Legia Warszawa vs Górnik Zabrze Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego Sat, 11 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 
1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 28 · Regular Season
Rafal Augustyniak - 82' (P)
|
Pawel Bochniewicz - 90+6'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Legia Warszawa and Górnik Zabrze is now finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams went into half-time level at 0-0, with each side scoring once after the break. No red cards were issued and the contest passed without major disciplinary incidents. Pre-match assessments positioned Legia Warszawa as the considerably stronger side, yet the draw marked a significant deviation from those expectations, particularly disappointing for the home team. Górnik Zabrze claimed the larger share of possession at 57% to Legia’s 43%, though expected goals data was unavailable to measure chance quality. The final result did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns rather than showing extreme variance. Overall the outcome highlighted Górnik’s ability to frustrate a favored opponent on the road.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
D. Kos
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
B. Heinig
1st Assistant
D. Bohonos
2nd Assistant
?. Karski
4th Official
M. Papszun
VS
M. Gašparík
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Radomiak Radom Rank: D
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Widzew Lodz Rank: D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: D
Katowice Rank: L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
26
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
26 - 7 - 7
7
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Legia Warszawa95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Górnik Zabrze0.19%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.56 25.48 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Legia Warszawa Górnik ZabrzePower Score
28.56
25.48
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Górnik Zabrze — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Legia Warszawa
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Górnik Zabrze
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.05
16.84
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.84
41.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Legia Warszawa +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Górnik Zabrze -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Legia Warszawa ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Górnik Zabrze
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Legia Warszawavs
Górnik Zabrze
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Legia Warszawa 0.19
Górnik Zabrze 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Legia Warszawa 0.02
Górnik Zabrze 0.01
Legia Warszawa
Górnik Zabrze
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Legia Warszawa had peak pressure around 59'.
- Legia Warszawa started the game with stronger pressure.
Legia Warszawa Pressure Górnik Zabrze Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Legia Warszawa reached the top pressure at 59' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Home
40 matches
Górnik Zabrze Górnik Zabrze Away
Match Record 26
Wins
7
7
Draws
7
7
Losses
26
Goals 83
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
83
+38
Goal Difference
-38
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T03:04:29+00:00
STARTING XI
Legia Warszawa Górnik Zabrze Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
89 O. Hindrich
91 K. Piątkowski
8 R. Augustyniak
12 R. Pankov
7 P. Wszołek
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
A. Jędrzejczyk
#5585'
44 D. Szymański
A. Reca
#1385'
23 P. Kun
K. Urbanski
#8267'
53 W. Urbański
E. Krasniqi
#7785'
29 M. Rajovic
9 R. Adamski
1 M. Łubik
K. Lukoszek
#1785'
64 E. Janža
4 P. Bochniewicz
26 R. Janicki
61 M. Sáček
J. Kubicki
#1463'
18 L. Ambros
8 P. Hellebrand
M. Rakoczy
#3685'
13 L. Sadílek
67 O. Zmrzlý
Y. Ikia Dimi
#746'
23 S. Liseth
R. Massimo
#1575'
33 M. Khlan
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 06:15 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
👥 Capacity :
31800
🎟️ Attendance :
26635
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Damian Kos
Bartosz Heinig
Dariusz Bohonos
Łukasz Karski
Next Match
Legia Warszawa
vs
Zagłębie Lubin
