Lecce vs Juventus Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare Sat, 9 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lecce LEC
0 Winner 1
Juventus JUV
Full Time Sat, 9 May 6:45 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
|
Goal
Dušan Vlahović - 1'

CONTEXT

Juventus secured a hard-fought 0-1 victory away at Lecce in Serie A action at Stadio Via del Mare. The only goal came in the first half, giving the visitors a 0-1 halftime lead that they defended stoutly. Juventus commanded 65% possession compared to Lecce's 35%, dictating the tempo and limiting the hosts' opportunities. Lecce pressed for an equalizer after the break but lacked clinical finishing against a resolute Juventus backline. No red cards disrupted play, allowing a full complement of players throughout. As the pre-designated stronger team, Juventus delivered a professional performance, converting their dominance into three points. Lecce's defensive organization kept the scoreline tight, but they couldn't breach the opposition. This result reinforces Juventus' consistency on the road while highlighting Lecce's struggles to convert home advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 32.4% favored Juventus.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match levels.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable with missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, preventing any distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Colombo

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Imperiale

1st Assistant

Italy

D. Cecconi

2nd Assistant

Italy

P. Tremolada

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.44
Yellow cards / match 3.28
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.17
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
VS
Juventus L. Spalletti
L. Spalletti
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 D
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Roma Rank: 85 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 D
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Atalanta Rank: 84 W
Genoa Rank: 75 W
Sassuolo Rank: 76 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lecce
11.06%
Draw
21.32%
Away Juventus
67.62%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lecce
+10.87%
Draw
+17.62%
Juventus
-28.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.68
85.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lecce
Juventus
Power Score
68.68
85.83
League Position
17
3
Global Rank
242
33

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Juventus — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lecce Juventus

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juventus

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lecce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juventus
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.00
28.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.38
26.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lecce -0.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Juventus +0.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lecce
Juventus
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lecce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juventus
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lecce Juventus
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lecce Juventus
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lecce
Juventus
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lecce
vs
Juventus
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lecce Juventus
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lecce 0.36
Juventus 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lecce Juventus
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lecce 0.01
Juventus 0.00
Lecce
Juventus
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JUV had peak pressure around 7'.
  • JUV started the game with stronger pressure.
LEC Pressure JUV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JUV reached the top pressure at 7' (72.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lecce LEC Home
19 matches
Juventus JUV Away
Match Record
1
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
1
Goals
14
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
14
-25
Goal Difference
+25

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:05:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 W. Falcone
D. Melo Veiga
Substitution
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
A. Gallo
Italy
25 A. Gallo
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
O. Ngom
Substitution
France
79 O. Ngom
S. Pierotti
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
L. Banda
Substitution
Zambia
19 L. Banda
W. Cheddira
Substitution
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira
Pitch
M. Di Gregorio
Italy
16 M. Di Gregorio
A. Cambiaso
Substitution
Italy
27 A. Cambiaso
L. Kelly
England
6 L. Kelly
G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
Brazil
3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
France
15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
T. Koopmeiners
Netherlands
8 T. Koopmeiners
M. Locatelli
Italy
5 M. Locatelli
K. Yildiz
Substitution
Germany
10 K. Yildiz
W. McKennie
Substitution
United States
22 W. McKennie
F. Conceição
Substitution
Portugal
7 F. Conceição
D. Vlahović
Substitution
Serbia
9 D. Vlahović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Capacity :
40800
Attendance :
27383
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrea Colombo
Davide Imperiale
Dario Cecconi
Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession
LEC
38%
JUV
62%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
22 Dangerous attacks 69
35 Possession 65
1 Corners 7
18 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Throwins 27
11 Successful Headers 17
0 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 19
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
0 Hit Woodwork 1
8 Goal Kicks 7
4 Successful Dribbles 8
4 Substitutions 5
88 Ball Safe 96
8 Goal Attempts 8
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

81 Attacks 96
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

26 Successful Long Passes 34
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
268 Passes 501
60 Long Passes 62
198 Successful Passes 431
74 Successful Passes Percentage 86
5 Key Passes 11

Defensive

5 Saves 3
11 Interceptions 2
18 Tackles 33
50 Duels Won 65

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 3
8 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

