
24 M. Sylla
C. Montaño Castillo
Substitution
Colombia
26 C. Montaño Castillo
L. Smith
Scotland
15 L. Smith
S. May
Substitution
Scotland
17 S. May
J. Nouble
Substitution
England
7 J. Nouble
Pitch
D. Mitov
Bulgaria
1 D. Mitov
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
Substitution
Scotland
22 J. Milne
M. Frame
Substitution
Scotland
3 M. Frame
A. Aremu
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
D. Geiger
Substitution
Germany
8 D. Geiger
A. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
28 A. Jensen
S. Armstrong
Scotland
16 S. Armstrong
K. Nisbet
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet
T. Olusanya
Substitution
England
20 T. Olusanya

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity :
9672
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Calum Scott
David Dunne
Ross Nelson
Gavin Duncan

Statistics

Possession
LIV
52%
ABE
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 3
52 Dangerous attacks 44
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Successful Dribbles 3
15 Throwins 14
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
21 Dribble Attempts 6
0 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 8
77 Ball Safe 69
3 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

89 Attacks 94

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 73
27 Successful Long Passes 22
312 Successful Passes 308
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
415 Passes 421
62 Long Passes 64
12 Key Passes 4

Defensive

70 Duels Won 46
8 Interceptions 13
9 Tackles 14
1 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 22
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan Defender
6.62
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Defender
6.85
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Defender
6.56
25
Macaulay Tait
Macaulay Tait
Midfielder46'
6.5
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Midfielder
6.76
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Midfielder
6.79
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Midfielder
6.7
3
Babacar Fati
Babacar Fati
Defender59'
6.51
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Midfielder
6.58
10
Barrie McKay
Barrie McKay
Midfielder46'
6.68
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.89
9
Robbie Muirhead
Robbie Muirhead
Attacker71'
6.78
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacker
6.8
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
8
Scott Pittman
Scott Pittman
Attacker46'
6.73
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.83
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
6.73
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
6.74
5
Mats Knoester
Mats Knoester
Defender66'
6.86
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
6.58
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
6.76
42
Elvis Bwomono
Elvis Bwomono
Defender84'
6.42
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Midfielder
6.65
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen
Attacker74'
6.72
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
6.71
11
Nicolas Milanovic
Nicolas Milanovic
Attacker83'
6.58
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
6.86
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.86
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Attacker
6.97
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.54
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa
Midfielder74'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Topi Keskinen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Macaulay Tait
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
84'
Event
Elvis Bwomono → Mitchel Frame
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Nicolas Milanovic → Alexander Jensen
9th Substitution
Event
Danny Finlayson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Robbie Muirhead
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
74'
Event
Topi Keskinen → Dennis Geiger
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Ante Palaversa → Toyosi Olusanya
8th Substitution
Event
Robbie Muirhead → Joel Nouble
6th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Danny Finlayson
Header / 1st Own Goal
Event
Babacar Fati
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Mats Knoester → Jack Milne
5th Substitution
Event
Babacar Fati → Cristian Montano
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Joel Nouble
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
47'
Event
Barrie McKay → Scott Arfield
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Scott Pittman → Stevie May
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Macaulay Tait → Danny Wilson
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Mitchel Frame
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Muirhead takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Finlayson attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Milanovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Elvis Bwomono is on, and Mitchel Frame is off.
83
Update Update
Nicolas Milanovic is on, and Alexander Jensen is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Muirhead takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Muirhead scores with a left-footed shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Babacar Fati's left-footed shot is blocked.
74
Update Update
Topi Keskinen replaces Dennis Geiger.
74
Update Update
Ante Palaversa is on, and Olutoyosi Tajudeen Olusanya is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Own goal by Daniel Finlayson makes it 1-2.
71
Update Update
Robbie Muirhead replaces Jon Nouble.
66
Update Update
Mats Knoester replaces Jack Milne.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Update Update
Babacar Fati replaces Cristian Montano.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble's right-footed shot is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Mohamad Sylla takes a header, but it hits the post.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
46
Update Update
Macauley Tait replaces Danny Wilson.
46
Update Update
Macauley Tait replaces Danny Wilson.
46
Update Update
Barry McKay is on, and Scott Arfield is off.
46
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
39
Attempt Attempt
Danny Wilson takes a shot, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Steve May takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Stuart Armstrong takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Geiger's right-footed shot is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Mitchel Frame takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Nisbet takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Jon Nouble takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Brooklyn Kabongolo attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Brooklyn Kabongolo takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

This 2-2 stalemate epitomizes the unpredictability of the Scottish Premiership, where Livingston's second-half resurgence neutralized Aberdeen's early edge and superior reputation. Balanced possession reflected the tactical parity, with both squads demonstrating clinical finishing amid fluid transitions. Aberdeen's failure to hold their halftime lead highlights defensive vulnerabilities, while Livingston's grit earns vital points in their survival bid. The absence of disruptions allowed pure footballing merit to prevail, resulting in a fair reflection of the contest's intensity. Both managers will draw positives, though Aberdeen may rue missed opportunities to secure victory against a resilient foe.

Livingston vs Aberdeen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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