Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Anfield Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Liverpool LIV
2 Winner 0
Fulham FUL
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Mohamed Salah - 40'
Rio Ngumoha - 36'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Liverpool and Fulham has finished, ending in a 2-0 victory for the home side. Liverpool led 2-0 at half-time and successfully protected their advantage in the second period, with no further goals scored by either team. Pre-match forecasts positioned Liverpool as overwhelming favorites, and the result reflected only minimal deviation from those expectations. The home team, identified as the stronger side, delivered a performance fully aligned with the pre-match projection, producing a straightforward win that stayed in line with anticipated efficiency levels. Possession was relatively balanced throughout, with Liverpool holding 53 percent to Fulham's 47 percent, though no xG data was available to provide further statistical context. No red cards were issued and no significant events disrupted the flow of play, allowing the contest to follow a predictable path consistent with Liverpool's superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Liverpool showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Taylor

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Beswick

1st Assistant

B. Antrobus

2nd Assistant

O. Langford

4th Official

Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
VS
Fulham M. Saraiva Da Silva
M. Saraiva Da Silva
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: L
West Ham United Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Burnley Rank: W
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
West Ham United Rank: L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Manchester City Rank: L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 9 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Liverpool
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Fulham
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.26
24.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Liverpool
Fulham
Power Score
25.26
24.98
League Position
5
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Fulham — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Liverpool Fulham

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fulham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fulham
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.19
46.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.70
40.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Liverpool -0.74 Efficiency Index
vs
Fulham +0.74 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Fulham
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fulham
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Liverpool Fulham
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Liverpool Fulham
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Fulham
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Liverpool
vs
Fulham
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Liverpool Fulham
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Liverpool 0.27
Fulham 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Liverpool Fulham
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Liverpool 0.00
Fulham 0.03
Liverpool
Fulham
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • FUL had peak pressure around 92'.
  • LIV started the game with stronger pressure.
LIV Pressure FUL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: FUL reached the top pressure at 92' (84.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Liverpool LIV Home
39 matches
Fulham FUL Away
Match Record
22
Wins
8
9
Draws
9
8
Losses
22
Goals
74
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
74
+35
Goal Difference
-35

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Mamardashvili
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
J. Frimpong
Substitution
Netherlands
30 J. Frimpong
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
A. Robertson
Scotland
26 A. Robertson
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
C. Jones
Substitution
England
17 C. Jones
M. Salah
Substitution
Egypt
11 M. Salah
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
7 F. Wirtz
R. Ngumoha
Substitution
England
73 R. Ngumoha
C. Gakpo
Netherlands
18 C. Gakpo
Pitch
B. Leno
Germany
1 B. Leno
A. Robinson
Substitution
United States
33 A. Robinson
C. Bassey
Nigeria
3 C. Bassey
J. Andersen
Denmark
5 J. Andersen
T. Castagne
Belgium
21 T. Castagne
A. Iwobi
Nigeria
17 A. Iwobi
S. Berge
Norway
16 S. Berge
O. Bobb
Substitution
Norway
14 O. Bobb
J. King
Substitution
England
24 J. King
H. Wilson
Substitution
Wales
8 H. Wilson
Rodrigo Muniz
Substitution
Brazil
9 Rodrigo Muniz

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Anfield
Capacity :
61276
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Black Antrobus
Oliver Langford

Statistics

Possession
LIV
53%
FUL
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 7
66 Dangerous attacks 59
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 9
6 Free kicks 14

Match Overview

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
8 Goal Kicks 6
26 Throwins 18
8 Successful Headers 13
5 Successful Dribbles 6
14 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Assists 0
1 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 9
82 Ball Safe 62
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

117 Attacks 82
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 86
441 Successful Passes 362
31 Successful Long Passes 26
15 Key Passes 15
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63
501 Passes 422
54 Long Passes 41

