Lech Poznań vs Wisła Płock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Sat, 23 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
2 – 2
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Patrik Wålemark - 59'
Luis Palma - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Marcin Kaminski - 90+5'
Zan Rogelj - 48'

CONTEXT

Lech Poznań hosted Wisła Płock in a match that concluded 2-2. The home side led 1-0 at halftime after establishing control through higher possession at 68 percent compared to the visitors 32 percent. Despite being designated the stronger team Lech Poznań could not maintain the advantage in the second half as Wisła Płock equalized to force a draw. No red cards were issued to either side and expected goals data remained unavailable throughout the contest. Pre-match indicators pointed to a moderate deviation level of 9.4 percent associated with Lech Poznań yet the outcome proved consistent with available alignment metrics. The result reflected balanced second half adjustments without knockout implications.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The contest featured a moderate deviation of 9.4 percent linked to Lech Poznań.
  • Efficiency shift: Performance efficiency stayed in line with established patterns.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable for alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: The draw outcome aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were supplied to compare against the 2-2 score.
  • Event impact: The draw took place after a 1-0 halftime lead by the stronger side.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so disciplinary events created no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Szczerbowicz

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Kowalewski

1st Assistant

Poland

J. Bukarowicz

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Kuropatwa

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.3
Yellow cards / match 3.82
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.23
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: 62 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 67 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Katowice Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 L
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 58 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
6.22%
Draw
90.56%
Away Wisła Płock
3.22%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lech Poznań
-5.47%
Draw
+6.31%
Wisła Płock
-0.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.56
49.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Wisła Płock
Power Score
71.56
49.93
League Position
1
8
Global Rank
172
617

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Wisła Płock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.10
48.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
48.44
21.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań -2.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Wisła Płock +2.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Wisła Płock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań Wisła Płock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Wisła Płock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Wisła Płock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lech Poznań
vs
Wisła Płock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lech Poznań Wisła Płock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lech Poznań 0.26
Wisła Płock 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Wisła Płock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lech Poznań 0.07
Wisła Płock 0.04
Lech Poznań
Wisła Płock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Wisła Płock had peak pressure around 54'.
  • Wisła Płock started the game with stronger pressure.
Lech Poznań Pressure Wisła Płock Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Wisła Płock reached the top pressure at 54' (89.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
20 matches
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Away
Match Record
12
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
12
Goals
34
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
34
+13
Goal Difference
-13

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:02:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
M. Skrzypczak
Substitution
Poland
72 M. Skrzypczak
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
A. Kozubal
Substitution
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
P. Wålemark
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
L. Palma Oseguera
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
Pitch
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
Q. Lecoeuche
Substitution
France
13 Q. Lecoeuche
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 M. Kamiński
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
D. Gallapeni
Substitution
Kosovo
19 D. Gallapeni
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
N. Mijušković
Montenegro
25 N. Mijušković
D. Kun
Substitution
Poland
14 D. Kun
Ž. Rogelj
Slovenia
21 Ž. Rogelj
M. Djaló
Substitution
Portugal
17 M. Djaló
S. Hamulic
Substitution
Netherlands
77 S. Hamulic

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Enea stadion
Capacity :
42837
Attendance :
41529
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marcin Szczerbowicz
S. Kowalewski
Julia Bukarowicz
Maciej Kuropatwa

Statistics

Possession
Lech Poznań
61%
Wisła Płock
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 6
7 Shots 6
47 Dangerous attacks 30
68 Possession 32
5 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 11
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
11 Throwins 7
5 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Goal Attempts 10
51 Ball Safe 49
5 Substitutions 5
13 Goal Kicks 15
0 Penalties 1
1 Assists 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 4
68 Attacks 47

Possession

27 Successful Long Passes 24
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
41 Long Passes 46
489 Successful Passes 209
545 Passes 256
90 Successful Passes Percentage 82
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

