Lazio vs Parma Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sat, 4 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lazio LAZ
1 – 1
Parma PRM
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Tijjani Noslin - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Enrico Delprato - 15'

CONTEXT

The match between Lazio and Parma is officially finished, ending in a 1-1 full-time draw. Parma initially controlled the scoreboard, holding a slim 1-0 advantage at half-time, before Lazio eventually found a second-half equalizer to secure a share of the points. This outcome represents a significant deviation for Lazio, who entered the fixture as the distinctly stronger team. Pre-match market probabilities favored the home side at 49%, while a draw sat at 30.3% and a Parma victory at just 20.7%. Consequently, the final result ultimately failed to align with pre-match market expectations. Lazio dictated the overall tempo of the game, holding 61% possession compared to Parma's 39%. While expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture to measure chance quality, the match's overall efficiency shift was still deemed to be in line with baseline expectations. Finally, the outcome was not impacted by any major disciplinary events, as the game concluded with zero red cards issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lazio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Marcenaro

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Rossi

1st Assistant

C. Rossi

2nd Assistant

D. Di Marco

4th Official

Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 79 W
AC Milan Rank: 87 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 W
Torino Rank: 74 L
Cagliari Rank: 69 D
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: 66 L
Torino Rank: 73 L
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 D
AC Milan Rank: 87 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 7 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
48.98%
Draw
30.31%
Away Parma
20.72%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.53
70.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Parma
Power Score
80.53
70.76
League Position
8
12
Global Rank
60
172

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Parma

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.70
22.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.18
17.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio -0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Parma +0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Parma
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Parma
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Parma
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Parma
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Parma
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lazio
vs
Parma
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lazio Parma
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lazio 0.09
Parma 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lazio Parma
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lazio 0.03
Parma 0.01
Lazio
Parma
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
29 matches
Parma PRM Away
Match Record
19
Wins
3
7
Draws
7
3
Losses
19
Goals
48
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
48
+25
Goal Difference
-25

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
A. Marušić
Substitution
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
F. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
D. Cataldi
Italy
32 D. Cataldi
K. Taylor
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
Substitution
Denmark
18 G. Isaksen
D. Maldini
Substitution
Italy
27 D. Maldini
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Substitution
Spain
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
L. Valenti
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
A. Circati
Australia
39 A. Circati
E. Del Prato
Italy
15 E. Del Prato
E. Valeri
Italy
14 E. Valeri
M. Keita
Substitution
Belgium
16 M. Keita
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Substitution
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
A. Bernabe Garcia
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Bernabe Garcia
S. Britschgi
Substitution
27 S. Britschgi
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Substitution
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato
M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Argentina
9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Matteo Marcenaro
Marcello Rossi
Christian Rossi
Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
59%
PRM
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Shots 2
76 Dangerous attacks 33
61 Possession 39
7 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
27 Throwins 21
6 Goal Kicks 12
8 Dribble Attempts 9
3 Successful Dribbles 5
6 Goal Attempts 5
46 Ball Safe 51
4 Successful Headers 13
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

124 Attacks 67

Possession

6 Key Passes 5
33 Long Passes 41
576 Passes 381
93 Successful Passes Percentage 85
534 Successful Passes 323
25 Successful Long Passes 19
76 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