Defensive

17 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 14
4 Saves 3

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 30
2 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
26
Andrew Robertson
Andrew Robertson Defender
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Defender
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez
Defender69'
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Midfielder
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister
Midfielder68'
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
11
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah Midfielder
42
Trey Nyoni
Trey Nyoni
Midfielder90'
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Midfielder
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch
Midfielder46'
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Midfielder
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak
Attacker69'
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Attacker
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Bernd Leno
Bernd Leno Goalkeeper
3
Calvin Bassey
Calvin Bassey Defender
5
Joachim Andersen
Joachim Andersen Defender
21
Timothy Castagne
Timothy Castagne Defender
33
Antonee Robinson
Antonee Robinson Defender
30
Ryan Sessegnon
Ryan Sessegnon
Midfielder69'
8
Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson Midfielder
19
Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze
Attacker80'
14
Oscar Bobb
Oscar Bobb Midfielder
20
Saša Lukić
Saša Lukić
Midfielder46'
16
Sander Berge
Sander Berge Midfielder
17
Alex Iwobi
Alex Iwobi Midfielder
24
Josh King
Josh King Midfielder
32
Emile Smith Rowe
Emile Smith Rowe
Midfielder46'
9
Rodrigo Muniz
Rodrigo Muniz Attacker
7
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez
Attacker80'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Trey Nyoni → Mohamed Salah
10th Substitution
90'
80'
Event
Raúl Jiménez → Rodrigo Muniz
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Samuel Chukwueze → Harry Wilson
8th Substitution
Event
Joe Gomez → Jeremie Frimpong
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Alexander Isak → Rio Ngumoha
6th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Ryan Sessegnon → Antonee Robinson
7th Substitution
Event
Alexis Mac Allister → Florian Wirtz
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Ryan Gravenberch → Curtis Jones
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Saša Lukić → Oscar Bobb 
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Emile Smith Rowe → Josh King
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mohamed Salah
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
40'
Event
Rio Ngumoha
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
36'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Dominik Szoboszlai concedes it.
90
Corner Corner
Fulham have been awarded a corner after a concession by Alexander Isak.
90
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool is flagged for offside.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Trey Nyoni replaces Mohamed Salah.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Liverpool leading Fulham 2-0.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
89
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Chukwueze's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Sasa Lukic.
86
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Chukwueze's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Raúl Jiménez provided the assist.
86
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez from Fulham had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Samuel Chukwueze.
86
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez had a missed chance for Fulham, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing the target. The assist came from Samuel Chukwueze.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Gomez of Liverpool.
85
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Samuel Chukwueze, who provided a header.
84
Update Update
Alex Iwobi of Fulham won a free kick in an attacking position.
83
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alexis Mac Allister from Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Raúl Jiménez replaces Rodrigo Muniz.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Samuel Chukwueze replaces Harry Wilson.
78
Attempt Attempt
Emile Smith Rowe from Fulham had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed the target.
78
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sasa Lukic of Fulham.
77
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Salah's shot for Liverpool from a difficult position on the right is blocked.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Timothy Castagne concedes.
76
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo's left-footed shot from a difficult position on the left is blocked. Alexis Mac Allister provided the assist.
76
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Mohamed Salah of Liverpool shot with his left foot from the right side of the box after a corner.
76
Corner Corner
Missed chance for Liverpool. Virgil van Dijk headed the ball from close range but missed to the left. The assist came from Dominik Szoboszlai, who delivered a cross after a corner.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Harry Wilson concedes.
73
Update Update
Offside called against Liverpool. Dominik Szoboszlai is offside.
73
Corner Corner
Liverpool wins a corner after Joachim Andersen concedes.
73
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Mohamed Salah provided the assist.
72
Corner Corner
Joachim Andersen of Fulham missed a header from the center of the box. The chance was created by Harry Wilson's cross following a corner.
71
Corner Corner
Fulham win a corner after Virgil van Dijk concedes.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Ryan Sessegnon replaces Antonee Robinson.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Joe Gomez replaces Jeremie Frimpong.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Alexander Isak comes on for Rio Ngumoha.
68
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham committed a foul.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Alexis Mac Allister replaces Florian Wirtz.
68
