Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Energa Gdańsk Mon, 6 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa Lechia Gdańsk LGD 
4 
2
2
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 27 · Regular Season
Dawid Kurminowski - 90+3'
Rifet Kapic - 59'
Tomas Bobcek - 29' (P)
Aleksandar Cirkovic - 19'
|
Pau Resta - 82'
Dawid Blanik - 78' (P)
|
Konstantinos Sotiriou 27' STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match has concluded with Lechia Gdańsk securing a high-scoring 4-2 victory over Korona Kielce. Pre-match market expectations favored the home side with a 47.7% chance of winning, compared to Korona Kielce's 27% and a 25.3% probability of a draw. The final outcome aligned with the market, though Lechia Gdańsk produced a significant deviation in their favor after establishing an early 2-0 lead by halftime. Possession was tightly contested throughout the fixture, with Lechia Gdańsk holding a slight edge at 51% to the visitors' 49%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this clash, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. A crucial factor in the match was Korona Kielce being reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This disciplinary event caused a noticeable second-half distortion. Playing against a disadvantaged opponent allowed the inherently stronger Lechia Gdańsk squad to comfortably maintain their advantage and safely close out the game.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Lechia Gdańsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
- Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
T. Kwiatkowski
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
M. Lisowski
1st Assistant
P. Baranowska
2nd Assistant
J. Carver
VS
J. Zielinski
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Katowice Rank: 63 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 7 - 13
13
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Lechia Gdańsk47.73%
Draw
25.3%
Korona Kielce26.96%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.9 60.36 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lechia Gdańsk Korona KielcePower Score
61.9
60.36
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
406
461
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
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Lechia Gdańsk
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Korona Kielce
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.61
43.88
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.88
39.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lechia Gdańsk -0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Korona Kielce +0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Lechia Gdańsk ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Lechia Gdańskvs
Korona Kielce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lechia Gdańsk 0.27
Korona Kielce 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lechia Gdańsk 0.03
Korona Kielce 0.06
Lechia Gdańsk
Korona Kielce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Lechia Gdańsk LGD Home
28 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Away
Match Record 8
Wins
13
7
Draws
7
13
Losses
8
Goals 27
Goals Scored
38
38
Goals Conceded
27
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:29+00:00
STARTING XI
Lechia Gdańsk Korona Kielce Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
18 A. Paulsen
B. Kłudka
#246'
33 T. Wójtowicz
15 M. Dyachuk
80 M. Rodin
27 M. Vojtko
B. Pllana
#490+4'
10 R. Kapič
5 I. Zhelizko
T. Neugebauer
#9946'
11 C. Mena Márquez
B. V'Yunnik
#775'
79 K. Sezonienko
8 A. Ćirković
D. Kurminowski
#9062'
89 T. Bobček
1 X. Dziekonski
5 P. Resta Tell
44 C. Soteriou
23 S. Rubežić
6 M. Pieczek
88 T. Svetlin
S. Gustafson
#8667'
8 M. Remacle
H. Zwoźny
#3767'
71 W. Długosz
7 D. Błanik
M. Cebula
#7767'
14 M. Stępiński
K. Matuszewski
#333'
9 S. Davidović
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 06:15 PM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Stadion Energa Gdańsk
👥 Capacity :
41984
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Marcin Lisowski
Paulina Baranowska
Next Match
Lechia Gdańsk
vs
Wisła Płock
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Fri, 10 Apr - 4:00 PM
Venue: Away
Korona Kielce
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok
League: Ekstraklasa
Kickoff: Fri, 10 Apr - 6:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Possession
LGD
52%
Korona Kielce
48%
Top Statistics
4 Goals 2
6 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 4
64 Dangerous attacks 70
51 Possession 49
6 Corners 5
5 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1
Match Overview
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 1
81 Ball Safe 95
6 Goal Kicks 6
20 Throwins 25
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
9 Successful Dribbles 6
17 Goal Attempts 10
9 Dribble Attempts 6
3 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
Attacking
107 Attacks 103
Possession
80 Successful Passes Percentage 78
368 Passes 343
294 Successful Passes 266
19 Long Passes 14
Defensive
42 Duels Won 44
4 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 11
21 Tackles 8
Discipline
14 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 0
Lineup
Lechia Gdańsk Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Manager ▼
J. Carver Coach
Starting XI ▼
18 Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
15 Maksym Dyachuk Defender
27 Matus Vojtko Defender
33 Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
2Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender46'
80 Matej Rodin Defender
5 Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
8 Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
10 Rifet Kapic Midfielder
4Bujar Pllana
Defender90+4'
11 Camilo Mena Midfielder
99Tomasz Neugebauer
Midfielder46'
79 Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
7Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker75'
89 Tomas Bobcek Attacker
90Dawid Kurminowski
Attacker62'
Substitutes ▼
2Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender46'
99Tomasz Neugebauer
Midfielder46'
90Dawid Kurminowski
Attacker62'
7Bogdan Viunnyk
Attacker75'
4Bujar Pllana
Defender90+4'
Bench ▼
1 Szymon Weirauch Goalkeeper
29
Bogdan Sarnavskyi Goalkeeper
23 Milosz Kalahur Defender
76 Indrit Mavraj Defender
17
Anton Tsarenko Midfielder
21 Michal Glogowski Attacker
49 Igor Bambecki Attacker
Korona Kielce Referee : Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Manager ▼
J. Zielinski Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
5 Pau Resta Defender
23 Slobodan Rubezic Defender
44 Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender
6 Marcel Pieczek Midfielder
8 Martin Remacle Midfielder
86Simon Gustafson
Midfielder67'
71 Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
37Hubert Zwozny
Defender67'
88 Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
7 Dawid Blanik Attacker
9 Stjepan Davidovic Attacker
3Konrad Matuszewski
Defender33'
14 Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
77Marcin Cebula
Midfielder67'
Substitutes ▼
3Konrad Matuszewski
Defender33'
86Simon Gustafson
Midfielder67'
37Hubert Zwozny
Defender67'
77Marcin Cebula
Midfielder67'
Bench ▼
87
Rafal Mamla Goalkeeper
21 Konrad Ciszek Defender
24
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender
26
Viktor Popov Defender
10
Nono Midfielder
19 Adam Hańćko Midfielder
20 Kacper Minuczyc Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
Bujar Pllana
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Bujar Pllana → Rifet Kapic
9th Substitution
90+4'
Dawid Kurminowski
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
85'
Pau Resta
Goal awarded
82'
Pau Resta
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
78'
Dawid Blanik
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
Dawid Kurminowski
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
76'
Pau Resta
Penalty awarded
Bogdan Viunnyk → Kacper Sezonienko
8th Substitution
75'
67'
Simon Gustafson → Martin Remacle
6th Substitution
67'
Hubert Zwozny → Wiktor Dlugosz
7th Substitution
67'
Marcin Cebula → Mariusz Stepinski
5th Substitution
Dawid Kurminowski → Tomas Bobcek
4th Substitution
62'
Rifet Kapic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
2nd Substitution
46'
Tomasz Neugebauer → Camilo Mena
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Camilo Mena
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
33'
Konrad Matuszewski → Stjepan Davidovic
1st Substitution
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
29'
27'
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Tomas Bobcek
Penalty awarded
26'
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Goal disallowed
9'
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Lechia Gdańsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
Lechia Gdańsk vs Korona Kielce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
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