Le Havre vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Océane Sun, 15 Mar - 4:15 PM
Ligue 1
Le Havre LEH
0 – 0
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
Full Time Sun, 15 Mar 4:15 PM
Stephan Zagadou 55' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Le Havre 0–0 Olympique Lyonnais. The match ended in a draw. Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 35%–65%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Olympique Lyonnais showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Stinat

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Kherradji

4th Official

C. Mouysset

1st Assistant

Y. El Hamzaoui

2nd Assistant

Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
VS
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brest Rank: 75 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 92 L
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Toulouse Rank: 74 W
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Lens Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 65 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 78 W
Metz Rank: 63 W
Brest Rank: 74 W
Monaco Rank: 77 W
Le Havre Rank: 69 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Le Havre
27.72%
Draw
27.93%
Away Olympique Lyonnais
44.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.58
81.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Le Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
Power Score
66.58
81.61
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
257
49

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Le Havre Olympique Lyonnais

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Le Havre

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Le Havre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Lyonnais
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.43
24.77
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.77
37.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Le Havre +1.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Olympique Lyonnais -1.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Le Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Le Havre ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Olympique Lyonnais
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Le Havre Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Le Havre Olympique Lyonnais
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Le Havre
Olympique Lyonnais
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Le Havre LEH Home
5 matches
Olympique Lyonnais LYO Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
5
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T02:36:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Diaw
Senegal
99 M. Diaw
L. Nego
Hungary
7 L. Nego
S. Zagadou
29 S. Zagadou
A. Sangante
Senegal
93 (C) A. Sangante
E. Koffi Vinette
Substitution
France
27 E. Koffi Vinette
A. Seko
Japan
15 A. Seko
L. Gourna Douath
France
19 L. Gourna Douath
S. Boufal
Substitution
Morocco
17 S. Boufal
R. N'Diaye
Senegal
14 R. N'Diaye
M. Samatta
Substitution
Tanzania
25 M. Samatta
I. Soumaré
Senegal
45 I. Soumaré
Pitch
R. Descamps
France
40 R. Descamps
N. Alejandro Tagliafico
Substitution
Argentina
3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
M. Niakhaté
Senegal
19 M. Niakhaté
T. Tessmann
United States
6 T. Tessmann
H. Hateboer
Substitution
Netherlands
33 H. Hateboer
O. Mangala
Substitution
Belgium
5 O. Mangala
T. Morton
England
23 T. Morton
A. Da Silva Santos
Brazil
16 A. Da Silva Santos
C. Tolisso
France
8 (C) C. Tolisso
A. Karabec
Substitution
Czech Republic
7 A. Karabec
E. Moreira de Sousa
Substitution
Brazil
9 E. Moreira de Sousa

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 15, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Stade Océane
Capacity :
25181
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
A. Kherradji
Jeremy Stinat
Christophe Mouysset
Youssef El Hamzaoui

Statistics

Possession
LEH
39%
LYO
61%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 2
22 Dangerous attacks 62
35 Possession 65
2 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Hit Woodwork 0
32 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
3 Substitutions 5
10 Successful Headers 14
6 Successful Dribbles 10
16 Throwins 26
19 Dribble Attempts 19
9 Goal Attempts 12
94 Ball Safe 86
11 Goal Kicks 9
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

50 Attacks 108
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

206 Successful Passes 446
77 Successful Passes Percentage 87
19 Successful Long Passes 30
54 Long Passes 43
268 Passes 511
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 70
8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

19 Tackles 14
10 Interceptions 2
4 Saves 4
50 Duels Won 46

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 7
19 Total Crosses 31

Discipline

5 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
7.6
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Defender
7.23
27
Enzo Koffi Vinette
Enzo Koffi Vinette Defender
6.23
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui
Defender68'
6.37
29
Stephan Zagadou
Stephan Zagadou Defender
5.81
93
Arouna Sangante
Arouna Sangante (C) Defender
7.28
14
Rassoul Ndiaye
Rassoul Ndiaye Midfielder
7.41
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Midfielder
6.77
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Midfielder
7.12
33
Kenny Quetant
Kenny Quetant
Attacker85'
6.53
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Midfielder
6.98
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Attacker
6.74
8
Yassine Kechta
Yassine Kechta
Midfielder63'
6.64
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Attacker
7.1
Referee : Jeremy Stinat

