Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare Mon, 20 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lecce LEC
1 – 1
Fiorentina FIO
Full Time Mon, 20 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Tiago Gabriel - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Jack Harrison - 30'

CONTEXT

Lecce and Fiorentina played out a 1-1 draw in Serie A, with Lecce hosting and holding 55% possession to Fiorentina's 45%. Fiorentina took the lead at halftime 1-0, but Lecce equalized in the second half to claim a point. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Fiorentina experienced a significant structural deviation of 71.6%, as the result did not align with expectations favoring them. Market assessments were not aligned with the outcome. Efficiency for both sides remained in line with expectations, supported by the lack of red cards or major disruptive events. No second-half adjustments were noted, and the even final score reflected Lecce's territorial dominance translating into a resilient performance without overpowering clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 71.6% deviation attributed to Fiorentina due to the draw against their pre-match favored status.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: No xG data available to assess alignment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was false, as the draw deviated from pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to unavailable data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion to the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Maresca

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Perri

4th Official

V. Colarossi

1st Assistant

P. Dei Giudici

2nd Assistant

Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
VS
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: L
Roma Rank: L
Napoli Rank: L
Cremonese Rank: W
Como Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lazio Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: W
Parma Rank: D
Udinese Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lecce
26.77%
Draw
28.39%
Away Fiorentina
44.83%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lecce
+23.17%
Draw
-62.5%
Fiorentina
+39.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
11.99
35.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lecce
Fiorentina
Power Score
11.99
35.86
League Position
18
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lecce Fiorentina

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fiorentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lecce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fiorentina
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.36
13.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.44
31.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lecce +1.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Fiorentina -1.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lecce
Fiorentina
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lecce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fiorentina
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lecce Fiorentina
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lecce Fiorentina
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lecce
Fiorentina
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lecce
vs
Fiorentina
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lecce Fiorentina
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lecce 0.22
Fiorentina 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lecce Fiorentina
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lecce 0.05
Fiorentina 0.02
Lecce
Fiorentina
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEC had peak pressure around 86'.
  • LEC started the game with stronger pressure.
LEC Pressure FIO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEC reached the top pressure at 86' (82.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lecce LEC Home
17 matches
Fiorentina FIO Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
6
Goals
16
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
16
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-04-21T00:01:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 W. Falcone
D. Melo Veiga
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
A. Gallo
Substitution
Italy
25 A. Gallo
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
O. Ngom
Substitution
France
79 O. Ngom
S. Pierotti
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
K. Jocelyn N’dri
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
W. Cheddira
Substitution
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira
Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
Spain
43 D. de Gea Quintana
R. Gosens
Substitution
Germany
21 R. Gosens
L. Ranieri
Italy
6 L. Ranieri
M. Pongracic
Croatia
5 M. Pongracic
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
Brazil
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
C. Ndour
Substitution
Italy
27 C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
Substitution
Italy
44 N. Fagioli
R. Mandragora
Italy
8 R. Mandragora
A. Gudmundsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 A. Gudmundsson
R. Piccoli
Italy
91 R. Piccoli
J. Harrison
Substitution
England
17 J. Harrison

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 20, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Capacity :
40800
Attendance :
26366
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Mario Perri
Fabio Maresca
Valerio Colarossi
Pietro Dei Giudici

Statistics

Possession
LEC
56%
FIO
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 1
65 Dangerous attacks 21
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
78 Ball Safe 96
3 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 5
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
4 Substitutions 5
26 Throwins 25
21 Successful Headers 13
14 Successful Dribbles 5
20 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Goal Kicks 12

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
121 Attacks 69

Possession

376 Passes 331
79 Successful Passes Percentage 77
45 Long Passes 51
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
296 Successful Passes 256
17 Successful Long Passes 17
9 Key Passes 5

