Lazio vs Inter Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sat, 9 May - 4:00 PM
Serie A
Lazio LAZ
0 Winner 3
Inter INT
Full Time Sat, 9 May 4:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
|
Goal
Henrikh Mkhitaryan - 76'
Petar Sučić - 39'
Lautaro Martínez - 6'
Alessio Romagnoli 59' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Inter secured a convincing 3-0 victory over Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico, extending their strong form in Serie A. The away side took control early, leading 2-0 at halftime through clinical finishing despite Lazio's resistance. Lazio, playing at home, managed only 42% possession compared to Inter's 58%, struggling to create meaningful chances. The turning point came in the second half when Lazio received a red card, distorting the game's structure and allowing Inter to add a third goal unchallenged. Inter's dominance was evident throughout, aligning with their status as the stronger team. Without expected goals data available, the performance underscored Inter's efficiency in converting limited opportunities into a comfortable win. Lazio's defensive lapses and numerical disadvantage sealed their fate in a match that highlighted Inter's tactical superiority and resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match showed minimal structural deviation of 2.7% favoring Inter.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Lazio's red card significantly impacted second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Lazio caused clear distortion in second-half play.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Abisso

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Fontani

1st Assistant

Italy

J. Sacchi

4th Official

Italy

S. Biffi

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.44
Yellow cards / match 3.28
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.17
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
VS
Inter C. Chivu
C. Chivu
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.44
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Udinese Rank: 75 D
Napoli Rank: 86 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 L
Parma Rank: 73 D
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 73 W
Torino Rank: 74 D
Cagliari Rank: 69 W
Como Rank: 84 W
Roma Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lazio
0.32%
Draw
2.37%
Away Inter
97.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.91
91.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lazio
Inter
Power Score
80.91
91.77
League Position
8
1
Global Rank
54
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Inter — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lazio Inter

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Inter

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Inter
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.55
27.84
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.84
26.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lazio -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Inter +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Inter
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lazio ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Inter
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lazio Inter
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lazio Inter
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lazio
Inter
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lazio
vs
Inter
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lazio Inter
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lazio 0.21
Inter 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lazio Inter
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lazio 0.07
Inter 0.00
Lazio
Inter
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LAZ had peak pressure around 74'.
  • INT started the game with stronger pressure.
LAZ Pressure INT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LAZ reached the top pressure at 74' (90.65).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 48 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lazio LAZ Home
48 matches
Inter INT Away
Match Record
12
Wins
26
10
Draws
10
26
Losses
12
Goals
49
Goals Scored
83
83
Goals Conceded
49
-34
Goal Difference
+34

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
A. Marušić
Substitution
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
M. Fuentes
Substitution
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
L. Pellegrini
Italy
3 L. Pellegrini
F. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
N. Rovella
Substitution
Italy
6 N. Rovella
T. Bašić
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
M. Cancellieri
Substitution
Italy
22 M. Cancellieri
T. Noslin
Netherlands
14 T. Noslin
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Substitution
Spain
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Pitch
J. Martínez Riera
Spain
13 J. Martínez Riera
A. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
95 A. Bastoni
F. Acerbi
Italy
15 F. Acerbi
Y. Bisseck
Germany
31 Y. Bisseck
C. Zopalato Neves
Brazil
30 C. Zopalato Neves
H. Mkhitaryan
Armenia
22 H. Mkhitaryan
P. Sučić
Substitution
Croatia
8 P. Sučić
N. Barella
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Barella
A. Diouf
France
17 A. Diouf
L. Martínez
Substitution
Argentina
10 L. Martínez
M. Thuram
Substitution
France
9 M. Thuram

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Federico Fontani
Juan Luca Sacchi
Rosario Abisso
Simone Biffi

Statistics

Possession
LAZ
45%
INT
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 43
42 Possession 58
5 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 6
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 83
1 Successful Headers 4
20 Throwins 11
0 Assists 3
7 Goal Kicks 6
57 Ball Safe 57
7 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
10 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

