Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Anfield Sun, 15 Mar - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Liverpool LIV
1 – 1
Tottenham Hotspur TOT
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:30 PM
Dominik Szoboszlai - 18'
Goal
|
Goal
Richarlison  - 90'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur. The match ended in a draw. Liverpool showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 63%–37%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Liverpool showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Kavanagh

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Cook

1st Assistant

J. Mainwaring

2nd Assistant

T. Kirk

4th Official

Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
VS
Tottenham Hotspur I. Tudor
I. Tudor
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 100 D
Fulham Rank: 87 D
Leeds United Rank: 87 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 80 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 87 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 88 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 D
Brentford Rank: 90 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
Liverpool Rank: 95 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 86 L
31
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
31 - 12 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Liverpool
72.27%
Draw
16.06%
Away Tottenham Hotspur
11.67%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
93
83.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur
Power Score
93
83.72
League Position
5
16
Global Rank
6
38

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Tottenham Hotspur — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tottenham Hotspur

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.06
38.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.51
32.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Liverpool -0.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Tottenham Hotspur +0.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tottenham Hotspur
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Liverpool LIV Home
11 matches
Tottenham Hotspur TOT Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
5
Goals
16
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
16
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:40:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Becker
Brazil
1 A. Becker
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
J. Gomez
England
2 J. Gomez
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 (C) V. van Dijk
A. Robertson
Scotland
26 A. Robertson
R. Gravenberch
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
A. Mac Allister
Substitution
Argentina
10 A. Mac Allister
J. Frimpong
Substitution
Netherlands
30 J. Frimpong
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
R. Ngumoha
Substitution
England
73 R. Ngumoha
C. Gakpo
Substitution
Netherlands
18 C. Gakpo
Pitch
G. Vicario
Italy
1 G. Vicario
D. Spence
Substitution
England
24 D. Spence
R. Drăgușin
Romania
3 R. Drăgușin
K. Danso
Austria
4 K. Danso
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
23 (C) P. Porro Sauceda
M. Tel
Substitution
France
11 M. Tel
P. Sarr
Senegal
29 P. Sarr
A. Gray
England
14 A. Gray
J. de Souza Menezes
Substitution
Brazil
38 J. de Souza Menezes
D. Solanke
England
19 D. Solanke
R. de Andrade
Substitution
Brazil
9 R. de Andrade

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium :
Anfield
Capacity :
61276
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Chris Kavanagh
Daniel Cook
James Mainwaring
Thomas Kirk

Statistics

Possession
LIV
59%
TOT
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 6
64 Dangerous attacks 25
63 Possession 37
3 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

23 Throwins 25
12 Successful Dribbles 12
5 Goal Kicks 15
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
20 Dribble Attempts 16
14 Successful Headers 8
5 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 8
83 Ball Safe 82
0 Assists 1

Attacking

116 Attacks 74
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

550 Passes 319
461 Successful Passes 233
48 Long Passes 69
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
21 Successful Long Passes 26
84 Successful Passes Percentage 73
12 Key Passes 9

