Leganés vs Racing Santander Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Butarque Sun, 10 May - 2:15 PM
La Liga 2
Leganés LEG
1 Winner 2
Racing Santander RAC
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:15 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Luis Asué - 90+9'
Goal
|
Goal
Asier Villalibre - 88' (P)
Maguette Gueye - 26'

CONTEXT

Leganés hosted Racing Santander in a La Liga 2 encounter that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors. Racing Santander struck first, leading 0-1 at halftime despite Leganés controlling 59% possession without scoring. The home side pushed in the second half but could only net a late consolation, as Racing Santander doubled their advantage earlier. Deemed the stronger team beforehand, Racing Santander triumphed with 41% possession, showcasing superior efficiency. The outcome displayed minimal structural deviation of 3.9%, fully aligning with market expectations. Efficiency shifts remained in line throughout, with no red cards or significant adjustments distorting play. Leganés' dominance in ball control failed to translate into chances, underscoring Racing Santander's clinical edge in a tactical battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal structural deviation of 3.9% favoring Racing Santander.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome was fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events significantly impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Huerta de Aza

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

?. Carreño Cabrera

1st Assistant

Spain

J. García Urbaneja

2nd Assistant

Spain

P. Gòdia Solé

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.96
Yellow cards / match 4.85
Red cards / match 0.28
Penalties / match 0.34
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
VS
Racing Santander J. López Menéndez
J. López Menéndez
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
FC Andorra Rank: 65 L
Las Palmas Rank: 69 L
Albacete Rank: 66 W
Almería Rank: 71 L
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: 59 W
Ceuta Rank: 60 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 W
Almería Rank: 71 W
FC Andorra Rank: 67 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 63 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leganés
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Racing Santander
96.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Leganés
-0.03%
Draw
+1.81%
Racing Santander
-1.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.06
71.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leganés
Racing Santander
Power Score
58.06
71.57
League Position
16
1
Global Rank
391
173

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Racing Santander — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leganés Racing Santander

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Racing Santander

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Racing Santander
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.85
34.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.02
20.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leganés -1.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Racing Santander +1.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Racing Santander
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Racing Santander
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leganés Racing Santander
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leganés Racing Santander
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Racing Santander
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Leganés
vs
Racing Santander
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Leganés Racing Santander
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Leganés 0.22
Racing Santander 0.68
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Leganés Racing Santander
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Leganés 0.11
Racing Santander 0.02
Leganés
Racing Santander
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAC had peak pressure around 28'.
  • LEG started the game with stronger pressure.
LEG Pressure RAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAC reached the top pressure at 28' (71.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leganés LEG Home
8 matches
Racing Santander RAC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
2
Goals
10
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
10
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
G. Aguilar López
Substitution
Spain
6 G. Aguilar López
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
N. García García
Spain
17 N. García García
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
A. Diawara
Substitution
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
S. Cisse
Substitution
Guinea
8 S. Cisse
J. Díaz Espósito
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
D. Rodríguez Vázquez
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Rodríguez Vázquez
D. García Campos
Substitution
Spain
19 D. García Campos
Pitch
Lars Eriksson
Sweden
13 Lars Eriksson
J. Salinas Viadero
32 J. Salinas Viadero
P. Ramón Parra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Ramón Parra
J. Hernando Riol
Spain
4 J. Hernando Riol
A. Mantilla Pérez
Spain
2 A. Mantilla Pérez
G. Puerta Molano
Substitution
Colombia
19 G. Puerta Molano
M. Gueye
Senegal
14 M. Gueye
I. Vicente Elorduy
Spain
10 I. Vicente Elorduy
P. Canales Urtasun
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Canales Urtasun
A. Martín García
Substitution
Spain
11 A. Martín García
G. Guliashvili
Substitution
Georgia
7 G. Guliashvili

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Capacity :
12454
Attendance :
9689
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Álvaro Yeray Carreño Cabrera
Marta Huerta de Aza
José Unai García Urbaneja
Pol Gòdia Solé

Statistics

Possession
LEG
57%
RAC
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
46 Dangerous attacks 19
59 Possession 41
5 Corners 3
22 Free kicks 18
6 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

27 Throwins 19
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
0 Assists 1
13 Dribble Attempts 12
10 Goal Kicks 11
3 Successful Dribbles 5
70 Ball Safe 58
8 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

88 Attacks 72
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

61 Long Passes 51
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 22
28 Successful Long Passes 11
389 Passes 282
3 Key Passes 8
310 Successful Passes 196
80 Successful Passes Percentage 70

Defensive

5 Interceptions 10
13 Tackles 17
3 Saves 3
46 Duels Won 56

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 4
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
19 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
6
Lalo Aguilar
Lalo Aguilar Defender
4
Rubén Pulido
Rubén Pulido
Defender79'
17
Naim García
Naim García Defender
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé Midfielder
12
Luis Asué
Luis Asué
Attacker79'
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao
Midfielder55'
9
Dani Rodríguez
Dani Rodríguez Attacker
20
Óscar Plano
Óscar Plano
Attacker70'
19
Diego García
Diego García Attacker
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán
Attacker70'
Referee : Marta Huerta de Aza