Update Update
Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
68
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Timothy Castagne of Fulham heads the ball from the center of the box, but Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool saves it in the top left corner. The assist came from Alex Iwobi's cross.
67
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Dominik Szoboszlai concedes.
66
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Jeremie Frimpong concedes.
66
Corner Corner
Harry Wilson from Fulham had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box after a corner.
66
Attempt Attempt
Alex Iwobi's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
63
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Florian Wirtz concedes.
63
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz's header from close range is blocked after a cross from Harry Wilson.
62
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Ryan Gravenberch concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Virgil van Dijk concedes.
60
Attempt Attempt
Sander Berge's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Muniz's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Timothy Castagne provided the assist.
58
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool commits a foul.
58
Update Update
Harry Wilson from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool commits a foul.
57
Update Update
Calvin Bassey of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Sander Berge of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Dominik Szoboszlai of Liverpool.
54
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Antonee Robinson concedes.
53
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
52
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Calvin Bassey concedes.
48
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool commits a foul.
48
Update Update
Joachim Andersen of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Sasa Lukic of Fulham is called offside.
47
Update Update
Fulham is called offside. Sasa Lukic is the player in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Liverpool 2, Fulham 0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Liverpool leading Fulham 2-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Sasa Lukic replaces Oscar Bobb.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fulham: Emile Smith Rowe replaces Josh King.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Ryan Gravenberch replaces Curtis Jones due to injury.
44
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Curtis Jones from Liverpool.
43
Update Update
Jeremie Frimpong fouled a Liverpool player.
43
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Andy Robertson of Liverpool has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved.
43
Update Update
Oscar Bobb of Fulham won a free kick on the left wing.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool leads 2-0 after Mohamed Salah scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
39
Update Update
Florian Wirtz from Liverpool misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right. Dominik Szoboszlai provided the assist.
36
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Joachim Andersen of Fulham takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Liverpool lead 1-0 against Fulham. Rio Ngumoha scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the right corner, assisted by Florian Wirtz.
33
Update Update
Offside called against Liverpool. Mohamed Salah is offside.
33
Update Update
Harry Wilson from Fulham misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball high. The assist was provided by Sander Berge.
32
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Oscar Bobb of Fulham takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool, with an assist from Rodrigo Muniz.
30
Update Update
Timothy Castagne fouled a Fulham player.
30
Update Update
Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool won a free kick on the left wing.
29
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Alex Iwobi of Fulham takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Antonee Robinson.
28
Update Update
Cody Gakpo of Liverpool is flagged for offside.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Rio Ngumoha for Liverpool.
23
Update Update
Timothy Castagne of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
22
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Salah's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Florian Wirtz provided the assist.
20
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Mohamed Salah provided the assist.
20
Attempt Attempt
Cody Gakpo had a missed chance for Liverpool, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went just left of the goal. The assist came from Andy Robertson.
18
Corner Corner
Fulham wins a corner after Virgil van Dijk concedes.
17
Update Update
Fouled by Florian Wirtz of Liverpool.
17
Update Update
Josh King from Fulham won a free kick in defense.
13
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Mohamed Salah of Liverpool takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the right, but it is saved.
12
Update Update
Cody Gakpo from Liverpool misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box and sending the ball high.
11
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz is flagged for offside for Fulham.
11
Attempt Attempt
Andy Robertson's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
10
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz from Fulham committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz is flagged offside for Fulham.
8
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Sander Berge of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
6
Corner Corner
Liverpool wins a corner after Oscar Bobb concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Liverpool win a corner after Calvin Bassey concedes.
2
Update Update
Rodrigo Muniz of Fulham won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Fouled by Virgil van Dijk of Liverpool.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Liverpool exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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