Lens vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Bollaert-Delelis Yesterday - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Lens LEN
0 Winner 2
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Full Time Yesterday 7:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Ibrahim Mbaye - 90+3'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - 29'

CONTEXT

Paris Saint Germain delivered a solid 2-0 win over Lens at Stade Félix Bollaert, asserting dominance from the outset. The visitors struck first in the opening half, leading 1-0 at halftime, and added a second goal after the break to seal the points. Lens, playing at home, managed only 38% possession against PSG's commanding 62%, struggling to create meaningful chances. The Parisians' superior quality shone through, with no red cards disrupting the flow and allowing their game plan to unfold smoothly. As the pre-identified stronger team, PSG capitalized effectively, resulting in a significant 53.2% structural deviation in their favor. This outcome stayed true to market alignments, with efficiency holding steady throughout. Lens pushed valiantly in the second half but found PSG's defense impenetrable, underscoring the visitors' tactical discipline and clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PSG's 2-0 win featured a 53.2% significant structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations across the match.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment with the scoreline.
  • Market alignment: The final result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be measured due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No major events like second-half adjustments altered the game's trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Bastien

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Léonard

4th Official

France

H. Zakrani

1st Assistant

France

A. Berthomieu

2nd Assistant

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.53
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
VS
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
2.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.3
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 67 W
Nice Rank: 72 D
Brest Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 75 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: 73 W
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Toulouse Rank: 75 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lens
30.33%
Draw
22.92%
Away Paris Saint Germain
46.75%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lens
+29.86%
Draw
+13.38%
Paris Saint Germain
-43.24%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.6
95.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
Power Score
82.6
95.11
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
47
5

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Lens Opponent-weighted form score
Paris Saint Germain Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lens Paris Saint Germain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Lens

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris Saint Germain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lens Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lens Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lens
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lens Paris Saint Germain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lens Paris Saint Germain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEN had peak pressure around 50'.
  • LEN started the game with stronger pressure.
LEN Pressure PSG Pressure
Pressure Index: LEN reached the top pressure at 50' (95.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lens LEN Home
23 matches
Paris Saint Germain PSG Away
Match Record
4
Wins
12
7
Draws
7
12
Losses
4
Goals
23
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
23
-16
Goal Difference
+16

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
S. Baidoo
Substitution
Austria
6 S. Baidoo
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
R. Aguilar
Substitution
France
2 R. Aguilar
A. Thomasson
France
28 A. Thomasson
M. Sangare
Mali
8 M. Sangare
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
A. Sima
Substitution
Senegal
19 A. Sima
W. Saïd
Substitution
France
22 W. Saïd
O. Édouard
Substitution
France
11 O. Édouard
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
L. Hernández Pi
Substitution
France
21 L. Hernández Pi
L. Lopes Beraldo
Brazil
4 L. Lopes Beraldo
I. Zabarnyi
Ukraine
6 I. Zabarnyi
S. Mayulu
France
24 S. Mayulu
D. Doue
France
14 D. Doue
J. Gonçalves Neves
Substitution
Portugal
87 J. Gonçalves Neves
P. Fernández Sarmiento
27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
B. Barcola
Substitution
France
29 B. Barcola
O. Dembélé
Substitution
France
10 O. Dembélé
K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitution
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Capacity :
38223
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Léonard
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Berthomieu

Statistics

Possession
LEN
42%
PSG
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 24
38 Possession 62
6 Corners 3
3 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 24
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
11 Successful Headers 8
16 Dribble Attempts 27
7 Goal Kicks 13
4 Successful Dribbles 10
0 Assists 2
41 Ball Safe 66
13 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

102 Attacks 113
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

423 Passes 717
80 Successful Passes Percentage 88
48 Long Passes 65
17 Key Passes 8
23 Successful Long Passes 37
337 Successful Passes 633
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

14 Interceptions 11
23 Tackles 20
41 Duels Won 47
1 Saves 8

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 3
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

9 Fouls 3
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.88
2
Ruben Aguilar
Ruben Aguilar Defender
6.96
5
Andrija Bulatovic
Andrija Bulatovic
85'
6.83
6
Samson Baidoo
Samson Baidoo Defender
7.08
32
Kyllian Antonio
Kyllian Antonio
60'
7.24
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Defender
7.09
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.16
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.96
8
Mamadou Sangaré
Mamadou Sangaré Midfielder
7.27
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima Midfielder
6.75
7
Florian Sotoca
Florian Sotoca
85'
6.67
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Midfielder
7.11
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin
60'
7.31
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson Midfielder
7.24
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
6.85
9
Allan Saint-Maximin
Allan Saint-Maximin
61'
7.16
Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo Defender
7.19
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
Ilya Zabarnyi Defender
6.9
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández Defender
7
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz
61'
7.04
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Defender
7.1
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Midfielder
7.22
27
Pedro Fernández
Pedro Fernández Midfielder
6.86
87
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
7.14
54
Dimitri Lucea
Dimitri Lucea
76'
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
7.32
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
72'
6.79
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
7.57
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye
76'
6.82
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
7.11
17
Vitinha
Vitinha
46'
7.55

