Lazio vs Sassuolo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Mon, 9 Mar - 7:45 PM
Serie A
Lazio LAZ
2 Winner 1
Sassuolo SAS
Full Time Mon, 9 Mar 7:45 PM
Adam Marusic - 90+2'
Daniel Maldini - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Armand Laurienté - 35'

CONTEXT

The match between Lazio and Sassuolo has finished, with Lazio securing a hard-fought 2-1 victory at full-time. The teams went into the halftime break evenly matched at 1-1, but the home side ultimately pulled ahead in the second half. Heading into the fixture, Lazio were positioned as the stronger team and pre-match favorites with a 42.2% implied win probability, compared to a 30.2% chance of a draw and a 27.6% chance for a Sassuolo upset. On the pitch, the flow of the game was perfectly balanced, with both Lazio and Sassuolo controlling exactly 50% of the possession. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this contest, the final result successfully aligned with the pre-match market predictions. Despite winning as expected, Lazio still produced a significant positive deviation of 57.8% from their baseline expectations to claim all three points. The overall efficiency shift for the match remained in line with projections, as Lazio registered a positive efficiency rating of 1.45 compared to Sassuolo's -1.45. Furthermore, with no red cards issued to either side, the contest was decided strictly through uninterrupted 11-on-11 play, allowing the pre-match favorites to safely secure the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lazio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Arena

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Meli

1st Assistant

S. Alassio

2nd Assistant

P. Tremolada

4th Official

Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
1.3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: L
Juventus Rank: D
Genoa Rank: W
Lecce Rank: D
Como Rank: L
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Udinese Rank: W
Inter Rank: L
Pisa Rank: W
Cremonese Rank: W
Napoli Rank: L
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
42.2%
Draw
30.22%
Away Sassuolo
27.57%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.05
41.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Sassuolo
Power Score
44.05
41.54
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Sassuolo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.60
18.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.10
31.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio +1.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Sassuolo -1.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Sassuolo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Sassuolo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Sassuolo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Sassuolo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
9 matches
Sassuolo SAS Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
5
Goals
12
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
12
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-03-10T00:10:24+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 09, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alberto Arena
Filippo Meli
Stefano Alassio
Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
51%
SAS
49%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 4
56 Dangerous attacks 41
50 Possession 50
1 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 7
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 2
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Dribble Attempts 4
24 Throwins 20
2 Goal Kicks 9
12 Successful Headers 5
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 1
68 Ball Safe 83
3 Injuries 2
12 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

100 Attacks 111
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

38 Long Passes 50
10 Key Passes 4
89 Successful Passes Percentage 87
472 Successful Passes 455
533 Passes 525
23 Successful Long Passes 17
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34

