Lazio vs Pisa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sat, 23 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lazio LAZ
2 Winner 1
Pisa PIS
Full Time Sat, 23 May 6:45 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Pedro - 35'
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Stefano Moreo - 23'

CONTEXT

Lazio defeated Pisa 2-1 in a match where the home side established a 2-1 halftime lead that remained unchanged through the second period. Possession finished nearly even at 49 percent for Lazio and 51 percent for Pisa. No red cards were shown to either side during the contest. Pre-match indicators showed a significant deviation of 44.1 percent centered on Lazio yet the final result proved consistent with those expectations. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns and no second-half adjustments altered the structural balance. The absence of expected goals data limited deeper alignment checks but the outcome reflected the stronger team's control throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A 44.1 percent significant deviation was recorded with Lazio as the focal team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The 2-1 result was aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were provided for either team.
  • Event impact: No notable events such as red cards occurred to influence the scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards were issued so no distortion affected the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Ferrieri Caputi

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Niedda

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Emmanuele

2nd Assistant

Italy

D. Di Marco

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.5
Yellow cards / match 3.26
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.35
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: 85 L
Inter Rank: 91 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Udinese Rank: 76 D
Napoli Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Napoli Rank: 85 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 L
Lecce Rank: 68 L
Parma Rank: 72 L
Genoa Rank: 75 L
Roma Rank: 86 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
55.89%
Draw
25.04%
Away Pisa
19.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lazio
-39.72%
Draw
+20.84%
Pisa
+18.88%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.14
53.12
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Pisa
Power Score
80.14
53.12
League Position
9
20
Global Rank
59
422

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Pisa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pisa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pisa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.98
17.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.94
33.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio +1.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Pisa -1.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Pisa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pisa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Pisa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Pisa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Pisa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lazio
vs
Pisa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lazio Pisa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lazio 0.45
Pisa 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lazio Pisa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lazio 0.04
Pisa 0.06
Lazio
Pisa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LAZ had peak pressure around 36'.
  • LAZ started the game with stronger pressure.
LAZ Pressure PIS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LAZ reached the top pressure at 36' (72.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
1 matches
Pisa PIS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:03:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Furlanetto
Italy
55 A. Furlanetto
A. Marušić
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
M. Fuentes
Substitution
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
L. Pellegrini
Substitution
Italy
3 L. Pellegrini
F. Dele-Bashiru
Substitution
Nigeria
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
T. Bašić
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
R. Belahyane
France
21 R. Belahyane
M. Cancellieri
Substitution
Italy
22 M. Cancellieri
T. Noslin
Netherlands
14 T. Noslin
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Substitution
Spain
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Pitch
A. Šemper
Croatia
1 A. Šemper
R. Bozhinov
Bulgaria
2 R. Bozhinov
S. Canestrelli
Italy
5 S. Canestrelli
A. Calabresi
Substitution
Italy
33 A. Calabresi
S. Angori
Italy
3 S. Angori
?. Vural
Türkiye
21 ?. Vural
E. Akinsanmiro
Substitution
Nigeria
14 E. Akinsanmiro
M. Aebischer
Substitution
Switzerland
20 M. Aebischer
M. Marcel Léris
Substitution
Algeria
7 M. Marcel Léris
F. Stojilkovic
Substitution
Switzerland
81 F. Stojilkovic
S. Moreo
Italy
32 S. Moreo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi
Andrea Niedda
Marco Emmanuele
Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
50%
PIS
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 8
33 Dangerous attacks 23
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Dribble Attempts 8
20 Throwins 12
2 Assists 1
4 Successful Headers 7
5 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 5
1 Injuries 1
77 Ball Safe 85
14 Goal Attempts 6

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
85 Attacks 92

Possession

54 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
20 Successful Long Passes 20
536 Passes 551
474 Successful Passes 487
88 Successful Passes Percentage 88
37 Long Passes 42
11 Key Passes 8

Defensive

1 Saves 7
6 Interceptions 10
28 Duels Won 35
11 Tackles 15

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 8
9 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