Starting XI ▼

40
Rémy Descamps
Rémy Descamps Goalkeeper
7.79
3
Nicolás Tagliafico
Nicolás Tagliafico Defender
7.02
38
Steeve Kango
Steeve Kango
Defender80'
6.4
6
Tanner Tessmann
Tanner Tessmann Defender
6.9
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
7.12
33
Hans Hateboer
Hans Hateboer Defender
7.16
34
Adil Hamdani
Adil Hamdani
Attacker80'
6.74
5
Orel Mangala
Orel Mangala Midfielder
6.9
99
Noah Nartey
Noah Nartey
Midfielder72'
6.53
7
Adam Karabec
Adam Karabec Midfielder
6.78
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk
Attacker58'
6.68
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso (C) Midfielder
6.58
16
Abner
Abner Midfielder
7.27
23
Tyler Morton
Tyler Morton Midfielder
6.96
9
Endrick
Endrick Attacker
7.04
18
Rachid Ghezza
Rachid Ghezza
Attacker80'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mory Diaw
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Kenny Quetant → Sofiane Boufal
8th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Tanner Tessmann
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Adil Hamdani → Hans Hateboer
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Steeve Kango → Nicolás Tagliafico
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Rachid Ghezza → Endrick
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Paulo Fonseca
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Noah Nartey → Orel Mangala
4th Substitution
Event
Yanis Zouaoui → Enzo Koffi Vinette
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Yassine Kechta → Ally Samatta
2nd Substitution
63'
58'
Event
Roman Yaremchuk → Adam Karabec
1st Substitution
Event
Stephan Zagadou
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
55'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Nicolás Tagliafico
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
Event
Adam Karabec
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
42'
Event
Paulo Fonseca
5th Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Adil Hamdani from Lyon committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Yassine Kechta from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Le Havre. Kenny Quetant has been caught offside.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score remaining Le Havre 0, Lyon 0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Adil Hamdani from Lyon attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but failed to find the target.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mory Diaw from Le Havre has been shown a yellow card.
87
Update Update
Steeve Kango from Lyon committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Yanis Zouaoui from Le Havre earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Rassoul Ndiaye from Le Havre was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
86
Update Update
Rachid Ghezzal from Lyon committed a foul.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Kenny Quetant replaces Sofiane Boufal.
83
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Tanner Tessmann from Lyon committed a foul.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tanner Tessmann of Lyon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
82
Update Update
Issa Soumaré from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
82
Update Update
Moussa Niakhaté from Lyon committed a foul.
81
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Corentin Tolisso from Lyon took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Steeve Kango comes on to replace Nicolás Tagliafico.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Adil Hamdani comes on to replace Hans Hateboer.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Rachid Ghezzal comes on to replace Endrick.
79
Update Update
Noah Nartey from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
79
Update Update
Yassine Kechta from Le Havre committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Moussa Niakhaté from Lyon commits a handball.
78
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Roman Yaremchuk of Lyon attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it over the bar. The cross was delivered by Nicolás Tagliafico.
77
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre earned a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Noah Nartey from Lyon committed a foul.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Endrick from Lyon attempted a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed high and wide to the left. The assist came from Abner Vinícius, who delivered a cross.
75
Update Update
Offside call against Le Havre. Issa Soumaré has been caught in an offside position.
73
Update Update
Tyler Morton from Lyon has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
73
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre committed a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Noah Nartey comes on to replace Orel Mangala.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Yanis Zouaoui comes on to replace Enzo Koffi.
67
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Mory Diaw, the Le Havre goalkeeper, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Orel Mangala.
65
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Roman Yaremchuk of Lyon attempted a header from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the top left corner. The assist came from Corentin Tolisso, who delivered a well-placed cross.
65
Update Update
Mory Diaw from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon committed a foul.
64
Attempt Attempt
Loïc Négo from Le Havre strikes the right post with a right-footed shot taken from the right side of the penalty area, with Sofiane Boufal providing the assist.
64
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Loïc Négo from Le Havre takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sails over the goal.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Le Havre: Yassine Kechta replaces Mbwana Samatta.
60
Update Update
Offside call against Lyon. Tyler Morton has been caught in an offside position.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lyon: Roman Yaremchuk comes on to replace Adam Karabec.
55
Red Card Red Card Important
Stephan Zagadou from Le Havre has been shown a red card.
55
Update Update
Stephan Zagadou from Le Havre committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Endrick from Lyon has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
