Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Lodz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego Fri, 1 May - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
1 Winner 0
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz
Full Time Fri, 1 May 6:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Rafal Adamski - 90+7'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Legia Warszawa defeated Widzew Lodz 1-0 in a hard-fought Ekstraklasa encounter at home. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting a cautious opening period where neither side found the breakthrough. Legia dominated possession with 62% to Widzew's 38%, controlling the game's rhythm but facing stubborn resistance from the visitors' defense. The decisive goal arrived in the second half, securing victory for the stronger team on paper. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing a full 22 players throughout. Pre-match market assessments heavily favored Widzew, yet Legia delivered a significant 95.1% structural deviation in their favor. Efficiency metrics aligned with expectations, indicating steady performance without notable shifts. The lack of xG data hampers detailed chance quality evaluation, but possession and control underscored Legia's structural superiority. Widzew's resilience kept the scoreline tight despite the disparity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa recorded a significant 95.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents assessment of outcome consistency.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Myć

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Kupsik

1st Assistant

M. Kostrzewa

2nd Assistant

A. Borowiak

4th Official

Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
VS
Widzew Lodz A. Vukovic
A. Vukovic
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Radomiak Radom Rank: 58 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 D
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Legia Warszawa
4.93%
Draw
91.84%
Away Widzew Lodz
3.23%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.79
59.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Lodz
Power Score
64.79
59.29
League Position
10
16
Global Rank
335
498

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Widzew Lodz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Legia Warszawa Widzew Lodz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Widzew Lodz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.98
18.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.82
27.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Legia Warszawa +0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Widzew Lodz -0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Lodz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Widzew Lodz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Legia Warszawa Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Widzew Lodz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Lodz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Legia Warszawa
vs
Widzew Lodz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Legia Warszawa Widzew Lodz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Legia Warszawa 0.21
Widzew Lodz 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Widzew Lodz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Legia Warszawa 0.00
Widzew Lodz 0.01
Legia Warszawa
Widzew Lodz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Legia Warszawa had peak pressure around 42'.
  • Legia Warszawa started the game with stronger pressure.
Legia Warszawa Pressure Widzew Lodz Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Legia Warszawa reached the top pressure at 42' (95.11).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Home
19 matches
Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz Away
Match Record
14
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
14
Goals
32
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
32
+21
Goal Difference
-21

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:03:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
P. Wszołek
Substitution
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
B. Kapustka
Poland
67 B. Kapustka
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
D. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
44 D. Szymański
J. Nsamé
Substitution
Cameroon
18 J. Nsamé
M. Rajovic
Denmark
29 M. Rajovic
Pitch
B. Drągowski
Poland
1 B. Drągowski
S. Kozlovský
Slovakia
3 S. Kozlovský
S. Kapuadi
France
53 S. Kapuadi
P. Wisniewski
Poland
25 P. Wisniewski
M. Żyro
Poland
4 M. Żyro
C. Muñoz Obejero
Substitution
Spain
2 C. Muñoz Obejero
M. Fornalczyk
Substitution
Poland
7 M. Fornalczyk
E. Kornvig
Denmark
8 E. Kornvig
L. Selahi
Substitution
Albania
18 L. Selahi
F. Alvarez Rodríguez
Spain
10 F. Alvarez Rodríguez
S. Bergier
Substitution
Poland
99 S. Bergier

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Capacity :
31800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Wojciech Myć
Adam Kupsik
Mikołaj Kostrzewa
Aleksander Borowiak

Statistics

Possession
Legia Warszawa
59%
Widzew Lodz
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 3
67 Dangerous attacks 23
62 Possession 38
6 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
6 Goal Kicks 8
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
24 Throwins 16
14 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Successful Dribbles 5
61 Ball Safe 64
6 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

94 Attacks 53
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 75
42 Long Passes 56
490 Passes 305
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
409 Successful Passes 229
10 Key Passes 5
16 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

54 Duels Won 53
1 Saves 2
11 Interceptions 9
15 Tackles 13

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 10
10 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