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Florian Sotoca Abdallah Sima
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Andrija Bulatovic Ruben Aguilar
9th Substitution
85'
76'
Event
Dimitri Lucea João Neves
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye Ousmane Dembélé
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Gonçalo Ramos Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
6th Substitution
Event
Allan Saint-Maximin Odsonne Édouard
4th Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Fabián Ruiz Lucas Hernández
5th Substitution
Event
Florian Thauvin Wesley Saïd 
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Kyllian Antonio Samson Baidoo 
2nd Substitution
60'
46'
Event
Vitinha Bradley Barcola
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Ilya Zabarnyi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Désiré Doué concedes.
90
Update Update
Andrija Bulatovic from Lens commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain lead 2-0 against Lens as Ibrahim Mbaye scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box after a quick counterattack.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
88
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
87
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Vitinha concedes.
87
Update Update
Florian Thauvin of Lens is flagged for offside.
86
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin from Lens misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the left.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Andrija Bulatovic replaces Ruben Aguilar.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Florian Sotoca replaces Abdallah Sima.
82
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdallah Sima of Lens.
81
Update Update
Gonçalo Ramos of Paris Saint Germain is flagged for offside.
80
Update Update
Gonçalo Ramos of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Gonçalo Ramos of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens commits a foul.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Dimitri Lucea replaces João Neves.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Ibrahim Mbaye replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
74
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima from Lens hits the right post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Florian Thauvin after a fast break.
73
Attempt Attempt
Allan Saint-Maximin's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Florian Thauvin provided the assist.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Gonçalo Ramos replaces Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Illia Zabarnyi concedes.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after being conceded by Illia Zabarnyi.
63
Corner Corner
Lens makes a new attacking attempt. Matthieu Udol's header from the left side of the box is saved in the left corner by Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint Germain, with the assist from Allan Saint-Maximin.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Fabián Ruiz replaces Lucas Hernández.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Allan Saint-Maximin replaces Odsonne Édouard.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Kyllian Antonio replaces Samson Baidoo due to injury.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lens: Florian Thauvin replaces Wesley Saïd.
58
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Samson Baidoo from Lens.
56
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, sending the ball to the left. João Neves provided the assist.
55
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens commits a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Odsonne Édouard from Lens shoots with his left foot from the center of the box but the ball goes high.
54
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Abdallah Sima from Lens takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by Matvey Safonov, the goalkeeper for Paris Saint Germain. The assist comes from Matthieu Udol.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after being conceded by Mamadou Sangaré.
50
Update Update
Désiré Doué's header from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Ousmane Dembélé's cross.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Ismaëlo Ganiou concedes.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Ismaëlo Ganiou concedes.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Thomasson of Lens.
48
Update Update
João Neves from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
46
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima from Lens attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper Matvey Safonov, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Odsonne Édouard.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Illia Zabarnyi of Paris Saint Germain receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Corner Corner
Lens wins a corner after Matvey Safonov concedes.
45
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi fouled a player from Paris Saint Germain.
45
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Mamadou Sangaré from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lens 0, Paris Saint Germain 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Wesley Saïd of Lens takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint Germain saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist comes from Ruben Aguilar's cross.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Lens 0, Paris Saint Germain 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Vitinha replaces Bradley Barcola.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Robin Risser concedes.
43
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint Germain shoots with his right foot from the right side of the box, but Robin Risser of Lens saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Bradley Barcola.
41
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima from Lens had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went close and missed. Adrien Thomasson provided the assist.
39
Corner Corner
Abdallah Sima from Lens missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Adrien Thomasson, who provided a cross after a corner.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after Matvey Safonov concedes.
38
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Abdallah Sima from Lens takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Matvey Safonov from Paris Saint Germain saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist was made by Odsonne Édouard.
36
Update Update
Wesley Saïd from Lens misses a chance as his header from the center of the box goes over the bar. The assist came from Ruben Aguilar's cross.
33
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Adrien Thomasson from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
32
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
31
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Wesley Saïd of Lens.
29
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain takes the lead 1-0 against Lens. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Ousmane Dembélé's through ball.
27
Update Update
Abdallah Sima from Lens is caught offside.
24
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Édouard from Lens misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high, assisted by Ismaëlo Ganiou.
23
Update Update
Mamadou Sangaré from Lens won a free kick on the left wing.
23
Update Update
Fouled by Dro Fernández of Paris Saint Germain.
20
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson's header from the center of the box is blocked.
20
Corner Corner
Wesley Saïd of Lens attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint Germain saves it in the right corner.
18
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Odsonne Édouard from Lens takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Matvey Safonov, the goalkeeper for Paris Saint Germain, saves it in the center of the goal.
16
Update Update
Offside called against Lens. Adrien Thomasson is offside.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Ismaëlo Ganiou from Lens took a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it went high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Mamadou Sangaré.
14
Attempt Attempt
João Neves from Paris Saint Germain missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box to the left. Senny Mayulu provided the assist.
13
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick on the right wing.
13
Attempt Attempt
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked.
13
Update Update
Wesley Saïd of Lens commits a foul.
12
Update Update
Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in an attacking position.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Malang Sarr for Lens.
9
Attempt Attempt
Odsonne Édouard's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Mamadou Sangaré.
8
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima from Lens had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a cross from Matthieu Udol.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Dro Fernández from Paris Saint Germain took a right-footed shot from outside the box that was close but missed.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lens after a concession by Beraldo.

CONCLUSION

Paris Saint Germain's 2-0 triumph over Lens reinforces their status as Ligue 1 frontrunners, blending possession mastery with defensive resilience. Outpossessing the hosts by a wide margin, PSG controlled proceedings without facing expulsion threats, turning halftime dominance into a clean-sheet victory. Lens's home challenge faltered against the visitors' precision, highlighting tactical gaps exposed under pressure. This performance, marked by market consistency and efficiency poise, boosts PSG's momentum heading into upcoming fixtures. For Lens, the defeat prompts reflection on converting possession into threats, as PSG's structural edge proved decisive once more.

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