62 Attacks 68
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

35 Long Passes 18
450 Passes 638
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
404 Successful Passes 593
90 Successful Passes Percentage 93
24 Successful Long Passes 7
7 Key Passes 9

Defensive

6 Tackles 14
25 Duels Won 32
5 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 4

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 1
10 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
3
Luca Pellegrini
Luca Pellegrini Defender
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard
Defender56'
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari
Midfielder77'
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella Midfielder
4
Patric
Patric
Defender56'
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker62'
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Attacker
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen
Attacker56'
Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

13
Josep Martínez
Josep Martínez Goalkeeper
15
Francesco Acerbi
Francesco Acerbi Defender
31
Yann Bisseck
Yann Bisseck Defender
95
Alessandro Bastoni
Alessandro Bastoni Defender
11
Luis Henrique
Luis Henrique
Attacker63'
8
Petar Sučić
Petar Sučić Midfielder
48
Mattia Mosconi
Mattia Mosconi
Attacker80'
17
Andy Diouf
Andy Diouf Midfielder
22
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Henrikh Mkhitaryan Midfielder
23
Nicolò Barella
Nicolò Barella Midfielder
16
Davide Frattesi
Davide Frattesi
Midfielder46'
30
Carlos Augusto
Carlos Augusto Midfielder
9
Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram Attacker
14
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Ange-Yoan Bonny
Attacker46'
10
Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez Attacker
2
Denzel Dumfries
Denzel Dumfries
Defender63'

