LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Raiffeisen Arena Sun, 19 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
LASK Linz ASK
1 – 1
Sturm Graz STU
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 5 Championship Round
Sasa Kalajdzic - 68'
Goal
|
Goal
Otar Kiteishvili - 10' (P)

CONTEXT

LASK Linz secured a 1-0 victory over Sturm Graz in a match marked by a second-half turnaround. Trailing 0-1 at halftime, LASK Linz dominated possession with 63% to Sturm Graz's 37% and mounted a comeback to claim the win. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, LASK Linz delivered on that status without any red cards disrupting play. The result featured a significant 49.3% deviation favoring LASK Linz, yet remained aligned with pre-match market assessments where LASK held a 50.7% implied probability of victory. No expected goals data was available, limiting deeper chance quality analysis. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with overall performance, and no second-half tactical adjustments were noted. This outcome underscores LASK Linz's control and resilience against a Sturm Graz side that led early but faded.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz victory exhibited a significant 49.3% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events like adjustments or reds altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Altmann

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Brandner

1st Assistant

L. Katholnig

2nd Assistant

A. Untergasser

4th Official

LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
2.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: W
SK Rapid Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: W
Salzburg Rank: D
Austria Wien Rank: W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 10 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LASK Linz
50.74%
Draw
24.87%
Away Sturm Graz
24.39%

Movement

Changes since opening
LASK Linz
+45.21%
Draw
-66.36%
Sturm Graz
+21.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.5
27.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LASK Linz
Sturm Graz
Power Score
29.5
27.95
League Position
3
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LASK Linz Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.76
15.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.00
49.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LASK Linz +2.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz -2.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LASK Linz Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LASK Linz Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LASK Linz
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LASK Linz Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LASK Linz 0.42
Sturm Graz 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LASK Linz Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LASK Linz 0.03
Sturm Graz 0.01
LASK Linz
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ASK had peak pressure around 51'.
  • STU started the game with stronger pressure.
ASK Pressure STU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ASK reached the top pressure at 51' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LASK Linz ASK Home
46 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
15
Wins
21
10
Draws
10
21
Losses
15
Goals
59
Goals Scored
77
77
Goals Conceded
59
-18
Goal Difference
+18

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:04:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
I. Coulibaly
Substitution
Mali
4 I. Coulibaly
S. Horvath
Austria
30 S. Horvath
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
S. Kalajdzic
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
M. Usor
Substitution
Nigeria
8 M. Usor
S. Adeniran
United States
7 S. Adeniran
Pitch
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Mitchell
Substitution
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Gazibegovic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 J. Gazibegovic
R. Fosso
Switzerland
80 R. Fosso
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Hödl
Substitution
Austria
43 J. Hödl
M. Malone
Substitution
Germany
77 M. Malone
O. Kiteishvili
Georgia
10 O. Kiteishvili
S. Jatta
Norway
20 S. Jatta

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 5 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Raiffeisen Arena
Capacity :
19080
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Walter Altmann
Roland Brandner
Luka Katholnig
Achim Untergasser

Statistics

Possession
ASK
62%
STU
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 2
28 Shots 4
67 Dangerous attacks 31
63 Possession 37
7 Corners 2
19 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

99 Ball Safe 95
1 Injuries 4
22 Goal Attempts 5
2 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0
18 Dribble Attempts 14
7 Successful Dribbles 4
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
2 Goal Kicks 23
17 Throwins 20
0 Penalties 1
2 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

6 Big Chances Missed 1
121 Attacks 70

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 61
432 Passes 262
356 Successful Passes 160
53 Long Passes 67
23 Key Passes 2
32 Successful Long Passes 18
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

1 Saves 4
12 Interceptions 4
17 Tackles 21
60 Duels Won 43

Build-up

38 Total Crosses 8
11 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
6.83
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
7.27
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
6.93
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
7.06
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly Midfielder
6.76
2
George Bello
George Bello
Defender65'
6.81
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
7.02
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
7
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Midfielder
6.94
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
7.02
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
7.19
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang
Attacker86'
6.82
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
6.88
Referee : Walter Altmann

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
7.07
35
Niklas Geyrhofer
Niklas Geyrhofer
Defender49'
6.37
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
7.2
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
6.86
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
6.98
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Midfielder
6.91
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic
Defender80'
6.93
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
6.62
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic
Defender70'
6.72
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Midfielder
6.71
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili Attacker
7.35
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.61
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.75
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
Midfielder70'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christoph Lang → Moses Usor
6th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
Emir Karic → Jusuf Gazibegovic
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Arjan Malic → Jacob Peter Hödl
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili → Maurice Malone
4th Substitution
Event
Sasa Kalajdzic
Header / 1st Goal
68'
Event
George Bello → Ismaila Coulibaly
2nd Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Daniil Khudyakov
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Albert Vallci
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Niklas Geyrhofer → Jeyland Mitchell
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Jacob Peter Hödl
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
8'
Event
Ryan Fosso
Penalty confirmed

CONCLUSION

LASK Linz's 1-0 win over Sturm Graz highlighted their superiority as the stronger team, overturning a halftime deficit through sustained 63% possession dominance. The significant 49.3% deviation in their favor, coupled with market alignment, reflects a result consistent with pre-match evaluations despite lacking xG insights. Efficiency held steady without disruptions from reds or major events, affirming LASK's control. Sturm Graz's early lead evaporated in the second half, underscoring LASK's resilience and tactical execution in securing the points.

LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.