Defensive

2 Saves 2
4 Interceptions 8
66 Duels Won 44
20 Tackles 20

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 2
30 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
6.8
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
6.76
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.68
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.7
3
Corrie Ndaba
Corrie Ndaba
Defender85'
6.42
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.9
11
Konan N’Dri
Konan N’Dri Midfielder
6.55
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda
Midfielder56'
6.62
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.78
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.81
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.53
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.66
16
Omri Gandelman
Omri Gandelman
Midfielder57'
6.56
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
6.6
9
Nikola Stulic
Nikola Stulic
Attacker57'
6.66
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.84
2
Dodô
Dodô Defender
6.91
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.76
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Defender
6.74
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Defender
6.85
62
Luís Balbo
Luís Balbo
Defender11'
6.63
8
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora Midfielder
7.09
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Midfielder
6.66
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini
Midfielder80'
6.63
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder
7.21
80
Giovanni Fabbian
Giovanni Fabbian
Midfielder80'
6.67
10
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson Attacker
6.9
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon
Attacker60'
7.03
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.72
22
Jacopo Fazzini
Jacopo Fazzini
Midfielder80'
6.58
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Attacker
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Manor Solomon
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Corrie Ndaba → Antonino Gallo
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Jacopo Fazzini
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Jacopo Fazzini → Jack Harrison
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Marin Pongracic
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Marco Brescianini → Cher Ndour
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Giovanni Fabbian → Nicolò Fagioli
7th Substitution
76'
Event
David de Gea
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tiago Gabriel
2nd Yellowcard
72'
Event
7th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Tiago Gabriel
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Santiago Pierotti
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
62'
60'
Event
Manor Solomon → Albert Gudmundsson
5th Substitution
Event
Omri Gandelman → Oumar Ngom
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Nikola Stulic → Walid Cheddira
4th Substitution
57'
Event
Lameck Banda → Konan N’Dri
2nd Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Jack Harrison
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
11'
Event
Luís Balbo → Robin Gosens
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Fouled by Dodô of Fiorentina.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Lecce and Fiorentina drawing 1-1.
90
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Corrie Ndaba concedes.
90
Update Update
Giovanni Fabbian of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Danilo Veiga from Lecce won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Manor Solomon of Fiorentina.
90
Update Update
Giovanni Fabbian of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Manor Solomon of Fiorentina receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Lassana Coulibaly of Lecce.
90
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce won a free kick on the left wing.
88
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jamil Siebert from Lecce.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Corrie Ndaba replaces Antonino Gallo.
86
Update Update
Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina committed a foul.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina receives a yellow card for a foul.
82
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacopo Fazzini of Fiorentina.
81
Update Update
Nikola Stulic from Lecce misses a close-range header that goes over the bar, assisted by Omri Gandelman's cross.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Marco Brescianini replaces Cher Ndour.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marin Pongracic of Fiorentina receives a yellow card.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Jacopo Fazzini replaces Jack Harrison.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Giovanni Fabbian replaces Nicolò Fagioli.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Omri Gandelman of Lecce.
77
Update Update
Cher Ndour of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
David de Gea of Fiorentina receives a yellow card.
75
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Pierotti from Lecce misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
73
Corner Corner
Cher Ndour of Fiorentina misses a chance, heading the ball over the goal from close range. The assist came from Nicolò Fagioli, who provided a cross following a corner.
72
Corner Corner
Fiorentina wins a corner after Jamil Siebert concedes.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tiago Gabriel of Lecce receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lecce equalizes at 1-1 with Tiago Gabriel scoring from close range with a header into the right corner, assisted by Antonino Gallo's cross following a corner.
70
Corner Corner
Lecce wins a corner after David de Gea concedes.
70
Corner Corner
Lecce wins a corner after David de Gea concedes.
69
Update Update
Ylber Ramadani from Lecce won a free kick in an attacking position.
69
Update Update
