Lecce vs Genoa Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Serie A, Italy

Stadio Comunale Via del Mare Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM

Serie A

Lecce LEC

Genoa GEN

Full Time Sun, 24 May 6:45 PM

Round 38 Regular Season

Lameck Banda - 6'

CONTEXT

Lecce defeated Genoa by a 1-0 scoreline with the only goal arriving before halftime. The home side defended resolutely after taking the lead and limited clear opportunities despite trailing heavily in possession. Genoa held 68 percent of the ball yet created insufficient threat to equalize. Both teams finished with eleven players as no red cards were issued. The stronger-rated side on paper could not overcome the early deficit or break down the compact Lecce defense. The final whistle confirmed an away defeat for Genoa after a match defined by territorial dominance without reward. Lecce secured the points through organization and timely scoring.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lecce recorded a minimal 3.9 percent structural deviation as the winner.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
xG alignment: No xG values were available to evaluate outcome alignment.
Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with available market indicators.
xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable throughout the match.
Event impact: The first-half goal at 1-0 proved decisive for the final score.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics faced no distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Doveri

Italy 25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

Giuseppe Mucera

4th Official

Italy

G. Peretti

1st Assistant

Italy

V. Mastrodonato

2nd Assistant

Italy

E. Di Francesco

D. De Rossi

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.32

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 5 - 10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Lecce

96.11%

Draw

3.7%

Genoa

0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening

Lecce

+1.95%

Draw

-1.95%

Genoa

Team Power Ranking

69.65

74.59

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Lecce

Genoa

Power Score

69.65

74.59

League Position

Global Rank

220

124

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score

Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lecce Genoa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Genoa

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lecce ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Genoa

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Lecce Genoa

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Lecce Genoa

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Lecce

Genoa

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Lecce

Genoa

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Lecce Genoa

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Lecce Genoa

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Lecce

Genoa

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

GEN had peak pressure around 24'.
LEC started the game with stronger pressure.

LEC Pressure GEN Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: GEN reached the top pressure at 24' (76.11).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lecce LEC Home

17 matches

Genoa GEN Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-16

Goal Difference

+16

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T18:30:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

30 W. Falcone

17 D. Melo Veiga

5 J. Siebert

44 T. Coelho Oliveira

25 A. Gallo

20 Y. Ramadani

79 O. Ngom

50 S. Pierotti

29 L. Coulibaly

19 L. Banda

99 W. Cheddira

1 N. Leali

13 N. Zätterström

34 S. Otoa

27 A. Marcandalli

3 A. Martín Caricol

73 P. Masini

32 M. Frendrup

4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho

20 S. Sabelli

29 L. Colombo

77 M. Ellertsson

General Information

Date & Time :

May 24, 2026, 06:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Capacity :

40800

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Daniele Doveri

Giuseppe Mucera

Giorgio Peretti

Vito Mastrodonato

Statistics

Possession

LEC

41%

GEN

59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

4 Big Chances Created 1

7 Shots 6

45 Dangerous attacks 34

32 Possession 68

1 Corners 6

6 Free kicks 11

2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

12 Successful Headers 11

14 Dribble Attempts 7

1 Assists 0

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 14

28 Throwins 23

7 Successful Dribbles 1

11 Goal Kicks 6

5 Substitutions 5

2 Hit Woodwork 0

60 Ball Safe 64

6 Goal Attempts 4

2 Injuries 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 64

3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

242 Passes 504

73 Successful Passes Percentage 84

176 Successful Passes 425

59 Long Passes 49

7 Key Passes 6

49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

29 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

9 Tackles 21

3 Interceptions 2

34 Duels Won 44

1 Saves 3

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 20

2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Manager ▼

E. Di Francesco Coach

Starting XI ▼

Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper

6.83

Jamil Siebert Defender

6.75

Danilo Veiga Defender

6.71

Antonino Gallo Defender

6.71

Tiago Gabriel Defender

6.88

Ylber Ramadani Midfielder

6.81

Gaspar

89'

6.74

Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder

6.82

Oumar Ngom Midfielder

6.63

Omri Gandelman

46'

6.57

Lameck Banda Attacker

6.66

Konan N’Dri

65'

6.53

Santiago Pierotti Attacker

6.54

Gaby Jean

80'

6.58

Walid Cheddira Attacker

6.6

Nikola Stulic

80'

6.66

Substitutes ▼

Omri Gandelman

46'

6.57

Konan N’Dri

65'

6.53

Gaby Jean

80'

6.58

Nikola Stulic

80'

6.66

Gaspar

89'

6.74

Bench ▼

Christian Früchtl

6.43

Corrie Ndaba

6.43

Álex Sala

6.53

Sadik Fofana

6.53

Matías Pérez

6.87

Thórir Jóhann Helgason

6.63

Francesco Camarda

6.52

Olaf Gorter

6.58

Jasper Samooja

Filip Marchwinski

6.73

Referee : Daniele Doveri