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Fri, 17 Apr - 6:30 PM
Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Górnik Zabrze
vs
Korona Kielce
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 3:30 PM
Venue: Arena Zabrze
Statistics
Possession
Legia Warszawa
45%
Górnik Zabrze
55%
Top Statistics
1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
1 Shots 2
73 Dangerous attacks 52
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
0 Assists 1
66 Ball Safe 107
7 Goal Attempts 5
0 Injuries 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
7 Goal Kicks 10
13 Throwins 14
19 Dribble Attempts 16
26 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
5 Successful Dribbles 10
4 Substitutions 5
Attacking
3 Big Chances Missed 1
99 Attacks 118
Possession
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
81 Successful Passes Percentage 84
47 Long Passes 64
24 Successful Long Passes 27
294 Successful Passes 422
362 Passes 505
11 Key Passes 5
Defensive
1 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 4
18 Tackles 21
Build-up
24 Total Crosses 13
7 Accurate Crosses 3
Discipline
14 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1
Lineup
Legia Warszawa Referee : Damian Kos
Manager ▼
M. Papszun Coach
Starting XI ▼
89 Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
8 Rafal Augustyniak Defender
12 Radovan Pankov Defender
91 Kamil Piatkowski Defender
7 Pawel Wszolek Midfielder
22 Juergen Elitim Midfielder
23 Patryk Kun Midfielder
13Arkadiusz Reca
Defender85'
44 Damian Szymanski Midfielder
55Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender85'
9 Rafal Adamski Attacker
29 Mileta Rajović Attacker
77Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker85'
53 Wojciech Urbanski Attacker
82Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder67'
Substitutes ▼
82Kacper Urbanski
Midfielder67'
13Arkadiusz Reca
Defender85'
55Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender85'
77Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker85'
Bench ▼
1 Kacper Tobiasz Goalkeeper
67 Bartosz Kapustka Midfielder
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
20 Jakub Zewlakow Attacker
99 Samuel Kovacik Attacker
Górnik Zabrze Referee : Damian Kos
Manager ▼
M. Gašparík Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Marcel Lubik Goalkeeper
4 Pawel Bochniewicz Defender
26 Rafal Janicki Defender
61 Michal Sacek Defender
64 Erik Janza Defender
17Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder85'
8 Patrik Hellebrand Midfielder
13 Lukas Sadilek Midfielder
36Michal Rakoczy
Midfielder85'
18 Lukas Ambros Midfielder
14Jaroslaw Kubicki
Midfielder63'
23 Sondre Liseth Attacker
7Yvan Ikia Dimi
Midfielder46'
33 Maksym Khlan Attacker
15Roberto Massimo
Midfielder75'
67 Ondrej Zmrzly Attacker
Substitutes ▼
7Yvan Ikia Dimi
Midfielder46'
14Jaroslaw Kubicki
Midfielder63'
15Roberto Massimo
Midfielder75'
17Kamil Lukoszek
Midfielder85'
36Michal Rakoczy
Midfielder85'
Bench ▼
99 Tomasz Loska Goalkeeper
5 Kryspin Szczesniak Defender
16
Pawel Olkowski Defender
20
Josema Defender
21
Mathias Dahl Sauer Midfielder
28 Bastien Donio Midfielder
77 Borislav Rupanov Attacker
Events
2ND-HALF
90+6'
Pawel Bochniewicz
Header / 1st Goal
Arkadiusz Reca → Patryk Kun
9th Substitution
85'
Artur Jedrzejczyk → Damian Szymanski
5th Substitution
85'
Ermal Krasniqi → Mileta Rajović
6th Substitution
85'
85'
Kamil Lukoszek → Erik Janza
7th Substitution
85'
Michal Rakoczy → Lukas Sadilek
8th Substitution
Rafal Augustyniak
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
82'
Kacper Urbanski
Penalty awarded
80'
Mileta Rajović
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
79'
75'
Roberto Massimo → Maksym Khlan
4th Substitution
70'
Maksym Khlan
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Kacper Urbanski → Wojciech Urbanski
3rd Substitution
67'
Damian Szymanski
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
67'
63'
Jaroslaw Kubicki → Lukas Ambros
2nd Substitution
Wojciech Urbanski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
61'
46'
Yvan Ikia Dimi → Sondre Liseth
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Patrik Hellebrand
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
30'
Lukas Sadilek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Pawel Wszolek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Legia Warszawa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.
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