10 Tackles 16
35 Duels Won 44
6 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 1

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 7
21 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
27
Wojciech Mońka
Wojciech Mońka Defender
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Mateusz Skrzypczak Defender
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny
Defender66'
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder57'
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
22
Radoslaw Murawski
Radoslaw Murawski
Midfielder57'
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder57'
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker83'
Referee : Marcin Szczerbowicz

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche Defender
66
Iban Salvador
Iban Salvador
Midfielder86'
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski Defender
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun Midfielder
18
Dominik Sarapata
Dominik Sarapata
Midfielder46'
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni Midfielder
24
Nikodem Rogowski
Nikodem Rogowski
Defender78'
21
Zan Rogelj
Zan Rogelj Midfielder
25
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Nemanja Mijuskovic Midfielder
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Midfielder
17
Matchoi Djaló
Matchoi Djaló Attacker
20
Lukasz Sekulski
Lukasz Sekulski
Attacker78'
77
Said Hamulic
Said Hamulic Attacker
9
Giannis Niarchos
Giannis Niarchos
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Iban Salvador
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Marcin Kaminski
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Yannick Agnero
Goal disallowed
89'
86'
Event
Iban Salvador → Quentin Lecoeuche
10th Substitution
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
9th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Dominik Sarapata
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Nikodem Rogowski → Dion Gallapeni
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Lukasz Sekulski → Matchoi Djaló
8th Substitution
Event
Robert Gumny → Mateusz Skrzypczak
6th Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Nemanja Mijuskovic
GoalkeeperSave
63'
Event
Yannick Agnero
Penalty awarded
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Header / 3rd Goal
59'
Event
Filip Jagiello → Pablo Rodríguez
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Radoslaw Murawski → Antoni Kozubal
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Leo Bengtsson
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
55'
48'
Event
Zan Rogelj
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Dominik Sarapata → Dominik Kun
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Giannis Niarchos → Said Hamulic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Luis Palma
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marco Kaminski scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Niarchos Ioannis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero takes a left-footed shot and scores.
83
Update Update
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero comes on for Mikael Ishak.
78
Update Update
Nikodem Rogowski comes on for Dion Gallapeni.
78
Update Update
Nikodem Rogowski comes on for Dion Gallapeni.
72
Attempt Attempt
Wiktor Nowak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Sarapata's right-footed shot is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Nemanja Mijuskovic with his right foot misses the target.
68
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Niarchos Ioannis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Robert Gumny comes on for Mateusz Skrzypczak.
65
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Nemanja Mijuskovic with his right foot is saved.
65
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Nemanja Mijuskovic's shot is stopped.
63
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a penalty awarded to Nemanja Mijuskovic.
61
Update Update
Nemanja Mijuskovic's header is blocked.
60
Update Update
Patrik Walemark scores with a header.
57
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Hakans is substituted for Leo Bengtsson.
57
Update Update
Radoslaw Murawski comes on for Antoni Kozubal.
57
Update Update
Filip Jagiello comes on for Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero.
56
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Haglind-Sangre takes a shot with his head, but it misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Matchoi Djalo's right-footed shot is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Zan Rogelj takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
46
Update Update
Dominik Sarapata replaces Dominik Kun.
46
Update Update
Niarchos Ioannis is on, and Said Hamulic is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Dominik Kun takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera scores to make it 1-0.
30
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
25
Attempt Attempt
Dion Gallapeni takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson's right-footed shot is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Lech Poznań and Wisła Płock highlighted how possession dominance at 68 percent for the home team failed to secure victory after the interval. With halftime standing at 1-0 the visitors mounted an effective response to level the score without the aid of disciplinary advantages. Limited metrics on expected goals restricted deeper performance comparisons yet the result stayed consistent with alignment observations. Moderate structural deviation did not alter the final equilibrium as efficiency patterns held steady. Both teams navigated the contest without red card interruptions allowing focus on tactical adjustments that produced the shared points. This outcome underscores the challenges of converting early leads into wins when opponents maintain composure in later stages.

Lech Poznań vs Wisła Płock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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