Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Océane Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Le Havre LEH
0 Winner 1
Olympique Marseille OM
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mason Greenwood - 55' (P)

CONTEXT

Le Havre welcomed Olympique Marseille to the Stade Océane in a competitive Ligue 1 clash that concluded 0-1 in favor of the visitors. The halftime score stood at 0-0, with both teams holding 50% possession in a balanced opening period. Marseille, entering as the stronger team, found a breakthrough in the second half to claim all three points. Despite even territorial control, the away side demonstrated greater clinicality in key moments. The match featured no red cards or major disruptions, allowing a fluid contest. Structural analysis reveals a significant 51.3% deviation favoring Marseille, while efficiencies stayed in line with norms. Market expectations aligned perfectly with the outcome, underscoring Marseille's preeminence without xG data available for deeper insights.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Olympique Marseille experienced a significant 51.3% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Bastien

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Zakrani

1st Assistant

France

A. Berthomieu

2nd Assistant

France

M. Lesage

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
VS
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 72 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Le Havre
26.01%
Draw
25.29%
Away Olympique Marseille
48.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
Le Havre
+25.82%
Draw
+19.64%
Olympique Marseille
-45.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.62
78.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
Power Score
67.62
78.71
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
264
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Le Havre Olympique Marseille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Le Havre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Marseille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Le Havre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Marseille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Le Havre Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Le Havre Olympique Marseille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Le Havre
vs
Olympique Marseille
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Le Havre Olympique Marseille
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Le Havre 0.00
Olympique Marseille 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Le Havre Olympique Marseille
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Le Havre 0.00
Olympique Marseille 0.00
Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OM had peak pressure around 59'.
  • LEH started the game with stronger pressure.
LEH Pressure OM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OM reached the top pressure at 59' (71.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Le Havre LEH Home
7 matches
Olympique Marseille OM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
0
Draws
0
7
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
5
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T18:31:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Diaw
Senegal
99 M. Diaw
A. Sangante
Senegal
93 A. Sangante
A. Seko
Japan
15 A. Seko
G. Lloris
France
4 G. Lloris
Y. Zouaoui
Substitution
France
18 Y. Zouaoui
R. N'Diaye
Senegal
14 R. N'Diaye
L. Gourna Douath
Substitution
France
19 L. Gourna Douath
F. Doucouré
Substitution
Mali
13 F. Doucouré
S. Boufal
Substitution
Morocco
17 S. Boufal
I. Soumaré
Senegal
45 I. Soumaré
M. Samatta
Tanzania
25 M. Samatta
Pitch
G. Rulli
Argentina
1 G. Rulli
E. Palmieri dos Santos
Italy
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
F. Medina
Argentina
32 F. Medina
L. Balerdi Rossa
Argentina
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
B. Pavard
France
28 B. Pavard
P. Højbjerg
Denmark
23 P. Højbjerg
T. Nadi
Substitution
Nigeria
6 T. Nadi
I. Barbosa da Paixão
Brazil
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
Q. Timber
Substitution
Netherlands
27 Q. Timber
M. Greenwood
Substitution
England
10 M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
Substitution
Algeria
9 A. Gouiri

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Océane
Capacity :
25181
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Berthomieu
Mikael Lesage

Statistics

Possession
LEH
51%
OM
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 7
43 Dangerous attacks 35
50 Possession 50
3 Corners 0
21 Free kicks 19
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Successful Headers 18
20 Dribble Attempts 14
22 Throwins 17
3 Goal Kicks 7
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 21
5 Successful Dribbles 3
103 Ball Safe 99
1 Injuries 0
4 Goal Attempts 6
1 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

97 Attacks 95
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

309 Successful Passes 316
5 Key Passes 4
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
20 Successful Long Passes 13
386 Passes 391
80 Successful Passes Percentage 81
52 Long Passes 38

Defensive

6 Interceptions 14
21 Tackles 21
62 Duels Won 60
2 Saves 2

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 5
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