Fouled by Cher Ndour of Fiorentina.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ylber Ramadani's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Antonino Gallo provided the assist.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Tiago Gabriel of Lecce.
66
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina won a free kick in the attacking area.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Danilo Veiga from Lecce took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
64
Corner Corner
Lecce is awarded a corner after Luca Ranieri concedes.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Pierotti of Lecce receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Lassana Coulibaly of Lecce.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Manor Solomon replaces Albert Gudmundsson.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Marin Pongracic of Fiorentina.
58
Update Update
Nikola Stulic from Lecce won a free kick in defense.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Nikola Stulic replaces Walid Cheddira.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Omri Gandelman replaces Oumar Ngom.
56
Update Update
Offside called against Lecce. Danilo Veiga is in an offside position.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Lameck Banda replaces Konan N'Dri.
54
Attempt Attempt
Lassana Coulibaly's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
54
Update Update
Tiago Gabriel from Lecce won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Fouled by Roberto Piccoli of Fiorentina.
50
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira from Lecce missed a right-footed shot from over 35 yards.
47
Update Update
Handball by Albert Gudmundsson of Fiorentina.
45
Update Update
Dodô from Fiorentina commits a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
Konan N'Dri's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Tiago Gabriel provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Lecce trailing Fiorentina 1-0.
45
Update Update
Walid Cheddira from Lecce won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lecce 0, Fiorentina 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Oumar Ngom from Lecce takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
Ylber Ramadani from Lecce won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Cher Ndour for Fiorentina.
44
Attempt Attempt
Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina attempts a header from the center of the box, but it's saved by Lecce's goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Luís Balbo, who delivered a cross.
42
Update Update
Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce commits a foul.
42
Update Update
Nicolò Fagioli from Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
38
Attempt Attempt
Roberto Piccoli from Fiorentina missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from close range after a fast break.
36
Update Update
Offside called against Lecce. Walid Cheddira is offside.
35
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Rolando Mandragora from Fiorentina.
34
Update Update
Tiago Gabriel's header from close range is blocked.
33
Update Update
Rolando Mandragora from Fiorentina committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Ylber Ramadani from Lecce won a free kick on the left wing.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiorentina takes the lead 1-0 with Jack Harrison scoring from the left corner of the box with a left-footed shot, assisted by Rolando Mandragora.
29
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Rolando Mandragora of Fiorentina shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but Wladimiro Falcone of Lecce saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Jack Harrison.
28
Corner Corner
Lecce wins a corner after David de Gea concedes.
28
Update Update
Luís Balbo of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Marin Pongracic from Fiorentina commits a foul.
22
Update Update
Danilo Veiga of Lecce won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Luís Balbo of Fiorentina was awarded a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Pierotti of Lecce.
19
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Danilo Veiga from Lecce.
17
Update Update
Walid Cheddira's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Danilo Veiga's cross.
17
Update Update
Fouled by Luís Balbo of Fiorentina.
17
Update Update
Danilo Veiga from Lecce won a free kick on the right wing.
13
Corner Corner
Lecce is awarded a corner after Nicolò Fagioli concedes it.
13
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Konan N'Dri of Lecce heads the ball from the left side of the box but misses to the left. The assist came from Antonino Gallo, who provided a cross after a corner.
11
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Fiorentina: Luís Balbo replaces Robin Gosens due to injury.
10
Update Update
Fiorentina is called offside as Roberto Piccoli is in an offside position.
10
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Robin Gosens of Fiorentina.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce shot with his right foot from the right side of the box.
7
Corner Corner
Lecce wins a corner after Robin Gosens concedes.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Pierotti of Lecce.
4
Update Update
Robin Gosens of Fiorentina won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Oumar Ngom from Lecce.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw encapsulates Lecce's effective home strategy, leveraging 55% possession to erase Fiorentina's halftime lead and secure parity against the stronger-rated visitors. This outcome marked a significant deviation for Fiorentina, misaligning with pre-match market views while efficiencies held steady for both. Without xG metrics or red cards, the match highlighted balanced play and Lecce's second-half resolve, denying Fiorentina a win despite their status. The result maintains competitive equilibrium, underscoring tactical discipline over dominance.

Lecce vs Fiorentina preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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