Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Anfield Sat, 9 May - 11:30 AM
Premier League
Liverpool LIV
1 – 1
Chelsea CHE
Full Time Sat, 9 May 11:30 AM
Round 36 Regular Season
Ryan Gravenberch - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Enzo Fernández - 35'

CONTEXT

Liverpool and Chelsea delivered a pulsating 1-1 draw at Anfield in a Premier League showdown marked by balance and resilience. The hosts opened the scoring early in the first half, but Chelsea equalized before the break, leaving the halftime score at 1-1. Possession tilted slightly to the visitors at 51% against Liverpool's 49%, yet neither side dominated proceedings. As the designated stronger team, Liverpool pressed in the second half but found Chelsea's defense impenetrable, with no further goals materializing. The match unfolded without red cards or major disruptions, maintaining structural integrity throughout. This outcome, while aligning with pre-match market leanings toward a stalemate, revealed a significant 15% structural deviation in Liverpool's execution, underscoring the fine margins in elite football.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 15% structural deviation was recorded for Liverpool in the match.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations are unmeasurable given null xG differentials.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments notably impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary actions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Madley

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Wilkes

2nd Assistant

England

R. Madley

4th Official

England

L. Betts

1st Assistant

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.78
Yellow cards / match 3.66
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.18
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
VS
Chelsea C. McFarlane
C. McFarlane
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Everton Rank: 88 W
Fulham Rank: 86 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 L
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 85 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Manchester United Rank: 90 L
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Everton Rank: 88 L
Newcastle United Rank: 89 L
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 23 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Liverpool
7.79%
Draw
85.01%
Away Chelsea
7.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Liverpool
+0.6%
Draw
-2.31%
Chelsea
+1.69%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
92.14
88.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Liverpool
Chelsea
Power Score
92.14
88.43
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
7
17

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Liverpool Chelsea

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.20
15.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.49
20.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Liverpool +0.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Chelsea -0.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Chelsea
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Liverpool ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Liverpool Chelsea
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Liverpool Chelsea
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Liverpool
Chelsea
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Liverpool
vs
Chelsea
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Liverpool Chelsea
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Liverpool 0.21
Chelsea 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Liverpool Chelsea
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Liverpool 0.03
Chelsea 0.03
Liverpool
Chelsea
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CHE had peak pressure around 40'.
  • LIV started the game with stronger pressure.
LIV Pressure CHE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CHE reached the top pressure at 40' (77.96).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 73 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Liverpool LIV Home
73 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
24
Wins
26
23
Draws
23
26
Losses
24
Goals
80
Goals Scored
85
85
Goals Conceded
80
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:00:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Mamardashvili
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
C. Jones
England
17 C. Jones
I. Konaté
Substitution
France
5 I. Konaté
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
Milos Kerkez
Hungary
6 Milos Kerkez
R. Gravenberch
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
10 A. Mac Allister
J. Frimpong
Netherlands
30 J. Frimpong
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
R. Ngumoha
Substitution
England
73 R. Ngumoha
C. Gakpo
Substitution
Netherlands
18 C. Gakpo
Pitch
F. Jörgensen
Denmark
12 F. Jörgensen
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
L. Colwill
England
6 L. Colwill
W. Fofana
France
29 W. Fofana
M. Gusto
France
27 M. Gusto
M. Caicedo Corozo
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
A. Nascimento dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
C. Palmer
England
10 C. Palmer
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Anfield
Capacity :
61276
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robert Madley
Matthew Wilkes
Robert Madley
Lee Betts

Statistics

Possession
LIV
48%
CHE
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 1
38 Dangerous attacks 38
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
7 Goal Kicks 8
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
16 Throwins 17
67 Ball Safe 60
5 Goal Attempts 6
18 Dribble Attempts 14
8 Successful Dribbles 10
8 Successful Headers 9
3 Substitutions 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

13 Successful Long Passes 9
388 Successful Passes 431
462 Passes 500
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
7 Key Passes 4
42 Long Passes 42
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 21

Defensive

2 Saves 2
42 Duels Won 55
7 Interceptions 10
10 Tackles 19

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 7
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Robert Madley

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez
Defender77'
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Defender
17
Curtis Jones
Curtis Jones Defender
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Midfielder
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
73
Rio Ngumoha
Rio Ngumoha Midfielder
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak
Attacker67'
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo Attacker
14
Federico Chiesa
Federico Chiesa
Attacker77'
Referee : Robert Madley

Starting XI ▼

12
Filip Jørgensen
Filip Jørgensen Goalkeeper
6
Levi Colwill
Levi Colwill Defender
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Midfielder
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
17
Andrey Santos
Andrey Santos Midfielder
24
Reece James
Reece James
Defender63'
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alexis Mac Allister
Persistent fouling / 6th Yellowcard
90+4'
89'
Event
Moisés Caicedo
Handball / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Joe Gomez
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
88'
83'
Event
Marc Cucurella
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Joe Gomez → Ibrahima Konaté
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Federico Chiesa → Cody Gakpo
3rd Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Enzo Fernández
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
71'
Event
Calum McFarlane
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Alexander Isak → Rio Ngumoha
2nd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Jorrel Hato
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
63'
Event
Reece James  → Andrey Santos
1st Substitution
50'
Event
Cole Palmer
Goal disallowed
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Enzo Fernández
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ryan Gravenberch
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Mac Allister receives a yellow card.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moises Caicedo receives a yellow card.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joseph Gomez receives a yellow card.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marc Cucurella receives a yellow card.
79
Update Update
Virgil van Dijk takes a header, but it hits the post.
77
Update Update
Joseph Gomez replaces Ibrahima Konate.
77
Update Update
Federico Chiesa comes on for Cody Gakpo.
76
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enzo Fernandez receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
67
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Isak is substituted for Rio Ngumoha.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jorrel Hato receives a yellow card.
63
Substitution Substitution
Reece James is substituted for Andrey Santos.
59
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
49
Attempt Attempt
Cole Jermaine Palmer scores with a left-footed shot.
48
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister takes a header, but it misses the target.
39
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Enzo Fernandez scores with a right-footed shot.
28
Attempt Attempt
Marc Cucurella takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Virgil van Dijk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Jiro Gravenberch takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
5
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Szoboszlai takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

This 1-1 stalemate at Anfield highlights Chelsea's knack for securing points on the road against superior foes, frustrating Liverpool's title aspirations. The Reds, despite their stronger billing, couldn't capitalize on home advantage, exposing vulnerabilities in converting pressure into goals. Even possession and a level halftime score reflected tactical parity, with no reds altering the narrative. While efficiency held steady, the significant structural deviation for Liverpool points to execution gaps. Both clubs depart with a point that could loom large in the season's endgame, fueling momentum for upcoming fixtures in their respective campaigns.

Liverpool vs Chelsea preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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