Lens vs Nantes Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Bollaert-Delelis Fri, 8 May - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Lens LEN
1 Winner 0
Nantes NAN
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Mezian Soares - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Lens clinched a hard-fought 1-0 win against Nantes in a match that remained goalless at halftime with the score locked at 0-0. The home side dominated proceedings, holding 64% possession compared to Nantes' 36%, showcasing their superiority as the stronger team. Despite the lack of xG data, Lens converted their control into a solitary goal, securing victory without any red cards disrupting play. The result aligned with pre-match expectations, featuring minimal structural deviation of 3.9% in favor of Lens. Efficiency remained in line with norms, and market alignment held true throughout. No second-half adjustments were necessary, as Lens maintained composure to edge out Nantes in a low-scoring affair that highlighted defensive resilience on both sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lens exhibited minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was confirmed as true.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Vernice

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Valnet

4th Official

France

F. Gonçalves de Araujo

1st Assistant

France

E. Finjean

2nd Assistant

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.88
Yellow cards / match 3.15
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
VS
Nantes V. Halilhodžić
V. Halilhodžić
2.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.67
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: 72 D
Brest Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 72 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 W
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Brest Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Metz Rank: 62 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lens
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Nantes
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lens
+1.39%
Draw
-1.39%
Nantes
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.31
66.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lens
Nantes
Power Score
82.31
66.92
League Position
2
17
Global Rank
48
273

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Nantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lens Nantes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nantes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lens ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nantes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lens Nantes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lens Nantes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lens
Nantes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lens
vs
Nantes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lens Nantes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lens 0.00
Nantes 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lens Nantes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lens 0.00
Nantes 0.00
Lens
Nantes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEN had peak pressure around 11'.
  • LEN started the game with stronger pressure.
LEN Pressure NAN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEN reached the top pressure at 11' (73.84).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lens LEN Home
17 matches
Nantes NAN Away
Match Record
8
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
8
Goals
26
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
26
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T18:30:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
R. Risser
France
40 R. Risser
P. Ganiou
France
25 P. Ganiou
S. Baidoo
Austria
6 S. Baidoo
M. Sarr
France
20 M. Sarr
A. Sima
Substitution
Senegal
19 A. Sima
A. Bulatović
Montenegro
5 A. Bulatović
A. Haidara
Substitution
Mali
21 A. Haidara
M. Udol
France
14 M. Udol
R. Fofana
Substitution
France
38 R. Fofana
W. Saïd
Substitution
France
22 W. Saïd
O. Édouard
Substitution
France
11 O. Édouard
Pitch
A. Lopes
Portugal
1 A. Lopes
F. Guilbert
Substitution
France
24 F. Guilbert
N. Cozza
France
3 N. Cozza
C. Collins Awaziem
Nigeria
6 C. Collins Awaziem
U. Radaković
Substitution
Serbia
26 U. Radaković
M. Acapandié
France
22 M. Acapandié
M. Kaba
Substitution
France
21 M. Kaba
I. Sissoko
Mali
28 I. Sissoko
J. Lepenant
France
8 J. Lepenant
M. Abline
Substitution
France
10 M. Abline
I. Kpene Ganago
Substitution
Cameroon
37 I. Kpene Ganago

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Capacity :
38223
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mathieu Vernice
Antoine Valnet
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
Erwan Finjean

Statistics

Possession
LEN
59%
NAN
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 6
45 Dangerous attacks 51
64 Possession 36
8 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

19 Successful Headers 18
8 Successful Dribbles 4
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
14 Dribble Attempts 10
19 Throwins 34
9 Ball Safe 8
1 Goal Attempts 0
10 Goal Kicks 6
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 70
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

385 Successful Passes 182
48 Long Passes 43
19 Successful Long Passes 14
82 Successful Passes Percentage 70
469 Passes 260
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
11 Key Passes 11

Defensive

7 Interceptions 15
54 Duels Won 52
12 Tackles 16
3 Saves 4

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 23
6 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

15 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Mathieu Vernice

Starting XI ▼

40
Robin Risser
Robin Risser Goalkeeper
6.86
6
Samson Baidoo
Samson Baidoo Defender
7.07
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.17
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou Defender
6.93
5
Andrija Bulatovic
Andrija Bulatovic Midfielder
6.77
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol Midfielder
7.08
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima Midfielder
6.74
—
Abdallah Sima
79'
21
Amadou Haidara
Amadou Haidara Midfielder
6.73
18
Fodé Sylla
Fodé Sylla
Midfielder65'
6.9
11
Odsonne Édouard
Odsonne Édouard Attacker
6.86
2
Ruben Aguilar
Ruben Aguilar
Defender59'
6.98
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Attacker
7.12
26
Anthony Bermont
Anthony Bermont
Midfielder79'
6.6
38
Rayan Fofana
Rayan Fofana Attacker
6.75
7
Florian Sotoca
Florian Sotoca
Attacker46'
6.66
Referee : Mathieu Vernice