55
Alessio Furlanetto
Alessio Furlanetto Goalkeeper
3
Luca Pellegrini
Luca Pellegrini Defender
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari
Midfielder82'
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard
Defender46'
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
28
Adrian Przyborek
Adrian Przyborek
Midfielder82'
21
Reda Belahyane
Reda Belahyane Midfielder
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker61'
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Attacker
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini
Attacker71'
Referee : Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
2
Rosen Bozhinov
Rosen Bozhinov Defender
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Defender
33
Arturo Calabresi
Arturo Calabresi Defender
42
Brando Bettazzi
Brando Bettazzi
Midfielder77'
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori Midfielder
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
11
Juan Cuadrado
Juan Cuadrado
Midfielder71'
14
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Midfielder
8
Malthe Højholt
Malthe Højholt
Midfielder46'
20
Michel Aebischer
Michel Aebischer Midfielder
35
Felipe Loyola
Felipe Loyola
Defender61'
21
İsak Vural
İsak Vural Midfielder
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Attacker
81
Filip Stojilkovic
Filip Stojilkovic Attacker
36
Gabriele Piccinini
Gabriele Piccinini
Midfielder62'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adrian Przyborek → Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
10th Substitution
82'
Event
Manuel Lazzari → Luca Pellegrini
9th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Brando Bettazzi → Arturo Calabresi
8th Substitution
72'
Event
Gabriele Piccinini
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Maldini → Matteo Cancellieri
7th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Juan Cuadrado → Mehdi Léris
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Gabriele Piccinini → Filip Stojilkovic
5th Substitution
Event
Boulaye Dia → Pedro
3rd Substitution
61'
61'
Event
Felipe Loyola → Michel Aebischer
4th Substitution
Event
Oliver Provstgaard → Mario Gila
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Malthe Højholt → Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Pedro
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
35'
Event
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
29'
23'
Event
Stefano Moreo
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Mario Gila
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Przyborek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maldini takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maldini takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Felipe Ignacio Loyola Olea takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari replaces Luca Pellegrini.
82
Update Update
Adrian Przyborek replaces Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
80
Attempt Attempt
Rosen Bozhinov takes a header shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Brando Bettazzi replaces Arturo Calabresi.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Piccinini takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriele Piccinini receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Juan Guillermo Cuadrado Bello is on, and Mehdi Leris is off.
71
Update Update
Daniel Maldini replaces Matteo Cancellieri.
66
Attempt Attempt
Adam Marusic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Henrik Meister is on, and Filip Stojilkovic is off.
61
Update Update
Felipe Ignacio Loyola Olea comes on for Michel Aebischer.
61
Update Update
Boulaye Dia comes on for Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, also known as Pedrito.
59
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Moreo attempts a header but misses the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Reda Belahyane takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin's header is saved.
46
Update Update
Oliver Nielsen comes on for Mario Gila.
46
Update Update
Malthe Hojholt replaces Ebenezer Akinsanmiro.
45
Attempt Attempt
Toma Basic's left-footed shot is saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Luca Pellegrini takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma scores to make it 2-1.
35
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, known as Pedrito, takes a left-footed shot and scores.
33
Attempt Attempt
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru scores with a right-footed shot.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fisayo Dele-Bashiru scores, making it 1-1.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tijjani Noslin receives a yellow card.
27
Update Update
Simone Canestrelli's header is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Angori takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
23
Update Update
Stefano Moreo scores with a header.
11
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, also known as Pedrito, takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Gila receives a yellow card.
8
Attempt Attempt
Adam Marusic takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
6
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cancellieri takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Reda Belahyane takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Isak Vural takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Lazio maintained their halftime advantage to close out a 2-1 win over Pisa with balanced possession and no disciplinary interruptions. The significant pre-match deviation did not prevent the result from matching market alignment while efficiency stayed consistent across both halves. Without expected goals figures the analysis relied on possession and outcome data which confirmed the stronger side's control. The lack of second-half adjustments preserved the initial structural setup and the absence of red cards eliminated any potential distortion. Overall the fixture demonstrated steady progression from the opening period through to the final whistle without major shifts in balance or efficiency.

Lazio vs Pisa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.