20 Fouls 22
4 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.93
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Defender
6.96
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Defender
6.77
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Defender
6.85
27
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Attacker80'
6.55
93
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante Defender
6.78
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Midfielder
6.72
32
Timothée Pembélé
Timothée Pembélé
Defender72'
6.53
14
Rassoul Ndiaye
Rassoul Ndiaye Midfielder
6.97
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Midfielder
6.84
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog
Midfielder72'
6.61
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Midfielder
6.77
8
Yassine Kechta
Yassine Kechta
Midfielder89'
6.58
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Midfielder
7.08
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Attacker
6.65
Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

1
Gerónimo Rulli
Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper
6.96
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Defender
6.79
28
Benjamin Pavard
Benjamin Pavard Defender
6.82
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
6.8
33
Emerson
Emerson Defender
7.02
6
Tochukwu Nnadi
Tochukwu Nnadi Midfielder
6.63
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren
Midfielder66'
6.64
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Midfielder
7.54
78
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago
Attacker87'
6.96
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Midfielder
6.91
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
7.18
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber Midfielder
6.73
71
Nouhoum Kamissoko
Nouhoum Kamissoko
Midfielder87'
6.74
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Attacker
7.06
70
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri
Attacker90'
6.29

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Igor Paixão
Goal disallowed
90'
Event
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri → Amine Gouiri
8th Substitution
Event
Yassine Kechta → Lucas Gourna-Douath
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Simon Ebonog
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
88'
87'
Event
Emmanuel Israel Ange Lago → Mason Greenwood
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Nouhoum Kamissoko → Quinten Timber
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Quinten Timber
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Enzo Koffi Vinette → Yanis Zouaoui
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Timothée Pembélé → Fodé Doucouré
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Simon Ebonog → Sofiane Boufal
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Sofiane Boufal
Woodwork
71'
66'
Event
Arthur Vermeeren → Tochukwu Nnadi
1st Substitution
59'
Event
Tochukwu Nnadi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Yanis Zouaoui
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
55'
Event
Mason Greenwood
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
54'
Event
Igor Paixão
Penalty awarded
Event
Ayumu Seko
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
47'
1ST-HALF
Event
Sofiane Boufal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
41'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Ugo Lamare El Kadmiri replaces Amine Gouiri.
90
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rassoul Ndiaye takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Yassine Kechta comes on for Lucas Gourna-Douath.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Simon Ebonog.
87
Update Update
Emmanuel Lago replaces Mason Greenwood.
87
Update Update
Nouhoum Kamissoko comes on for Quinten Timber.
84
Attempt Attempt
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Quinten Timber receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Enzo Koffi comes on for Yanis Zouaoui.
72
Update Update
On comes Simon Ebonog, off goes Sofiane Boufal.
72
Update Update
Timothee Pembele comes on for Fode Doucoure.
71
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal has his penalty saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
71
Attempt Attempt
Issa Soumare's header is saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Fode Doucoure takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mbwana Samatta takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Substitution Substitution
Arthur Vermeeren is substituted for Tochukwu Nnadi.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tochukwu Nnadi receives a yellow card.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yanis Zouaoui receives a yellow card.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Mason Greenwood scores, making it 0-1.
53
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mbwana Samatta attempts a header but misses the shot.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayumu Seko receives a yellow card.
46
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Gourna-Douath takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sofiane Boufal receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Tochukwu Nnadi's left-footed shot is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Amine Gouiri takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Mbwana Samatta has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Olympique Marseille's disciplined 1-0 triumph at Le Havre cements their stronger standing, converting balanced possession into a vital win. The goalless first half gave way to second-half resolve, exploiting subtle edges without chaos from reds or shifts. Significant deviation and market harmony validate the result's logic, even sans xG metrics. Le Havre's resilience earns respect, yet their toothless finish costs dearly. Marseille builds momentum for tougher tests ahead, while hosts regroup to ignite scoring form. This encounter exemplifies fine margins defining elite campaigns.

Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ligue 1, France View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