Lazio vs Inter Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Coppa Italia
Lazio LAZ
0 Winner 2
Inter INT
Full Time Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM
Final
|
Goal
Lautaro Martínez - 35'
Marcus Thuram - 14'

CONTEXT

Inter delivered a clinical performance to defeat Lazio 0-2 away from home, asserting dominance from the outset. The Nerazzurri raced into a 2-0 lead by halftime, courtesy of sharp finishing that capitalized on their superior control. Lazio, pinned back with just 42% possession against Inter's 58%, struggled to create meaningful chances throughout. Inter's midfield orchestrated play effectively, transitioning smoothly from defense to attack, while their backline repelled Lazio's sporadic forays. The second half saw no changes in momentum, as Inter managed the game astutely without needing adjustments. This result underscores Inter's strength as the pre-identified superior team, with the outcome reflecting a significant 41.4% deviation in their favor. Lazio's inability to respond highlighted tactical shortcomings, allowing Inter to secure a clean sheet and all three points convincingly.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Inter's victory featured a significant 41.4% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment is unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in the game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Guida

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Alassio

1st Assistant

Italy

G. Baccini

2nd Assistant

Italy

L. Zufferli

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Coppa Italia Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 14.25
Yellow cards / match 2
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Bologna Rank: 79 D
AC Milan Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 83 W
Como Rank: 84 D
Torino Rank: 75 W
Venezia Rank: 71 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
16.38%
Draw
25.01%
Away Inter
58.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lazio
+16.18%
Draw
+23.09%
Inter
-39.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
81.03
91.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Inter
Power Score
81.03
91.82
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
56
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Inter

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Inter
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Inter
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Inter
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Inter
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lazio
vs
Inter
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lazio Inter
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lazio 0.00
Inter 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lazio Inter
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lazio 0.00
Inter 0.00
Lazio
Inter
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • INT had peak pressure around 13'.
  • INT started the game with stronger pressure.
LAZ Pressure INT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: INT reached the top pressure at 13' (78.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
49 matches
Inter INT Away
Match Record
12
Wins
27
10
Draws
10
27
Losses
12
Goals
49
Goals Scored
86
86
Goals Conceded
49
-37
Goal Difference
+37

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
A. Marušić
Substitution
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
M. Fuentes
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
T. Bašić
Substitution
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
P. Gabarrón Gil
Substitution
Spain
4 P. Gabarrón Gil
K. Taylor
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
G. Isaksen
Substitution
Denmark
18 G. Isaksen
T. Noslin
Netherlands
14 T. Noslin
M. Zaccagni
Substitution
Italy
10 M. Zaccagni
Pitch
J. Martínez Riera
Spain
13 J. Martínez Riera
A. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
95 A. Bastoni
M. Akanji
Switzerland
25 M. Akanji
Y. Bisseck
Germany
31 Y. Bisseck
F. Dimarco
Italy
32 F. Dimarco
P. Sučić
Substitution
Croatia
8 P. Sučić
P. Zieliński
Poland
7 P. Zieliński
N. Barella
Italy
23 N. Barella
D. Dumfries
Substitution
Netherlands
2 D. Dumfries
L. Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
10 L. Martínez
M. Thuram
Substitution
France
9 M. Thuram

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Coppa Italia, Italy · Final
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Guida
Stefano Alassio
Giovanni Baccini
Luca Zufferli

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
43%
INT
57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 8
30 Dangerous attacks 39
42 Possession 58
1 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

71 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
7 Goal Kicks 8
25 Throwins 20
7 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Assists 2
2 Goal Attempts 7
51 Ball Safe 66
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

80 Attacks 111
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

341 Successful Passes 503
402 Passes 566
85 Successful Passes Percentage 89
6 Key Passes 7
39 Long Passes 59
24 Successful Long Passes 33
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

