Lechia Gdańsk vs Raków Częstochowa Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadion Energa Gdańsk Sat, 25 Apr - 3:30 PM

Ekstraklasa

Lechia Gdańsk LGD

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 3:30 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Tomas Bobcek - 10' (P)

Jonatan Braut Brunes - 90+3'

Oskar Repka - 20'

CONTEXT

Lechia Gdańsk, considered the stronger team, hosted Raków Częstochowa in a tightly contested match that ended 1-2 in favor of the visitors. The first half concluded level at 1-1, with both sides sharing possession almost evenly—Lechia at 49% and Raków at 51%. Despite Lechia's pre-match favoritism, Raków capitalized on second-half opportunities to secure the win. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing the game to unfold naturally without disciplinary distortions. The result exhibited minimal structural deviation of just 4.8%, aligning closely with pre-match market expectations where the outcome proved consistent. Efficiency for both teams stayed in line with anticipated levels, reflecting a balanced performance devoid of major surprises. This upset highlights Raków's resilience on the road against a favored host.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Raków Częstochowa's 1-2 win featured minimal structural deviation of 4.8%.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: Unable to evaluate xG expectations due to missing data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's trajectory.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

K. Nagamine

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hasegawa

1st Assistant

K. Ando

2nd Assistant

F. Kaliszewski

4th Official

J. Carver

?. Tomczyk

1.65

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.61

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 0 - 9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lechia Gdańsk

0.19%

Draw

4.58%

Raków Częstochowa

95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening

Lechia Gdańsk

-0.13%

Draw

-4.11%

Raków Częstochowa

+4.23%

Team Power Ranking

28.29

24.21

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lechia Gdańsk

Raków Częstochowa

Power Score

28.29

24.21

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score

Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

26.84

34.41

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

34.41

26.84

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Lechia Gdańsk -0.70 Efficiency Index

Raków Częstochowa +0.70 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Lechia Gdańsk

Raków Częstochowa

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Raków Częstochowa

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lechia Gdańsk

Raków Częstochowa

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lechia Gdańsk

Raków Częstochowa

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lechia Gdańsk Raków Częstochowa

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lechia Gdańsk

Raków Częstochowa

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

LGD had peak pressure around 87'.
Raków Częstochowa started the game with stronger pressure.

LGD Pressure Raków Częstochowa Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 87' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home

11 matches

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-17

Goal Difference

+17

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 3-4-3

18 A. Paulsen

33 T. Wójtowicz

15 M. Dyachuk

80 M. Rodin

27 M. Vojtko

11 C. Mena Márquez

10 R. Kapič

5 I. Zhelizko

8 A. Ćirković

89 T. Bobček

79 K. Sezonienko

48 O. Zych

4 E. Svarnas

25 B. Racovitan

27 P. Dawidowicz

20 J. Silva Rocha

5 M. Bulat

6 O. Repka

7 F. Tudor

39 I. Brusberg

18 J. Brunes

9 P. Makuch

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 03:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Energa Gdańsk

Capacity :

41984

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Koki Nagamine

Masaru Hasegawa

Kohei Ando

Filip Kaliszewski

Statistics

Possession

LGD

48%

Raków Częstochowa

52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

2 Big Chances Created 1

0 Shots 8

43 Dangerous attacks 31

49 Possession 51

3 Corners 3

12 Free kicks 13

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Substitutions 5

10 Goal Attempts 9

4 Injuries 1

63 Ball Safe 79

0 Assists 1

2 Successful Dribbles 5

11 Goal Kicks 6

11 Throwins 13

40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 31

5 Dribble Attempts 16

1 Penalties 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 61

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 81

276 Successful Passes 317

360 Passes 393

31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

16 Successful Long Passes 24

51 Long Passes 57

Defensive

6 Interceptions 4

40 Duels Won 40

2 Saves 5

14 Tackles 9

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 15

7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 13

3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Koki Nagamine

Manager ▼

J. Carver Coach

Starting XI ▼

Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper

6.74

Maksym Dyachuk Defender

6.74

Matus Vojtko Defender

6.7

Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender

6.69

Bartlomiej Kludka

Defender86'

6.65

Matej Rodin Defender

6.94

Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder

7.27

Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder

7.02

Rifet Kapic Midfielder

7.05

Camilo Mena Midfielder

7.06

Kacper Sezonienko Attacker

6.85

Tomas Bobcek Attacker

7.29

Substitutes ▼

Bartlomiej Kludka

Defender86'

6.65

Bench ▼

Szymon Weirauch Goalkeeper

6.59

Bogdan Sarnavskyi Goalkeeper

6.99

Bujar Pllana Defender

6.77

Milosz Kalahur Defender

6.28

Indrit Mavraj Defender

Anton Tsarenko Midfielder

6.44

Tomasz Neugebauer Midfielder

6.72

Bogdan Viunnyk Attacker

6.7

Igor Bambecki Attacker

Referee : Koki Nagamine