Starting XI ▼

1
Anthony Lopes
Anthony Lopes Goalkeeper
6.93
3
Nicolas Cozza
Nicolas Cozza Defender
6.62
6
Chidozie Awaziem
Chidozie Awaziem Defender
6.87
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Defender
6.33
24
Frédéric Guilbert
Frédéric Guilbert Defender
7.05
17
Dehmaine Tabibou
Dehmaine Tabibou
Midfielder87'
6.68
26
Uros Radakovic
Uros Radakovic Defender
6.44
2
Ali Youssef
Ali Youssef
Defender66'
6.8
8
Johann Lepenant
Johann Lepenant Midfielder
6.88
21
Mohamed Kaba
Mohamed Kaba Midfielder
6.94
66
Louis Leroux
Louis Leroux
Midfielder82'
6.62
28
Ibrahima Sissoko
Ibrahima Sissoko Midfielder
6.58
10
Matthis Abline
Matthis Abline Attacker
6.86
19
Youssef El Arabi
Youssef El Arabi
Attacker82'
6.66
37
Ignatius Ganago
Ignatius Ganago Attacker
6.89
31
Mostafa Mohamed
Mostafa Mohamed
Attacker82'
6.73

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Dehmaine Tabibou → Frédéric Guilbert
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Louis Leroux → Mohamed Kaba
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Youssef El Arabi → Matthis Abline
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Mostafa Mohamed → Ignatius Ganago
9th Substitution
Event
Mezian Soares → Abdallah Sima
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Mezian Soares
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Anthony Bermont → Wesley Saïd 
5th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Ali Youssef
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Abdallah Sima
Goal disallowed
72'
66'
Event
Ali Youssef → Uros Radakovic
4th Substitution
Event
Fodé Sylla → Amadou Haidara 
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Ruben Aguilar → Odsonne Édouard
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Florian Sotoca → Rayan Fofana
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrija Bulatovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
36'
Event
Abdallah Sima
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Lopes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Malang Sarr takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Dehmaine Assoumani comes on for Frederic Guilbert.
86
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Bermont takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Update Update
Mostafa Mohamed Ahmed Abdalla comes on for Ignatius Kpene Ganago.
82
Update Update
Louis Leroux is on, and Mohamed Kaba is off.
82
Update Update
Youssef El Arabi comes on for Matthis Abline.
79
Update Update
Mezian Soares comes on for Abdallah Sima.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mezian Soares scores to make it 1-0.
78
Substitution Substitution
Anthony Bermont is substituted for Wesley Said.
77
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Bulatovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Youssef Ali receives a yellow card.
75
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
68
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Youssef Ali is on, and Uros Radakovic is off.
65
Update Update
Fode Sylla comes on for Amadou Haidara.
61
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahima Sissoko takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Update Update
Ruben Aguilar replaces Odsonne Edouard.
56
Attempt Attempt
Johann Lepenant takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Kaba's header is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Matthieu Udol takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Matthieu Udol takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Matthieu Udol takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima takes a header but misses the shot.
46
Update Update
Florian Sotoca comes on for Rayan Fofana.
43
Attempt Attempt
Ignatius Kpene Ganago attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Matthieu Udol takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrija Bulatovic receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Ignatius Kpene Ganago takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Matthis Abline takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Bulatovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Kaba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Abdallah Sima receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Fofana's right-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Update Update
Ignatius Kpene Ganago's header is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Bulatovic's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Lens' 1-0 triumph over Nantes underscores their home dominance and tactical discipline, converting 64% possession into a clean-sheet victory. Goalless at halftime, the second period saw Lens capitalize effectively without needing drastic changes. As the stronger side, they delivered a result with minimal deviation and full market alignment, reinforcing their consistency. Nantes' resilience kept the score tight, but lacked the punch to counter Lens' pressure. This outcome bodes well for Lens' campaign, highlighting defensive solidity and efficiency in a balanced encounter.

Lens vs Nantes preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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