LASK Linz vs Salzburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Raiffeisen Arena Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
LASK Linz ASK
2 Winner 1
Salzburg RBS
Full Time Sun, 10 May 3:00 PM
Round 9 Championship Round
Kasper Jørgensen - 36'
Samuel Adeniran - 33'
Goal
|
Goal
Karim Konaté - 87'

CONTEXT

LASK Linz pulled off a commanding 2-1 victory over Salzburg in a match defined by clinical finishing and resilient defending. The home side surged ahead with two first-half goals, leading 2-0 at halftime despite holding just 31% possession. Salzburg dominated the ball with 69% control but struggled to convert, managing only a consolation goal after the break. LASK's efficiency in attack proved decisive, capitalizing on limited chances while Salzburg's pressure yielded little. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the game to flow naturally. This result underscores LASK's status as the stronger outfit, minimally deviating from expectations in a tightly contested affair. The win highlights their tactical discipline against a possession-heavy opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz recorded a minimal structural deviation of 5.8% from expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable to determine alignment with outcome.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market consensus.
  • xG expectations: No xG figures provided to assess performance against expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to game structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Hameter

Austria
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Borucki

1st Assistant

Austria

M. El Sadany

2nd Assistant

Austria

S. Barmaksiz

4th Official

Austria

League averages

Admiral Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.18
Yellow cards / match 3.42
Red cards / match 0.24
Penalties / match 0.3
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
VS
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
1.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 61 W
Hartberg Rank: 60 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 D
Salzburg Rank: 68 W
Austria Wien Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
SK Rapid Rank: 59 L
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
Austria Wien Rank: 64 W
LASK Linz Rank: 69 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LASK Linz
94.16%
Draw
5.65%
Away Salzburg
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.91
68.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LASK Linz
Salzburg
Power Score
68.91
68.44
League Position
3
3
Global Rank
235
247

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LASK Linz Salzburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.16
18.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.12
40.16
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LASK Linz +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Salzburg -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Salzburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LASK Linz Salzburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LASK Linz Salzburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Salzburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LASK Linz
vs
Salzburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LASK Linz Salzburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LASK Linz 0.38
Salzburg 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LASK Linz Salzburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LASK Linz 0.01
Salzburg 0.07
LASK Linz
Salzburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBS had peak pressure around 19'.
  • RBS started the game with stronger pressure.
ASK Pressure RBS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBS reached the top pressure at 19' (67.79).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LASK Linz ASK Home
47 matches
Salzburg RBS Away
Match Record
8
Wins
27
12
Draws
12
27
Losses
8
Goals
42
Goals Scored
88
88
Goals Conceded
42
-46
Goal Difference
+46

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Substitution
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
G. Bello
United States
2 G. Bello
M. Usor
Substitution
Nigeria
8 M. Usor
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
S. Horvath
Austria
30 S. Horvath
S. Adeniran
Substitution
United States
7 S. Adeniran
S. Kalajdzic
Substitution
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
F. Krätzig
Substitution
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
T. Drexler
Germany
21 T. Drexler
J. Schuster
Austria
44 J. Schuster
S. Lainer
Austria
22 S. Lainer
M. Kjaergaard
Denmark
14 M. Kjaergaard
S. Diabaté
Substitution
Mali
5 S. Diabaté
S. Kitano
Japan
8 S. Kitano
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
K. Onisiwo
Austria
9 K. Onisiwo
D. Redzic
Substitution
Hungary
24 D. Redzic

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Raiffeisen Arena
Capacity :
19080
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Markus Hameter
Alexander Borucki
Mohamed El Sadany
Safak Barmaksiz

Statistics

Possession
ASK
37%
RBS
63%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 1
29 Dangerous attacks 70
31 Possession 69
4 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 21
26 Throwins 24
13 Goal Kicks 4
7 Successful Dribbles 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
1 Hit Woodwork 2
1 Assists 1
8 Goal Attempts 5
72 Ball Safe 81
4 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

