Lillestrøm vs Start Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Åråsen Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 12:00 PM

Eliteserien

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm

Start Start

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 12:00 PM

Round 4 Regular Season

Felix Vá - 68'

Markus Karlsbakk - 45+3', 17'

Ousmane Diallo Toure - 80'

CONTEXT

The match between Lillestrøm and Start is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had heavily favored Lillestrøm. The home side underperformed relative to those forecasts, producing an outcome that did not align with the pre-match projection and was not consistent with the anticipated result. Lillestrøm held 60 percent possession to Start’s 40 percent but were unable to turn that control into a victory. No xG data is available to assess chance quality, and no red cards occurred to alter the flow of play. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, yet the final score still represented a clear shortfall for the stronger team. Overall the draw highlighted Lillestrøm’s inability to meet the level projected before kickoff. Start claimed a valuable point on the road against a side expected to dominate, underscoring the gap between expectation and execution across the full match.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Saggi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Al-Hatem

4th Official

J. Valstadsve

2nd Assistant

A. Olav Dale

1st Assistant

H. Ødegaard

A. Karadas

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.67

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

10 - 5 - 7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lillestrøm

97.84%

Draw

1.92%

Start

0.24%

Team Power Ranking

29.55

14.69

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lillestrøm

Start

Power Score

29.55

14.69

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score

Start — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lillestrøm Start

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Start

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Start

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

22.58

30.75

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

30.75

22.58

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Lillestrøm -0.84 Efficiency Index

Start +0.84 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Lillestrøm

Start

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lillestrøm ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Start

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lillestrøm Start

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lillestrøm Start

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lillestrøm

Start

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lillestrøm

Start

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lillestrøm Start

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lillestrøm Start

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lillestrøm

Start

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Start had peak pressure around 86'.
Lillestrøm started the game with stronger pressure.

Lillestrøm Pressure Start Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Start reached the top pressure at 86' (91.77).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Home

22 matches

Start Start Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-3

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 5-3-2

12 P. Dahlberg

2 L. Ranger

5 S. Foss

28 L. Gabrielsen

3 S. Ottesen

29 Y. Ibrahimaj

15 S. Drammeh

8 M. Karlsbakk

17 E. Bugale Kitolano

20 V. António Félix

10 T. Lehne Olsen

1 J. Larsen

16 T. Strannegard

19 K. Tønnessen

6 J. Norheim

29 E. Reitan

18 M. Ugland

23 E. Segberg

30 L. Gausdal

11 E. Schulze

17 J. Cornelius

22 J. Ampofo

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 12:00 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 4 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Åråsen Stadion

Capacity :

12250

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Rohit Saggi

Ali Al-Hatem

Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve

Anders Olav Dale

Statistics

Possession

Lillestrøm

57%

Start

43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 0

8 Shots 6

51 Dangerous attacks 46

60 Possession 40

3 Corners 5

19 Free kicks 8

2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 1

9 Goal Kicks 4

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23

29 Throwins 25

14 Dribble Attempts 13

89 Ball Safe 65

8 Goal Attempts 6

7 Successful Dribbles 3

4 Substitutions 5

1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 107

Possession

6 Key Passes 10

34 Successful Long Passes 38

390 Successful Passes 204

79 Successful Passes Percentage 64

75 Long Passes 95

496 Passes 321

45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

4 Saves 2

20 Tackles 18

8 Interceptions 13

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7

8 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

2 Offsides 3

8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Rohit Saggi

Manager ▼

H. Ødegaard Coach

Starting XI ▼

Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper

Lars Ranger Defender

Sturla Ottesen Defender

Sander Moen Foss Defender

Ruben Gabrielsen Defender

Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder

Salieu Drammeh Midfielder

Camil Jebara

Attacker72'

Eric Kitolano Midfielder

Gustav Nyheim

Attacker87'

Felix Vá Midfielder

Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen

Defender90+6'

Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder

Thomas Lehne Olsen Attacker

Kparobo Arierhi

Attacker72'

Substitutes ▼

Camil Jebara

Attacker72'

Kparobo Arierhi

Attacker72'

Gustav Nyheim

Attacker87'

Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen

Defender90+6'

Bench ▼

Stefan Hagerup Goalkeeper

John Kitolano Defender

Harald Woxen Midfielder

Linus Alperud Midfielder

Yaw Paintsil Midfielder

Referee : Rohit Saggi