Defensive

13 Tackles 20
11 Interceptions 11
49 Duels Won 47
6 Saves 3

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Alisson
Alisson Goalkeeper
7.73
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez Defender
6.28
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk (C) Defender
7.12
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Defender
7.41
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Defender
6.03
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
6.78
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones
Midfielder64'
6.34
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
6.54
14
Federico Chiesa
Federico Chiesa
Attacker90+1'
6.6
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Midfielder
6.85
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah
Attacker64'
6.81
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7.34
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Midfielder
7.61
22
Hugo Ekitiké
Hugo Ekitiké
Attacker64'
6.81
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Attacker
6.99
42
Trey Nyoni
Trey Nyoni
Midfielder83'
6.48
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Guglielmo Vicario
Guglielmo Vicario Goalkeeper
6.75
3
Radu Drăgușin
Radu Drăgușin Defender
6.69
4
Kevin Danso
Kevin Danso Defender
6.8
23
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro (C) Defender
6.25
24
Djed Spence
Djed Spence Defender
7.2
52
Callum Olusesi
Callum Olusesi
Midfielder76'
6.56
11
Mathys Tel
Mathys Tel Midfielder
7.01
39
Randal Kolo Muani
Randal Kolo Muani
Attacker75'
7.09
14
Archie Gray
Archie Gray Midfielder
6.68
29
Pape Matar Sarr
Pape Matar Sarr Midfielder
7.12
38
Souza
Souza Midfielder
6.55
7
Xavi Simons
Xavi Simons
Midfielder56'
7.15
9
Richarlison
Richarlison Attacker
7.72
76
James Rowswell
James Rowswell
Defender90+6'
19
Dominic Solanke
Dominic Solanke Attacker
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
James Rowswell → Richarlison 
9th Substitution
Event
Federico Chiesa → Alexis Mac Allister
8th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Richarlison 
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Trey Nyoni → Cody Gakpo
7th Substitution
83'
76'
Event
Callum Olusesi → Djed Spence
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Randal Kolo Muani → Mathys Tel
5th Substitution
Event
Mohamed Salah → Jeremie Frimpong
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Hugo Ekitiké → Rio Ngumoha
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Curtis Jones → Florian Wirtz
3rd Substitution
64'
56'
Event
Xavi Simons → Souza
1st Substitution
48'
Event
Erkam Reşmen
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Dominik Szoboszlai
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
18'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Pedro Porro of Tottenham Hotspur attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but it went wide to the left following a corner kick.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Hugo Ekitiké from Liverpool takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Federico Chiesa.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Liverpool 1, Tottenham Hotspur 1. Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur has found the back of the net with a right-footed shot taken from the middle of the penalty area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after Dominik Szoboszlai allowed the ball to go out.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Federico Chiesa comes on to replace Alexis Mac Allister.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: James Rowswell replaces Richarlison.
88
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Xavi Simons from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Alisson Becker of Liverpool makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Archie Gray.
87
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Trey Nyoni comes on to replace Cody Gakpo.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Radu Dragusin allowed the ball to go out.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Radu Dragusin allowed the ball to go out of play.
80
Update Update
Hugo Ekitiké from Liverpool earned a free kick in an offensive position.
78
Update Update
Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
78
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
77
Update Update
Richarlison of Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool earned a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Mohamed Salah from Liverpool took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Cody Gakpo.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Callum Olusesi comes on to replace Djed Spence.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Randal Kolo Muani is coming on to replace Mathys Tel.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Mathys Tel from Tottenham Hotspur fired a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. Djed Spence provided the assist.
75
Update Update
Mathys Tel of Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
75
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
74
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds. Djed Spence of Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper, Alisson Becker, who is positioned centrally in the goal. The assist came from Xavi Simons.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mohamed Salah of Liverpool took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but it went wide to the left after a quick counterattack.
71
Update Update
Dominik Szoboszlai from Liverpool committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Pape Matar Sarr from Tottenham Hotspur has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mohamed Salah from Liverpool fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Hugo Ekitiké.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Hugo Ekitiké of Liverpool attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Mohamed Salah after a quick counterattack.
68
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Alisson Becker of Liverpool makes a save in the upper center of the goal.
67
Update Update
Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool committed a foul.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Mohamed Salah is coming off, and Jeremie Frimpong is taking his place.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Curtis Jones comes on to replace Florian Wirtz.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Hugo Ekitiké replaces Rio Ngumoha.
63
Update Update
Alisson Becker of Liverpool has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
63
Update Update
Dominic Solanke committed a foul against Tottenham Hotspur.
58
Update Update
Xavi Simons from Tottenham Hotspur commits a handball.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Djed Spence allowed the ball to go out.
57
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted. The assist came from Florian Wirtz.
57
Corner Corner
Opportunity missed. Xavi Simons of Tottenham Hotspur headed the ball from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target following a corner kick.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tottenham Hotspur: Xavi Simons replaces Souza.
56
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Xavi Simons from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after Alisson Becker allowed the ball to go out.
55
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Alisson Becker of Liverpool makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt in the top left corner. The assist came from Guglielmo Vicario.
53
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Guglielmo Vicario, the Tottenham Hotspur goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Florian Wirtz.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal.
50
Update Update
Offside call against Tottenham Hotspur. Richarlison has been caught offside.
47
Update Update
Kevin Danso from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Florian Wirtz of Liverpool.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Liverpool leading Tottenham Hotspur 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after Jeremie Frimpong allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
45
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Alisson Becker of Liverpool makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Mathys Tel, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Liverpool leading Tottenham Hotspur 1-0.
44
Update Update
Andy Robertson from Liverpool committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Richarlison of Tottenham Hotspur attempted a header from the center of the box but failed to convert. The cross was delivered by Mathys Tel.
42
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
42
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
38
Update Update
Virgil van Dijk from Liverpool committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Richarlison from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Cody Gakpo from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
35
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
35
Update Update
Radu Dragusin committed a foul against Tottenham Hotspur.
34
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Rio Ngumoha from Liverpool attempts a left-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Florian Wirtz.
34
Update Update
Florian Wirtz commits a foul against Liverpool.
34
Update Update
Souza from Tottenham Hotspur has been awarded a free kick in their defensive area.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Pape Matar Sarr allowed the ball to go out.
30
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur earned a free kick in an offensive position.
28
Update Update
Dominic Solanke of Tottenham Hotspur has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Joe Gomez from Liverpool committed a foul.
26
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's deflected away. The assist came from Alexis Mac Allister.
22
Update Update
Radu Dragusin committed a foul on a Tottenham Hotspur player.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
21
Corner Corner
Goal! Liverpool takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Tottenham Hotspur. Dominik Szoboszlai scores for Liverpool, converting a free kick with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Souza committed a foul against a Tottenham Hotspur player.
17
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Djed Spence from Tottenham Hotspur takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Mathys Tel.
17
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
16
Update Update
Mathys Tel committed a foul against Tottenham Hotspur.
15
Update Update
Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool earned a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
Kevin Danso of Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.
13
Update Update
Alisson Becker of Liverpool has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after a play that resulted in Alisson Becker allowing the ball out of play.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tottenham Hotspur after a save by Alisson Becker.
12
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort underway. Souza from Tottenham Hotspur takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Alisson Becker of Liverpool makes a great save, pushing it away to the top left corner.
10
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Cody Gakpo of Liverpool attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Florian Wirtz.
9
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
8
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Mathys Tel from Tottenham Hotspur.
3
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch from Liverpool has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Dominic Solanke from Tottenham Hotspur committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Liverpool exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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