Defensive

5 Tackles 15
3 Saves 3
4 Interceptions 5

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Marusic
Header / 3rd Goal
90+2'
88'
Event
Sebastian Walukiewicz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Armand Laurienté
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Darryl Bakola → Ismaël Koné
10th Substitution
Event
Pedro → Mattia Zaccagni 
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Gustav Isaksen
8th Substitution
79'
69'
Event
Sebastian Walukiewicz → Woyo Coulibaly
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Josh Doig → Ulisses Garcia
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Luca Moro → M'Bala Nzola
6th Substitution
Event
Boulaye Dia → Daniel Maldini
4th Substitution
65'
58'
Event
Ulisses Garcia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oliver Provstgaard → Alessio Romagnoli
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Nemanja Matic → Luca Lipani
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Patric  → Danilo Cataldi
1st Substitution
38'
37'
Event
Luca Lipani
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
35'
Event
Armand Laurienté
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Daniel Maldini
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Lazio defeating Sassuolo 2-1.
90
Update Update
Oliver Provstgaard from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Luca Moro from Sassuolo committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Sassuolo. Adam Marusic heads the ball into the center of the net from inside the box, thanks to a precise cross from Matteo Cancellieri.
88
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sebastian Walukiewicz of Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
88
Update Update
Sebastian Walukiewicz from Sassuolo committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Close call! Oliver Provstgaard of Lazio had a great opportunity with a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it went just wide of the goal. The assist came from Pedro, who delivered a perfect cross.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Armand Laurienté of Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
86
Update Update
Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Kristian Thorstvedt of Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio committed a foul.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Darryl Bakola comes on to replace Ismaël Koné.
82
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Update Update
Luca Moro from Sassuolo committed a foul.
82
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive push is underway. Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Arijanet Muric of Sassuolo makes a save, diving to his left. The assist was provided by Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a foul by Mario Gila.
80
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive push. Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Edoardo Motta of Lazio makes a save in the bottom left corner.
80
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Josh Doig from Sassuolo takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped in the right corner by Lazio's Edoardo Motta.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri comes on to replace Gustav Isaksen.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Pedro comes on to replace Mattia Zaccagni.
78
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity for Lazio as Gustav Isaksen fires a left-footed shot from the center of the box, narrowly missing the target. The chance was set up by Mario Gila, who provided a precise through ball during a quick counterattack.
76
Update Update
Offside call against Sassuolo. Luca Moro has been caught in an offside position.
75
Update Update
Luca Moro from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
75
Update Update
Oliver Provstgaard from Lazio committed a foul.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after Patric allowed the ball to go out.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after Mario Gila allowed the ball to go out.
72
Update Update
Offside call against Sassuolo. Domenico Berardi has been flagged for being offside.
72
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area. However, Arijanet Muric from Sassuolo makes a great save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Nuno Tavares.
69
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo committed a foul.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Sebastian Walukiewicz comes on to replace Ulisses Garcia.
69
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Luca Moro comes on to replace M'Bala Nzola.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Josh Doig comes on to replace Woyo Coulibaly.
67
Update Update
Offside call against Lazio. Mattia Zaccagni has been flagged for being offside.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia comes on to replace Daniel Maldini.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Lazio attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went over the bar and to the left. The assist came from Gustav Isaksen.
60
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
60
Update Update
Mario Gila from Lazio committed a foul.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the crossbar. The assist came from Domenico Berardi.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Kenneth Taylor from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ulisses Garcia of Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
58
Update Update
Ulisses Garcia from Sassuolo committed a foul.
58
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen of Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Oliver Provstgaard from Lazio committed a foul.
56
Update Update
M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo earned a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a play that resulted in a deflection off Oliver Provstgaard.
51
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Domenico Berardi from Sassuolo.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Oliver Provstgaard comes on to replace Alessio Romagnoli.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Lazio and Sassuolo.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sassuolo: Nemanja Matic comes on to replace Luca Lipani.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between Lazio and Sassuolo.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after Adam Marusic allowed the ball to go out.
42
Update Update
Ismaël Koné from Sassuolo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Lazio committed a foul.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Match temporarily halted due to an injury to Nuno Tavares from Lazio.
38
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Patric is coming on to replace Danilo Cataldi, who has sustained an injury.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
37
Update Update
Luca Lipani from Sassuolo committed a foul.
37
Update Update
Mattia Zaccagni from Lazio earned a free kick in the defensive area.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Lazio 1, Sassuolo 1. Armand Laurienté finds the net for Sassuolo with a right-footed strike from the center of the box, sending the ball into the top right corner. The assist comes from Kristian Thorstvedt.
33
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio committed a foul.
33
Update Update
Armand Laurienté from Sassuolo was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
31
Update Update
Jay Idzes commits a foul on a Sassuolo player.
31
Update Update
Daniel Maldini of Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
31
Update Update
The pause has ended, and they are set to resume play.
30
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Danilo Cataldi from Lazio.
30
Update Update
Offside call against Lazio. Daniel Maldini is caught in an offside position.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sassuolo after a foul by Edoardo Motta.
27
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive play underway. M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left side, but Edoardo Motta from Lazio makes a great save, stopping it at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Ulisses Garcia.
26
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Kristian Thorstvedt from Sassuolo attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Armand Laurienté.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. M'Bala Nzola from Sassuolo fires a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard area, but it's blocked.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play now.
23
Update Update
Offside call against Sassuolo. Domenico Berardi has been flagged for offside.
22
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Daniel Maldini from Lazio.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru of Lazio attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Kenneth Taylor.
16
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Gustav Isaksen from Lazio had a header from close range inside the six-yard box but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Danilo Cataldi, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lazio after Jay Idzes allowed the ball to go out.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gustav Isaksen from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's just off target. The assist came from Edoardo Motta.
11
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Danilo Cataldi from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Arijanet Muric from Sassuolo makes a brilliant save, reaching to the top right corner. The assist came from Mattia Zaccagni.
2
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gustav Isaksen from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Sassuolo. Daniel Maldini scores with a right-footed shot from close range, sending the ball straight into the center of the net.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lazio exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Lazio vs Sassuolo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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