2 Offsides 6
7 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Colombo

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
14
Thórir Jóhann Helgason
Thórir Jóhann Helgason
Midfielder70'
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
11
Konan N’Dri
Konan N’Dri
Attacker76'
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
18
Gaby Jean
Gaby Jean
Defender62'
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
22
Francesco Camarda
Francesco Camarda
Attacker75'
Referee : Andrea Colombo

Starting XI ▼

16
Michele Di Gregorio
Michele Di Gregorio Goalkeeper
3
Bremer
Bremer Defender
6
Lloyd Kelly
Lloyd Kelly Defender
15
Pierre Kalulu
Pierre Kalulu Defender
27
Andrea Cambiaso
Andrea Cambiaso Defender
30
Jonathan David
Jonathan David
Attacker83'
5
Manuel Locatelli
Manuel Locatelli Midfielder
7
Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição Midfielder
11
Edon Zhegrova
Edon Zhegrova
Attacker83'
8
Teun Koopmeiners
Teun Koopmeiners Midfielder
10
Kenan Yıldız
Kenan Yıldız Midfielder
13
Jérémie Boga
Jérémie Boga
Attacker83'
22
Weston McKennie
Weston McKennie Midfielder
4
Federico Gatti
Federico Gatti
Defender86'
9
Dušan Vlahović
Dušan Vlahović Attacker
2
Emil Holm
Emil Holm
Defender77'

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Federico Gatti → Weston McKennie
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Jérémie Boga → Kenan Yıldız
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Jonathan David → Andrea Cambiaso
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Edon Zhegrova → Francisco Conceição
8th Substitution
Event
Gaby Jean
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
82'
80'
Event
Francisco Conceição
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
77'
Event
Emil Holm → Dušan Vlahović
5th Substitution
Event
Konan N’Dri → Lameck Banda
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Francesco Camarda  → Walid Cheddira
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Thórir Jóhann Helgason → Danilo Veiga
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Gaby Jean → Oumar Ngom
1st Substitution
62'
61'
Event
Pierre Kalulu
Goal disallowed
50'
Event
Dušan Vlahović
Goal disallowed
1ST-HALF
1'
Event
Dušan Vlahović
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jeremie Boga's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Edon Zhegrova takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lassana Coulibaly attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Federico Gatti replaces Weston McKennie.
83
Update Update
Jeremie Boga comes on for Kenan Yildiz.
83
Update Update
Jonathan Christian David is on, and Andrea Cambiaso is off.
83
Update Update
Edon Zhegrova comes on for Francisco Conceicao.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gaby Jean receives a yellow card.
81
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Pierotti's right-footed shot is saved.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francisco Conceicao receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Emil Holm attempts a header but misses the shot.
77
Update Update
Emil Holm comes on for Dusan Vlahovic.
77
Attempt Attempt
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Francesco Camarda comes on for Walid Cheddira.
76
Update Update
Konan Ignace Jocelyn N’dri is on, and Lameck Banda is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic's left-footed shot is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Thorir Helgason's left-footed shot is saved.
70
Update Update
Thorir Helgason comes on for Danilo Veiga.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Yildiz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Substitution Substitution
Gaby Jean is substituted for Oumar Ngom.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pierre Kalulu scores, making it 0-2.
59
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa.
48
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a left-footed shot and scores.
48
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Cambiaso takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Update Update
VAR review results in a disallowed goal for Dusan Vlahovic due to offside.
48
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dusan Vlahovic scores, making it 2-0.
39
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Gleison Bremer Silva Nascimento takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Ylber Ramadani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Conceicao takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
4
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Yildiz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
3
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira's left-footed shot is saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vlahovic takes a left-footed shot and scores.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dusan Vlahovic scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Andrea Cambiaso.

CONCLUSION

Juventus' 0-1 win at Lecce exemplifies their tactical discipline and possession mastery at 65%. Leading 0-1 at halftime, they repelled Lecce's second-half pressure without conceding. The lack of xG data obscures shot quality insights, yet the result matches Juventus' stronger team billing. No red cards ensured uninterrupted flow, with Juventus capitalizing on early superiority. Lecce's 35% possession reflected limited threat, underscoring their need for better conversion. This outcome strengthens Juventus' league standing, providing momentum, while Lecce faces scrutiny over home form. A clinical away performance defines the post-match narrative.

Lecce vs Juventus preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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