55
Update Update
Stephan Zagadou from Le Havre committed a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from a challenging angle on the left side.
52
Update Update
Offside call against Lyon. Hans Hateboer has been caught in an offside position.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. Tyler Morton from Lyon took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Adam Karabec, who set him up with a header.
52
Attempt Attempt
Endrick from Lyon attempts a shot with his left foot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended and blocked.
51
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Issa Soumaré from Le Havre attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Rassoul Ndiaye.
50
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
50
Update Update
Orel Mangala from Lyon committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Orel Mangala from Lyon committed a foul.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nicolás Tagliafico of Lyon attempted a header from the middle of the box but couldn’t find the target. The cross was delivered by Abner Vinícius.
47
Update Update
Orel Mangala from Lyon committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Endrick from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
Arouna Sangante from Le Havre committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Le Havre 0, Lyon 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Le Havre 0, Lyon 0.
43
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolás Tagliafico of Lyon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adam Karabec from Lyon has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
41
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre.
41
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Endrick from Lyon takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but Mory Diaw, the goalkeeper for Le Havre, makes a save right in the center of the goal.
41
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre.
40
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Endrick from Lyon takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
39
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon earned a free kick on the left flank.
39
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
38
Update Update
Match interruption - Lyon.
36
Update Update
Offside call against Le Havre. Issa Soumaré has been caught in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Le Havre. Mbwana Samatta has been caught offside.
33
Update Update
Nicolás Tagliafico from Lyon committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Loïc Négo from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push. Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
30
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
30
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Moussa Niakhaté from Lyon.
29
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso from Lyon committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
27
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort unfolds. Abner Vinícius from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Mory Diaw from Le Havre makes a great save, pushing it away to the top left corner. The assist came from Endrick.
27
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lyon after Mory Diaw allowed the ball to go out.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Loïc Négo from Le Havre takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it goes just wide.
25
Update Update
Offside call against Lyon. Adam Karabec has been caught in an offside position.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
22
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Enzo Koffi from Le Havre.
22
Update Update
Match temporarily halted due to an injury to Corentin Tolisso from Lyon.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Le Havre after Moussa Niakhaté gave it away.
19
Update Update
Adam Karabec from Lyon has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Update Update
A new offensive play unfolds as Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre attempts a header from the center of the box. However, Rémy Descamps from Lyon makes a crucial save, diving to his left. The assist came from Loïc Négo, who delivered a precise cross.
19
Update Update
Enzo Koffi from Le Havre has committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Orel Mangala from Lyon committed a foul.
16
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
15
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
15
Update Update
Orel Mangala from Lyon committed a foul.
15
Update Update
Sofiane Boufal from Le Havre earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
15
Update Update
Match temporarily paused due to an injury to Mbwana Samatta from Le Havre.
14
Update Update
Enzo Koffi from Le Havre has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
14
Update Update
Adam Karabec from Lyon committed a foul.
12
Update Update
Loïc Négo from Le Havre committed a foul.
12
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Mory Diaw from Le Havre makes a great save, stopping the ball in the left corner.
12
Update Update
Corentin Tolisso from Lyon was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
10
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lucas Gourna-Douath from Le Havre takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Rémy Descamps from Lyon makes a save, directing the ball to the left corner. The assist for this play comes from Mbwana Samatta.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Issa Soumaré from Le Havre attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Le Havre after a play that resulted in Rémy Descamps conceding the ball.
6
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Issa Soumaré from Le Havre attempts a header from within the six-yard box on the left side, but it's successfully stopped.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Endrick from Lyon takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it goes just wide to the left. The assist came from Adam Karabec.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lyon after Arouna Sangante allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Olympique Lyonnais exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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