58 Attacks 130
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

6 Key Passes 7
170 Successful Passes 451
234 Passes 532
16 Successful Long Passes 16
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
47 Long Passes 35
73 Successful Passes Percentage 85

Defensive

7 Interceptions 9
0 Saves 4
56 Duels Won 44
23 Tackles 18

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 22
1 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

9 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Markus Hameter

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
2
George Bello
George Bello Defender
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Defender
29
Florian Flecker
Florian Flecker
Attacker90'
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Midfielder
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba
Defender90'
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Midfielder
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang
Attacker64'
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Midfielder
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
9
Krystof Danek
Krystof Danek
Midfielder61'
Referee : Markus Hameter

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Defender
43
Enrique Aguilar
Enrique Aguilar
Attacker86'
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Defender
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté Midfielder
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo
Attacker70'
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Midfielder
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard Midfielder
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo Attacker
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Attacker
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté
Attacker70'
24
Damir Redzic
Damir Redzic Attacker
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic
Attacker55'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Modou Kéba Cissé
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Xavier Mbuyamba → Samuel Adeniran
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Florian Flecker → Kasper Jørgensen
7th Substitution
90'
Event
Krystof Danek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
88'
87'
Event
Karim Konaté
Header / 3rd Goal
86'
Event
Enrique Aguilar → Frans Krätzig
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Karim Konaté → Yorbe Vertessen
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Edmund Baidoo → Soumaïla Diabaté
4th Substitution
Event
Christoph Lang → Moses Usor
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Krystof Danek → Sasa Kalajdzic
2nd Substitution
61'
55'
Event
Kerim Alajbegovic → Damir Redzic
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kasper Jørgensen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Samuel Adeniran
Header / 1st Goal
33'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Xavier Mbuyamba is on, and Samuel Oluwabukunmi Adeniran is off.
90
Update Update
Florian Flecker comes on for Kasper Poul Molgaard Jorgensen.
87
Update Update
Karim Konate scores with a header.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Karim Konate scores, making it 2-1.
86
Update Update
Enrique Aguilar comes on for Frans Kratzig.
83
Attempt Attempt
Krystof Danek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
Maurits Kjaergaard takes a left-footed shot but misses.
81
Attempt Attempt
Melayro Bogarde takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
77
Update Update
Andres Andrade's header goes wide.
77
Attempt Attempt
Andres Andrade takes a header shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Edmund Baidoo takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Edmund Baidoo replaces Soumaila Diabate.
70
Update Update
Karim Konate comes on for Yorbe Vertessen.
64
Update Update
Christoph Lang replaces Moses Usor.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Krystof Danek comes on for Sasa Kalajdzic.
57
Attempt Attempt
Kerim Alajbegovic takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
56
Attempt Attempt
Moses Usor's left-footed shot is saved.
55
Update Update
Kerim Alajbegovic replaces Damir Redzic.
49
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Poul Molgaard Jorgensen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Poul Molgaard Jorgensen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
36
Attempt Attempt
Andres Andrade takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
30
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Oluwabukunmi Adeniran attempted a header, but it missed the target.
28
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Modou Cisse takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Moses Usor has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Sascha Horvath takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Yorbe Vertessen attempts a header but misses the shot.
11
Attempt Attempt
Sota Kitano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Damir Redzic takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

LASK Linz's 2-1 triumph over Salzburg cements their dominance, turning modest possession into a perfect halftime lead of 2-0 and a hard-fought win. Despite Salzburg's overwhelming 69% ball control, LASK's sharp finishing and backline solidity shone through, repelling waves of attacks. This outcome reflects minimal deviation and full market alignment, reinforcing LASK as the pre-identified stronger team. The lack of disruptions like red cards ensured a pure test of quality, where efficiency trumped volume. Looking ahead, this performance boosts LASK's momentum, exposing Salzburg's conversion woes in high-stakes encounters.

LASK Linz vs Salzburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.