24 Duels Won 39
8 Interceptions 2
10 Tackles 10
3 Saves 2

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 6
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari
Midfielder57'
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
32
Danilo Cataldi
Danilo Cataldi Midfielder
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin
Attacker58'
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri
Attacker58'
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini Attacker
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker65'
Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
15
Enrico Delprato
Enrico Delprato Defender
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati Defender
10
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián Bernabé Midfielder
24
Christian Ordóñez
Christian Ordóñez
Midfielder80'
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen
Midfielder90+2'
27
Sascha Britschgi
Sascha Britschgi Midfielder
29
Franco Carboni
Franco Carboni
Defender90+2'
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
8
Nahuel Estévez
Nahuel Estévez
Midfielder71'
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
21
Gaetano Oristanio
Gaetano Oristanio
Midfielder81'
9
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo Pellegrino Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Franco Carboni → Sascha Britschgi
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Oliver Sørensen → Mandela Keita
9th Substitution
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
85'
Event
Zion Suzuki
Penalty cancelled
81'
Event
Gaetano Oristanio → Gabriel Strefezza
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Christian Ordóñez → Adrián Bernabé
6th Substitution
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
71'
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
5th Substitution
Event
Boulaye Dia → Daniel Maldini
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Gustav Isaksen
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Tijjani Noslin → Pedro
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Manuel Lazzari → Adam Marusic
1st Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Mateo Pellegrino
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Gabriel Strefezza
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Enrico Delprato
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Oliver Sørensen replaces Mandela Keita.
90
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari from Lazio won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Nahuel Estévez concedes.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Franco Carboni replaces Sascha Britschgi.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Lazio and Parma drawing 1-1.
90
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino of Parma commits a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru of Lazio shoots with his right foot from outside the box but it goes high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Danilo Cataldi.
88
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mateo Pellegrino from Parma.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio won a free kick on the right wing.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Lautaro Valenti of Parma.
85
Update Update
Parma is called offside. Mateo Pellegrino is in an offside position.
82
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Parma.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Gaetano Oristanio replaces Gabriel Strefezza.
81
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Sascha Britschgi concedes.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Christian Ordóñez replaces Adrián Bernabé due to injury.
79
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Adrián Bernabé of Parma.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lazio equalizes with Tijjani Noslin scoring with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Kenneth Taylor. The match is now 1-1.
76
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari from Lazio committed a foul.
73
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Enrico Delprato concedes.
72
Attempt Attempt
Adrián Bernabé's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
71
Corner Corner
Parma is awarded a corner after Alessio Romagnoli concedes.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Nahuel Estévez replaces Hans Nicolussi Caviglia.
70
Attempt Attempt
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just close to the goal. The assist came from Matteo Cancellieri's cross.
68
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, just missing to the left. Adrián Bernabé provided the assist.
67
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza of Parma won a free kick on the left wing.
67
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi from Lazio committed a foul.
67
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Manuel Lazzari from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but Zion Suzuki from Parma saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
66
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Lautaro Valenti concedes.
65
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino of Parma won a free kick in defense.
62
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Kenneth Taylor from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Danilo Cataldi of Lazio.
60
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia from Parma takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Lazio's goalkeeper Edoardo Motta, with an assist from Adrián Bernabé.
58
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Hans Nicolussi Caviglia concedes.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri replaces Gustav Isaksen.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Tijjani Noslin replaces Pedro.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Manuel Lazzari replaces Adam Marusic.
56
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Fisayo Dele-Bashiru of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Zion Suzuki of Parma. The assist came from Danilo Cataldi.
54
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Alessio Romagnoli from Lazio.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Mateo Pellegrino of Parma.
53
Update Update
Alessio Romagnoli from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Adrián Bernabé from Parma won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Oliver Provstgaard of Lazio.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lazio trailing 0-1 to Parma.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has announced one minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Lazio trailing Parma 1-0.
44
Corner Corner
Emanuele Valeri from Parma attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top left corner by Edoardo Motta from Lazio. The assist came from Sascha Britschgi.
44
Corner Corner
Parma wins a corner after Edoardo Motta concedes.
42
Corner Corner
Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the box just wide. The assist came from Nuno Tavares, who delivered a cross following a corner.
42
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Sascha Britschgi concedes it.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio.
36
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino of Parma won a free kick in an attacking position.
35
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Enrico Delprato concedes.
35
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Maldini's shot for Lazio from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mateo Pellegrino of Parma receives a yellow card for a foul.
32
Update Update
Pedro from Lazio won a free kick in an attacking position.
32
Update Update
Pedro from Lazio won a free kick in the attacking area.
29
Update Update
Adrián Bernabé from Parma won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Maldini for Lazio.
27
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza commits a handball for Parma.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Strefezza of Parma.
27
Update Update
Danilo Cataldi of Lazio won a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma receives a yellow card for a foul.
24
Update Update
Daniel Maldini from Lazio is down, but the referee considers it simulation.
24
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri from Parma commits a foul.
24
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Alessandro Circati from Parma won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Maldini for Lazio.
19
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru fouled a Lazio player.
19
Update Update
Mandela Keita from Parma won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Strefezza of Parma.
17
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen of Lazio won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Alessandro Circati's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Emanuele Valeri's cross.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Parma takes the lead 1-0 with Enrico Delprato scoring from the center of the box with a right-footed shot into the right corner.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Danilo Cataldi of Lazio.
14
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma won a free kick in the attacking area.
13
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru commits a foul against Lazio.
13
Update Update
Mandela Keita of Parma won a free kick in defense.
11
Attempt Attempt
Adrián Bernabé from Parma attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Marusic of Lazio.
9
Update Update
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia from Parma won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lazio exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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