Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego Sun, 22 Mar - 7:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
1 – 1
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 7:15 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Jean-Pierre Nsame - 71' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga - 6'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Legia Warszawa 1–0 Raków Częstochowa. The result saw Legia Warszawa take the points. Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
VS
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 61 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 W
Katowice Rank: 64 D
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 63 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 64 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Legia Warszawa
43.63%
Draw
27.53%
Away Raków Częstochowa
28.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.91
68.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Legia Warszawa
Raków Częstochowa
Power Score
63.91
68.83
League Position
15
6
Global Rank
361
221

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Legia Warszawa Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.48
27.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.61
36.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Legia Warszawa +0.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Raków Częstochowa -0.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Raków Częstochowa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Legia Warszawa Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Raków Częstochowa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Raków Częstochowa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Home
13 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
20
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:26:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 (C) R. Augustyniak
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
P. Wszołek
Substitution
Poland
7 P. Wszołek
D. Szymański
Poland
44 D. Szymański
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
P. Kun
Substitution
Poland
23 P. Kun
V. Bichakhchyan
Substitution
Armenia
21 V. Bichakhchyan
J. Nsamé
Substitution
Cameroon
18 J. Nsamé
R. Adamski
Poland
9 R. Adamski
Pitch
O. Zych
Poland
48 O. Zych
A. Mosór
Poland
2 A. Mosór
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
Z. Arsenić
Substitution
Croatia
24 (C) Z. Arsenić
A. Amorim Santos
Brazil
11 A. Amorim Santos
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
K. Struski
Substitution
Poland
23 K. Struski
J. Silva Rocha
Brazil
20 J. Silva Rocha
I. Brusberg
Substitution
Sweden
39 I. Brusberg
J. Brunes
Norway
18 J. Brunes
M. Diaby Fadiga
Substitution
France
80 M. Diaby Fadiga

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 22, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Capacity :
31800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Łukasz Kuźma
Bartosz Heinig
P. Podbielski
Aleksander Borowiak

Statistics

Possession
Legia Warszawa
53%
Raków Częstochowa
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
17 Shots 11
54 Dangerous attacks 34
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 3
10 Free kicks 18
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 8
19 Throwins 15
17 Dribble Attempts 8
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
5 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Injuries 4
4 Substitutions 4
10 Goal Attempts 8
78 Ball Safe 94
1 Penalties 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

101 Attacks 98
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

36 Long Passes 59
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
413 Passes 379
14 Successful Long Passes 20
341 Successful Passes 295
11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

15 Tackles 21
11 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 7
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

20 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
6.64
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak (C) Defender
6.85
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
6.87
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.8
7
Pawel Wszolek
Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
6.59
11
Kacper Chodyna
Kacper Chodyna
Midfielder73'
6.44
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.24
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
6.64
13
Arkadiusz Reca
Arkadiusz Reca
Defender86'
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
7.2
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
6.29
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
6.9
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović
Attacker73'
6.82
21
Vahan Bichakhchyan
Vahan Bichakhchyan Attacker
7.23
82
Kacper Urbanski
Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder85'
6.47
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

48
Oliwier Zych
Oliwier Zych Goalkeeper
6.47
2
Ariel Mosor
Ariel Mosor Defender
6.9
24
Zoran Arsenic
Zoran Arsenic (C) Defender
7.11
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas
Defender82'
6.69
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
6.68
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.65
11
Adriano
Adriano Midfielder
6.75
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
6.82
23
Karol Struski
Karol Struski Midfielder
6.77
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz
Defender63'
6.37
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
6.85
39
Isak Brusberg
Isak Brusberg Attacker
7.08
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat
Midfielder28'
6.64
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Attacker
6.88
10
Ivi López
Ivi López
Midfielder63'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Kacper Urbanski → Vahan Bichakhchyan
7th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Oskar Repka
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Stratos Svarnas → Zoran Arsenic
6th Substitution
Event
Mileta Rajović → Jean-Pierre Nsame
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Kacper Chodyna → Pawel Wszolek
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
71'
Event
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Penalty awarded
69'
63'
Event
Ivi López → Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Paweł Dawidowicz → Karol Struski
2nd Substitution
Event
Pawel Wszolek
3rd Yellowcard
59'
53'
Event
Marko Bulat
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Adriano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Marko Bulat → Isak Brusberg
1st Substitution
6'
Event
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.