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Mattia Mosconi → Petar Sučić
10th Substitution
Event
Manuel Lazzari → Adam Marusic
9th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Tijjani Noslin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
63'
Event
Luis Henrique → Alessandro Bastoni
8th Substitution
63'
Event
Denzel Dumfries → Lautaro Martínez
7th Substitution
Event
Boulaye Dia → Pedro
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Alessio Romagnoli
Foul / 1st Redcard
59'
Event
Alessio Romagnoli
Card adjusted
58'
Event
Gustav Isaksen → Matteo Cancellieri
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Patric  → Nicolò Rovella 
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Oliver Provstgaard → Mario Gila
5th Substitution
56'
Event
Luca Pellegrini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
Ange-Yoan Bonny → Marcus Thuram
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Davide Frattesi → Nicolò Barella
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Petar Sučić
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
6'
Event
Lautaro Martínez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
That's all. The game finishes with Lazio 0, Inter Milan 3.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Lazio losing 0-3 to Inter Milan.
89
Update Update
The second half ends with Lazio losing 0-3 to Inter Milan.
87
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Inter Milan receives a yellow card for a foul.
85
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Boulaye Dia from Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mattia Mosconi from Inter Milan shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box but it goes high. Luis Henrique provided the assist.
84
Update Update
Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Inter Milan committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
82
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Davide Frattesi from Inter Milan shot with his right foot from outside the box.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Mattia Mosconi replaces Petar Sucic.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Manuel Lazzari replaces Adam Marusic.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan leads 3-0 after Henrikh Mkhitaryan scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tijjani Noslin of Lazio receives a yellow card.
73
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Luis Henrique concedes.
73
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Boulaye Dia provided the assist.
72
Update Update
Toma Basic from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Davide Frattesi of Inter Milan.
71
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Francesco Acerbi concedes it.
70
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Josep Martínez concedes.
70
Corner Corner
Gustav Isaksen of Lazio makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but Josep Martínez of Inter Milan saves it in the top right corner. The assist comes from Tijjani Noslin.
64
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan is flagged for offside.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Luis Henrique replaces Alessandro Bastoni.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Denzel Dumfries replaces Lautaro Martínez.
62
Corner Corner
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box after a corner.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia replaces Pedro.
61
Corner Corner
Lazio wins a corner after Carlos Augusto concedes it.
61
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Carlos Augusto of Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Lazio's goalkeeper Edoardo Motta, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Lautaro Martínez.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gustav Isaksen's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Luca Pellegrini.
59
Red Card Red Card Important
Alessio Romagnoli from Lazio receives a red card.
58
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessio Romagnoli of Lazio.
57
Attempt Attempt
Toma Basic from Lazio misses a chance with a left-footed shot from over 35 yards.
57
Update Update
Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Patric replaces Nicolò Rovella.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Oliver Provstgaard replaces Mario Gila.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Gustav Isaksen replaces Matteo Cancellieri.
55
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Davide Frattesi from Inter Milan shot with his left foot from the left side of the box.
54
Update Update
Nicolò Rovella from Lazio commits a handball.
52
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Pedro of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Inter Milan's goalkeeper, Josep Martínez, in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Nicolò Rovella.
52
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez of Inter Milan committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Mario Gila of Lazio won a free kick on the right wing.
50
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Yann Bisseck of Inter Milan takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved by Lazio's goalkeeper Edoardo Motta, positioned in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Lautaro Martínez.
50
Corner Corner
Lazio is awarded a corner after Francesco Acerbi concedes it.
48
Update Update
Luca Pellegrini of Lazio committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Yann Bisseck of Inter Milan won a free kick on the right wing.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luca Pellegrini of Lazio receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Lazio trailing Inter Milan 2-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Davide Frattesi replaces Nicolò Barella.
45
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Inter Milan: Ange-Yoan Bonny replaces Marcus Thuram.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lazio 0, Inter Milan 2.
45
Update Update
Andy Diouf of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Toma Basic of Lazio.
45
Update Update
Carlos Augusto fouled an opponent for Inter Milan.
44
Attempt Attempt
Nicolò Barella from Inter Milan misses a chance with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
39
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan lead 2-0 against Lazio. Petar Sucic scores with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the top left corner, assisted by Lautaro Martínez.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Carlos Augusto of Inter Milan.
37
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri of Lazio won a free kick on the right wing.
36
Update Update
Lautaro Martínez from Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Nicolò Rovella from Lazio committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru commits a foul against Lazio.
32
Update Update
Henrikh Mkhitaryan from Inter Milan committed a foul.
32
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Nicolò Barella from Inter Milan misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left from a free kick.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Cancellieri of Lazio.
30
Update Update
Marcus Thuram of Inter Milan won a free kick in the attacking area.
20
Corner Corner
Inter Milan wins a corner after Alessio Romagnoli concedes.
20
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram's shot for Inter Milan from the center of the box is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Nicolò Barella's shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
15
Update Update
Mario Gila from Lazio won a free kick in the attacking area.
15
Update Update
Foul by Marcus Thuram for Inter Milan.
14
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Tijjani Noslin of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Inter Milan's goalkeeper, Josep Martínez, in the center of the goal.
12
Update Update
Pedro from Lazio won a free kick in an attacking position.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Nicolò Barella of Inter Milan.
10
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Thuram from Inter Milan had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went wide.
6
Attempt Attempt
Andy Diouf's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Marcus Thuram.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Inter Milan takes the lead 1-0 against Lazio. Lautaro Martínez scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Marcus Thuram with a header.
3
Update Update
Petar Sucic from Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Tijjani Noslin of Lazio.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Cancellieri of Lazio.
2
Update Update
Alessandro Bastoni of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Francesco Acerbi of Inter Milan won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Tijjani Noslin of Lazio.

CONCLUSION

Inter's 3-0 triumph over Lazio reinforces their position as Serie A frontrunners, showcasing superior possession, finishing, and composure under pressure. The 2-0 halftime lead set the tone, and Lazio's red card in the second half eliminated any comeback hopes, allowing Inter to manage the game effortlessly. With 58% possession and no concessions, Inter exemplified efficiency against a depleted Lazio side holding just 42%. This result, minimally deviant from expectations, highlights Inter's consistency and ability to capitalize on key events like the red card. Lazio must address disciplinary issues and defensive frailties ahead of future fixtures.

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