Starting XI ▼

13
Simon Eriksson
Simon Eriksson Goalkeeper
2
Álvaro Mantilla
Álvaro Mantilla Defender
4
Manu Hernando
Manu Hernando Defender
21
Pablo Ramón
Pablo Ramón Defender
5
Javi Castro
Javi Castro
Defender90+1'
32
Jorge Salinas
Jorge Salinas Defender
10
Iñigo Vicente
Iñigo Vicente Midfielder
11
Andrés Martín
Andrés Martín Midfielder
15
Marco Sangalli
Marco Sangalli
Attacker67'
14
Maguette Gueye
Maguette Gueye Midfielder
18
Peio Canales
Peio Canales Midfielder
17
Jaime Mata
Jaime Mata
Attacker90+2'
19
Gustavo Puerta
Gustavo Puerta Midfielder
23
Damián Rodríguez
Damián Rodríguez
Midfielder90+1'
7
Giorgi Guliashvili
Giorgi Guliashvili Attacker
12
Asier Villalibre
Asier Villalibre
Attacker67'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Luis Asué
Header / 2nd Goal
90+9'
Event
Álex Millán
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Jaime Mata → Peio Canales
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Damián Rodríguez → Gustavo Puerta
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Javi Castro → Pablo Ramón
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Asier Villalibre
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
87'
Event
Asier Villalibre
Penalty awarded
Event
Luis Asué → Seydouba Cissé
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Rubén Pulido → Lalo Aguilar
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Seydouba Cissé
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Óscar Plano → Dani Rodríguez
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Álex Millán → Diego García
4th Substitution
70'
67'
Event
Marco Sangalli → Andrés Martín
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Asier Villalibre → Giorgi Guliashvili
3rd Substitution
Event
Juan Soriano
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
55'
Event
Carlos Guirao → Amadou Diawara
1st Substitution
55'
52'
Event
Iñigo Vicente
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Duk
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
36'
Event
Gustavo Puerta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
26'
Event
Maguette Gueye
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Amadou Diawara
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
20'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Jaime Mata is on, and Peio Canales is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Miguel Nlavo Asue takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Jaime Mata is on, and Peio Canales is off.
90
Update Update
D. Daniel Jose Rodriguez Vazquez comes on for Gustavo Puerta.
90
Attempt Attempt
A right-footed shot from Marvel is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Luis Miguel Nlavo Asue takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Alejandro Millan Iranzo.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Asier Villalibre scores, making it 0-2.
88
Attempt Attempt
Asier Villalibre scores with a left-footed shot.
87
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Asier Villalibre.
79
Update Update
Luis Miguel Nlavo Asue is on, and Seydouba Cisse is off.
79
Update Update
Ruben Pulido is on, and Lalo Aguilar is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Hernando Riol takes a shot, but it's saved.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Seydouba Cisse receives a yellow card.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Salinas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Naim Garcia takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Alejandro Millan Iranzo is on, and Diego Garcia Campos is off.
70
Update Update
Oscar Plano Pedreno comes on for Daniel Jose Rodriguez Vazquez.
68
Attempt Attempt
Diego Garcia Campos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Attempt Attempt
Diego Garcia Campos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Asier Villalibre comes on for Giorgi Guliashvili.
67
Substitution Substitution
Marco Sangalli Fuentes is substituted for Andres Martin Garcia.
64
Attempt Attempt
Luis Henrique Barros Lopes takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
60
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Guirao takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Update Update
Carlos Guirao is on, and Amadou Diawara is off.
54
Attempt Attempt
Alvaro Mantilla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Peio Canales takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Andres Martin Garcia takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Inigo Vicente receives a yellow card.
50
Attempt Attempt
Peio Canales takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Luis Henrique Barros Lopes of Duk.
33
Attempt Attempt
Peio Canales takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Andres Martin Garcia takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
26
Attempt Attempt
Maguette Gueye scores with a left-footed shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
Andres Martin Garcia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Hernando Riol takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
14
Attempt Attempt
Inigo Vicente takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Juan Cruz Diaz Esposito takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Diego Garcia Campos takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Racing Santander's 2-1 win at Leganés highlighted their pre-identified strength, overcoming 41% possession through precise finishing. Leganés' 59% ball share yielded just one goal, exposing conversion issues after a goalless first half. Minimal 3.9% deviation and market alignment affirm the result's predictability, with efficiencies holding steady. Absence of reds ensured a fair contest, where Racing's quality decided a low-event affair. This victory bolsters Racing Santander's campaign, while Leganés must refine chance creation to match possession advantages.

Leganés vs Racing Santander preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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