Lechia Gdańsk vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Sun, 17 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
1 Winner 2
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
Full Time Sun, 17 May 3:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Tomas Bobcek - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Antonio Colak - 90+3'
Jean-Pierre Nsame - 11'
Ivan Zhelizko 87' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Lechia Gdańsk hosted Legia Warszawa in a match that concluded with a 1-2 final score after trailing 0-1 at halftime. The home side controlled 62 percent of possession yet conceded the victory to the visitors who entered as the stronger team. A red card issued to Lechia in the second half further altered the flow and contributed to the outcome. Legia maintained their lead despite lower possession and secured the win on the road. The result reflected a significant deviation from pre-match expectations with the away side benefiting from the shift. No expected goals figures were recorded leaving performance analysis reliant on possession and event data. The match highlighted how key incidents shaped the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Lechia Gdańsk 1-2 Legia Warszawa. Legia Warszawa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the final match outcome.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable for performance assessment.
  • Market alignment: The result was not aligned with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were provided in the match data.
  • Event impact: The away victory by Legia Warszawa confirmed their stronger team status.
  • Red card distortion: A red card to the home team altered second half dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Sylwestrzak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Arys

1st Assistant

Poland

S. Mucha

2nd Assistant

Poland

P. Pazdecki

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.82
Yellow cards / match 3.48
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.19
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 55 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 7 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lechia Gdańsk
43.21%
Draw
26.23%
Away Legia Warszawa
30.56%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lechia Gdańsk
+43.02%
Draw
+22.5%
Legia Warszawa
-65.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.1
65.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
58.1
65.75
League Position
16
7
Global Rank
543
305

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.40
28.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.16
30.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk +0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa -0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lechia Gdańsk
vs
Legia Warszawa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lechia Gdańsk Legia Warszawa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lechia Gdańsk 0.28
Legia Warszawa 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Legia Warszawa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lechia Gdańsk 0.06
Legia Warszawa 0.02
Lechia Gdańsk
Legia Warszawa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 72'.
  • LGD started the game with stronger pressure.
LGD Pressure Legia Warszawa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 72' (92.02).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
39 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
10
Wins
22
7
Draws
7
22
Losses
10
Goals
33
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
33
-20
Goal Difference
+20

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
T. Wójtowicz
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
B. Pllana
Kosovo
4 B. Pllana
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Vojtko
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 (C) R. Kapič
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
T. Neugebauer
Substitution
Poland
99 T. Neugebauer
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
J. Leszczyński
Poland
56 J. Leszczyński
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
R. Nascimento Vinagre
Substitution
Portugal
19 R. Nascimento Vinagre
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
B. Kapustka
Substitution
Poland
67 (C) B. Kapustka
K. Chodyna
Poland
11 K. Chodyna
J. Żewłakow
Substitution
Poland
20 J. Żewłakow
J. Nsamé
Substitution
Cameroon
18 J. Nsamé
E. Krasniqi
Substitution
Kosovo
77 E. Krasniqi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
Capacity :
41984
Attendance :
35000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Damian Sylwestrzak
Marek Arys
Sebastian Mucha
Piotr Pazdecki

Statistics

Possession
LGD
60%
Legia Warszawa
40%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 9
57 Dangerous attacks 34
62 Possession 38
4 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 21
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
9 Successful Dribbles 9
27 Throwins 21
1 Goal Kicks 13
1 Assists 1
59 Ball Safe 55
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Substitutions 5
14 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

76 Attacks 57

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 13
79 Successful Passes Percentage 68
59 Long Passes 50
470 Passes 275
373 Successful Passes 186
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
10 Key Passes 6

Defensive

2 Saves 5
22 Tackles 15
8 Interceptions 15
66 Duels Won 62

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 6
18 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

17 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
7.06
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana Defender
6.79
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
7.27
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
6.73
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
6.67
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
6.83
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic (C) Midfielder
6.93
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
7.61
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
7.06
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk
Defender88'
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
7.82
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer Attacker
6.09
17
Anton Tsarenko
Anton Tsarenko
Midfielder61'
6.83
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
7.04
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
6.47
56
Jan Leszczyński
Jan Leszczyński Defender
7.75
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
6.56
11
Kacper Chodyna
Kacper Chodyna Midfielder
6.89
19
Rúben Vinagre
Rúben Vinagre Midfielder
6.52
53
Wojciech Urbanski
Wojciech Urbanski
Midfielder61'
6.2
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
7.05
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka (C) Midfielder
7.11
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski
Midfielder81'
6.48
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
7.05
14
Antonio Colak
Antonio Colak
Attacker72'
7.16
20
Jakub Zewlakow
Jakub Zewlakow Attacker
6.49
99
Samuel Kovacik
Samuel Kovacik
Attacker61'
6.44
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi Attacker
6.87
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski
Attacker61'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Antonio Colak
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Matej Rodin
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90'
90'
Event
Jan Leszczyński
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Rafal Augustyniak
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Maksym Dyachuk → Kacper Sezonienko
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Ivan Zhelizko
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
87'
81'
Event
Damian Szymanski → Bartosz Kapustka
6th Substitution
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
72'
Event
Antonio Colak → Jean-Pierre Nsame
5th Substitution
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Header / 2nd Goal
63'
Event
Anton Tsarenko → Tomasz Neugebauer
3rd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Samuel Kovacik → Jakub Zewlakow
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Rafal Adamski → Ermal Krasniqi
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Wojciech Urbanski → Rúben Vinagre
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ivan Zhelizko
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
32'
Event
Kacper Chodyna
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Antonio-Mirko Colak takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matej Rodin receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Chodyna takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Rafal Adamski's header is blocked.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Antonio-Mirko Colak scores, making it 1-2.
89
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Augustyniak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Update Update
Maksym Dyachuk comes on for Kacper Sezonienko.
88
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Augustyniak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Ivan Zhelizko.
81
Update Update
Damian Szymanski comes on for Bartosz Kapustka.
78
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomas Bobcek receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Antonio-Mirko Colak comes on for Jean Pierre Nsame.
69
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Sezonienko takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Anton Tsarenko takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Tomas Bobcek scores with a header.
61
Update Update
Wojcieh Urbanski replaces Ruben Vinagre.
61
Update Update
Rafal Adamski replaces Ermal Krasniqi.
61
Update Update
Anton Tsarenko is on, and Tomasz Neugebauer is off.
61
Update Update
Samuel Kovacik comes on for Jakub Zewlakow.
60
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Mena takes a right-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Bujar Pllana takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempted a header but missed the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bujar Pllana takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jan Leszczynski takes a shot, but it hits the post.
29
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Mena takes a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempts a header but misses the shot.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Chodyna takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jean Pierre Nsame scores, making it 0-1.
11
Update Update
Jean Pierre Nsame scores with a header.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bujar Pllana attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Legia Warszawa claimed a 1-2 away victory over Lechia Gdańsk after leading 0-1 at the interval. The visitors absorbed pressure from the home side that held the majority of possession and converted their opportunities efficiently. A red card to Lechia in the second half limited their ability to mount a sustained comeback. Legia stayed organized and protected their advantage until the final whistle. The outcome underscored the impact of key events on the result despite the possession imbalance. Both teams showed moments of quality but Legia executed the decisive moments more effectively. This win strengthens their position while Lechia must address defensive vulnerabilities exposed during the contest.

Lechia Gdańsk vs Legia Warszawa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.