15 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
6.68
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Defender
6.81
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender42'
6.77
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
6.66
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
6.91
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Defender
6.68
11
Kacper Chodyna
Kacper Chodyna
Midfielder77'
6.6
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.84
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.12
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
6.85
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski
Midfielder77'
6.55
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka Midfielder
6.98
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
6.92
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski
Attacker77'
6.87
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović Attacker
6.82
Referee : Wojciech Myć

Starting XI ▼

1
Bartlomiej Dragowski
Bartlomiej Dragowski Goalkeeper
6.8
2
Carlos Isaac
Carlos Isaac Defender
6.8
91
Marcel Krajewski
Marcel Krajewski
Defender82'
6.68
3
Samuel Kozlovský
Samuel Kozlovský Defender
6.69
4
Mateusz Zyro
Mateusz Zyro Defender
6.78
25
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Przemysław Wiśniewski Defender
7.06
53
Steve Kapuadi
Steve Kapuadi Defender
6.68
7
Mariusz Fornalczyk
Mariusz Fornalczyk Midfielder
6.71
22
Osman Bukari
Osman Bukari
Attacker78'
6.74
8
Emil Kornvig
Emil Kornvig Midfielder
6.96
10
Fran Álvarez
Fran Álvarez Midfielder
7.08
18
Lindon Selahi
Lindon Selahi Midfielder
6.83
77
Ángel Baena
Ángel Baena
Midfielder82'
6.62
99
Sebastian Bergier
Sebastian Bergier Attacker
6.95
9
Andi Zeqiri
Andi Zeqiri
Attacker90+1'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bartosz Kapustka
6th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Rafal Adamski
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+7'
90+6'
Event
Fran Álvarez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Kacper Chodyna
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Emil Kornvig
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Andi Zeqiri → Sebastian Bergier
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Ángel Baena → Lindon Selahi
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Marcel Krajewski → Carlos Isaac
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Osman Bukari → Mariusz Fornalczyk
6th Substitution
Event
Rafal Adamski → Jean-Pierre Nsame
3rd Substitution
77'
Event
Kacper Chodyna → Patryk Kun
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Wojciech Urbanski → Damian Szymanski
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Juergen Elitim
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Rúben Vinagre → Arkadiusz Reca
2nd Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Pawel Wszolek
1st Substitution
42'
Event
Pawel Wszolek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
17'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Wojcieh Urbanski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Andi Zeqiri comes on for Sebastian Bergier.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rafal Adamski receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski takes a left-footed shot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski takes a left-footed shot and scores.
89
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Bergier attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Update Update
Angel Baena Perez is on, and Lindon Selahi is off.
82
Update Update
Marcel Krajewski is on, and Carlos Isaac Munoz Obejero is off.
78
Update Update
Osman Bukari is on, and Mariusz Fornalczyk is off.
77
Update Update
Wojcieh Urbanski replaces Damian Szymanski.
77
Update Update
Kacper Chodyna is on, and Patryk Kun is off.
77
Update Update
Rafal Adamski comes on for Jean Pierre Nsame.
76
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Zyro takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Fran Alvarez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Isaac Munoz Obejero takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Update Update
Carlos Isaac Munoz Obejero's header is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Piatkowski attempts a header but misses the shot.
59
Update Update
Ruben Vinagre comes on for Arkadiusz Reca.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Update Update
Arkadiusz Reca comes on for Pawel Wszolek.
39
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame takes a header shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Lindon Selahi takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Bergier attempts a header but misses the shot.
6
Attempt Attempt
Emil Kornvig takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Mileta Rajovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Legia Warszawa's narrow 1-0 win over Widzew Lodz highlights their possession dominance translating into a crucial result. Holding 62% of the ball without red card interruptions allowed sustained pressure, culminating in a second-half goal. The significant structural deviation of 95.1% favored Legia against market expectations that undervalued their home edge. Efficiency staying in line reflects consistent execution. Absent xG data limits chance conversion insights, yet the halftime deadlock breaking post-interval shows tactical patience. As the designated stronger team, Legia capitalized on control, reinforcing their competitive standing in a low-scoring affair.

Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Lodz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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