Lech Poznań vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Enea stadion Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
1 – 1
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Luis Palma - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Kike Hermoso - 52'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Lech Poznań 1–1 Arka Gdynia. The match ended in a draw. Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 81%–19%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań suffered a significant 82.1% structural deviation by drawing 1-1 despite dominance.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome misaligned with pre-match market favoritism toward Lech Poznań.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards influenced the 1-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Frankowski

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Winkler

1st Assistant

Poland

?. Ostrowski

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.78
Yellow cards / match 3.21
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.21
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 W
Katowice Rank: 66 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 D
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 D
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 9 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lech Poznań
70.8%
Draw
17.86%
Away Arka Gdynia
11.34%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lech Poznań
+62.25%
Draw
-71.74%
Arka Gdynia
+9.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.28
50.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
71.28
50.14
League Position
1
17
Global Rank
184
624

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.96
42.63
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
42.63
37.96
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lech Poznań -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lech Poznań ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lech Poznań
vs
Arka Gdynia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lech Poznań 0.27
Arka Gdynia 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lech Poznań Arka Gdynia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lech Poznań 0.05
Arka Gdynia 0.01
Lech Poznań
Arka Gdynia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 70'.
  • Lech Poznań started the game with stronger pressure.
Lech Poznań Pressure Arka Gdynia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 70' (97.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Home
19 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
9
Draws
9
4
Losses
6
Goals
22
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
22
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
A. Milić
Substitution
Croatia
16 A. Milić
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
T. Ouma
Substitution
Kenya
6 T. Ouma
A. Kozubal
Substitution
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Wålemark
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
L. Palma Oseguera
Substitution
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
M. Ishak
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
Pitch
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
E. Gómez Hermoso
Spain
23 E. Gómez Hermoso
D. Abramowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 D. Abramowicz
K. Jakubczyk
Poland
35 K. Jakubczyk
L. Perea Hernández
Substitution
Spain
6 L. Perea Hernández
D. Zator
Canada
4 D. Zator
S. Kerk
Substitution
Germany
37 S. Kerk
V. Gutkovskis
Substitution
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis
Oskar Kubiak
Substitution
7 Oskar Kubiak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Enea stadion
Capacity :
42837
Attendance :
41598
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jacub Winkler
Łukasz Ostrowski
Bartosz Frankowski

Statistics

Possession
Lech Poznań
73%
Arka Gdynia
27%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
26 Shots 7
95 Dangerous attacks 22
81 Possession 19
15 Corners 5
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 7
3 Goal Kicks 10
1 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Successful Dribbles 3
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
23 Throwins 7
18 Goal Attempts 4
62 Ball Safe 63
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

122 Attacks 53
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

661 Passes 159
30 Long Passes 57
16 Successful Long Passes 18
18 Key Passes 4
87 Successful Passes Percentage 57
574 Successful Passes 91
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

39 Duels Won 37
3 Interceptions 12
10 Tackles 16
1 Saves 6

Build-up

45 Total Crosses 11
10 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

7 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Defender
20
Robert Gumny
Robert Gumny
Defender46'
27
Wojciech Monka
Wojciech Monka Defender
6
Timothy Ouma
Timothy Ouma Midfielder
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder46'
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez
Attacker64'
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker82'
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Midfielder
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder82'
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
23
Kike Hermoso
Kike Hermoso Defender
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator Midfielder
6
Luis Perea
Luis Perea Midfielder
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski
Midfielder25'
33
Dawid Abramowicz
Dawid Abramowicz Midfielder
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla
Midfielder85'
35
Kamil Jakubczyk
Kamil Jakubczyk Midfielder
7
O. Kubiak
O. Kubiak Attacker
31
Nazariy Rusyn
Nazariy Rusyn
Attacker61'
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker61'
37
Sebastian Kerk
Sebastian Kerk Attacker
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz
Midfielder85'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Jedrzej Grobelny
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Robert Gumny
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
85'
Event
Patryk Szysz → Sebastian Kerk
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Dawid Kocyla → Dawid Abramowicz
9th Substitution
Event
Yannick Agnero → Antoni Kozubal
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Luis Palma
8th Substitution
82'
65'
Event
Dominick Zator
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Rodríguez → Leo Bengtsson
6th Substitution
64'
61'
Event
Edu Espiau → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Nazariy Rusyn → O. Kubiak
5th Substitution
Event
Luis Palma
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
52'
Event
Kike Hermoso
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Robert Gumny → Antonio Milic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Filip Jagiello → Timothy Ouma
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Michal Rzuchowski → Luis Perea
1st Substitution
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Penalty disallowed
22'
22'
Event
Dawid Gojny
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nazariy Rusyn's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nazariy Rusyn's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Update Update
Mikael Ishak's header attempt goes wide.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
90
Update Update
Mikael Ishak's header attempt misses the target.
86
Attempt Attempt
Kike Hermoso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Dawid Kocyla replaces Dawid Abramowicz.
85
Update Update
Patryk Szysz comes on for Sebastian Kerk.
82
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark's left-footed shot is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Michal Gurgul takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Update Update
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero is on, and Antoni Kozubal is off.
82
Update Update
Daniel Hakans is on, and Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera is off.
79
Attempt Attempt
Kike Hermoso attempts a header but misses the shot.
73
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a left-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero comes on for Leo Bengtsson.
63
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Update Update
Nazariy Rusyn comes on for Oskar Kubiak.
61
Update Update
Eduardo David Espiau Hernandez comes on for Vladislavs Gutkovskis.
60
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
55
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello's right-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kike Hermoso scores to make it 1-0.
52
Attempt Attempt
Kike Hermoso takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
52
Attempt Attempt
Filip Jagiello takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Filip Jagiello is on, and Timothy Ouma is off.
46
Update Update
Robert Gumny replaces Antonio Milic.
46
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark's left-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Wojciech Monka's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak's header is saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Update Update
Michal Rzuchowski comes on for Luis Amaranto Perea.
23
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
VAR decision results in the penalty being cancelled for Patrik Walemark.
19
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
17
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Kubiak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Mikael Ishak's right-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Antoni Kozubal takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Update Update
Mikael Ishak's header hits the post.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bartosz Frankowski.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Lech Poznań vs Arka Gdynia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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