Defensive

16 Tackles 7
4 Interceptions 11
1 Saves 2
42 Duels Won 32

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
14 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
6.34
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
7.15
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.8
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
7.22
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
6.57
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari
Midfielder72'
6.43
4
Patric
Patric Midfielder
6.55
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella
Midfielder46'
6.72
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
6.83
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
7.23
9
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker78'
6.7
10
Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni Attacker
7.42
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker72'
6.82
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Attacker
6.71
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
6.73
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri
Attacker66'
6.6
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

13
Josep Martínez
Josep Martínez Goalkeeper
6.91
25
Manuel Akanji
Manuel Akanji Defender
6.81
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck Defender
6.53
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Alessandro Bastoni Defender
7.26
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto
Defender77'
6.79
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries Midfielder
6.47
11
Luis Henrique
Luis Henrique
Attacker68'
6.77
7
Piotr Zieliński
Piotr Zieliński Midfielder
6.86
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
7.38
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Midfielder68'
7.28
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
7.12
32
Federico Dimarco
Federico Dimarco Midfielder
6.76
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
7.47
17
Andy Diouf
Andy Diouf
Midfielder82'
7
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
6.52
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Attacker77'
7.2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Zaccagni 
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
85'
85'
Event
Nicolò Barella
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Federico Dimarco
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Pedro
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
84'
82'
Event
Andy Diouf → Marcus Thuram
10th Substitution
Event
Pedro → Toma Bašić
9th Substitution
78'
77'
Event
Ange-Yoan Bonny → Lautaro Martínez
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Carlos Augusto → Alessandro Bastoni
7th Substitution
Event
Boulaye Dia → Mattia Zaccagni 
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Manuel Lazzari → Adam Marusic
6th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan → Petar Sučić
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Luis Henrique → Denzel Dumfries
3rd Substitution
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Gustav Isaksen
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Nicolò Rovella  → Patric 
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mario Gila
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
35'
Event
Lautaro Martínez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
16'
Event
Alessandro Bastoni
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Marcus Thuram
Header / 1st Goal
6'
Event
Yann Bisseck
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Boulaye Dia's header is saved.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Dimarco receives a yellow card.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, also known as Pedrito.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolo Barella receives a yellow card.
82
Update Update
Andy Diouf replaces Marcus Thuram.
81
Attempt Attempt
Piotr Zielinski takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
78
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, known as Pedrito, is substituted off for Toma Basic.
77
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny is on, and Lautaro Javier Martinez is off.
77
Update Update
Carlos Augusto replaces Alessandro Bastoni.
75
Attempt Attempt
Boulaye Dia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari replaces Adam Marusic.
72
Update Update
Boulaye Dia comes on for Mattia Zaccagni.
71
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cancellieri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Luis Henrique Tomaz de Lima takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Update Update
Henrik Mkhitaryan comes on for Petar Sucic.
68
Update Update
Luis Henrique Tomaz de Lima is on, and Denzel Dumfries is off.
66
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri comes on for Gustav Isaksen.
63
Attempt Attempt
Kenneth Taylor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen's right-footed shot is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Piotr Zielinski's left-footed shot is saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Gila receives a yellow card.
35
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
24
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Petar Sucic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Denzel Dumfries takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Barella takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin's left-footed shot is blocked.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alessandro Bastoni receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Adam Marusic puts the score at 0-1.
14
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marcus Thuram scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Federico Dimarco.
12
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Javier Martinez attempted a header but missed the shot.
6
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yann Bisseck receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Marco Guida.

CONCLUSION

Inter's 0-2 triumph over Lazio exemplified their tactical superiority and clinical edge, converting early dominance into a comfortable win. With 58% possession and a halftime lead they never relinquished, the visitors showcased disciplined defending and efficient play. Lazio's 42% share yielded few threats, exposing their struggles against Inter's press. This outcome, marked by a significant deviation favoring the winners, reinforces Inter's standing as the stronger outfit. The clean sheet and controlled second half signal positive momentum, while Lazio must address defensive frailties. Overall, the match highlighted Inter's consistency in delivering results against expected opposition.

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