Las Palmas vs Leganés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de Gran Canaria Fri, 17 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Las Palmas LPA
2 Winner 0
Leganés LEG
Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Manu Fuster - 68'
Estanis Pedrola - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Las Palmas claimed a 2-0 home win against Leganés, establishing a 1-0 lead by halftime and adding a second goal after the break. Despite Leganés controlling 55% possession compared to Las Palmas' 45%, the hosts converted their opportunities more effectively, maintaining defensive solidity throughout. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing a straightforward contest where Las Palmas, deemed the stronger side pre-match, delivered on expectations. The result reflects their clinical finishing against a possession-dominant but toothless Leganés attack. Pre-match projections favored Las Palmas at 55.7% probability, with the outcome showing a significant 44.3% deviation in their favor, though market alignment held true. Efficiency remained in line with anticipated levels, underscoring a disciplined performance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Las Palmas posted a significant 44.3% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout elements influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Ais Reig

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Cantón Vitoria

1st Assistant

R. Esteve Valenzuela

2nd Assistant

J. Manrique Antequera

4th Official

Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
VS
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: L
Huesca Rank: W
Granada Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: L
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
Albacete Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: W
Almería Rank: L
Real Zaragoza Rank: D
Málaga Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: W
Real Valladolid Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Las Palmas
55.68%
Draw
24.63%
Away Leganés
19.69%

Movement

Changes since opening
Las Palmas
-42.16%
Draw
+22.71%
Leganés
+19.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.77
24.56
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Las Palmas
Leganés
Power Score
25.77
24.56
League Position
4
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Las Palmas Leganés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Las Palmas

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.33
24.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.18
30.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Las Palmas +0.61 Efficiency Index
vs
Leganés -0.61 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Leganés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Las Palmas ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Las Palmas Leganés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Las Palmas Leganés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Las Palmas
Leganés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Las Palmas
vs
Leganés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Las Palmas Leganés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Las Palmas 0.36
Leganés 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Las Palmas Leganés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Las Palmas 0.00
Leganés 0.06
Las Palmas
Leganés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEG had peak pressure around 10'.
  • LEG started the game with stronger pressure.
LPA Pressure LEG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEG reached the top pressure at 10' (64.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Las Palmas LPA Home
15 matches
Leganés LEG Away
Match Record
5
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
5
Goals
13
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
13
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:03:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Horkaš
Croatia
1 D. Horkaš
M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
S. Barcia Laranxeira
Spain
6 S. Barcia Laranxeira
M. Marmol Medina
Spain
3 M. Marmol Medina
E. Clemente Maza
Spain
5 E. Clemente Maza
K. Rodríguez Concepción
Spain
20 K. Rodríguez Concepción
L. Amatucci
Italy
16 L. Amatucci
P. García Mejías
Substitution
Spain
22 P. García Mejías
M. Fuster Lázaro
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
E. Pedrola Fortuny
Substitution
Spain
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz
Pitch
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
N. García García
Spain
17 N. García García
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
I. Miquel i Pons
Substitution
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Leiva Calvo
Substitution
36 M. Leiva Calvo
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
C. Guirao Mora
Spain
26 C. Guirao Mora
J. Díaz Espósito
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
S. Cisse
Substitution
Guinea
8 S. Cisse
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
A. Millán Iranzo
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Millán Iranzo

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Capacity :
32392
Attendance :
16128
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Cantón Vitoria
Ricard Esteve Valenzuela
Juan Antonio Manrique Antequera
Saúl Ais Reig

Statistics

Possession
LPA
46%
LEG
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 7
33 Dangerous attacks 46
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

14 Throwins 19
14 Dribble Attempts 19
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
6 Goal Kicks 5
7 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
86 Ball Safe 81
8 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
80 Attacks 95

Possession

34 Long Passes 60
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
330 Successful Passes 409
83 Successful Passes Percentage 86
397 Passes 478
17 Successful Long Passes 30
7 Key Passes 7

Defensive

41 Duels Won 47
1 Saves 3
18 Tackles 13
6 Interceptions 13

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 18
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park Defender
6.85
8
Iván Gil
Iván Gil
Midfielder73'
6.74
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Defender
7.04
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Defender
7.03
6
Sergio Barcia
Sergio Barcia Defender
7.05
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Midfielder
7.18
15
Juanma Herzog
Juanma Herzog
Defender87'
6.7
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Midfielder
6.99
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Midfielder
6.75
22
Ale García
Ale García Midfielder
6.84
24
Pejiño
Pejiño
Attacker72'
6.77
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Midfielder
6.87
17
Viti Rozada
Viti Rozada
Midfielder59'
6.67
10
Jesé
Jesé Attacker
6.91
49
Iker Bravo
Iker Bravo
Attacker72'
6.61
Referee : Saúl Ais Reig

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
7
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
6.83
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
6.78
16
Gonzalo Melero
Gonzalo Melero
Midfielder69'
6.67
17
Naim García
Naim García Defender
6.79
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo Defender
6.6
6
Lalo Aguilar
Lalo Aguilar
Defender61'
6.88
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé Midfielder
6.96
20
Óscar Plano
Óscar Plano
Attacker61'
6.85
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
7
14
Roberto López
Roberto López
Midfielder84'
6.77
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
6.85
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
6.88
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao Midfielder
6.57
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán Attacker
6.73
19
Diego García
Diego García
Attacker84'
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Enrique Clemente
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Juanma Herzog → Manu Fuster
10th Substitution
87'
84'
Event
Roberto López → Juan Cruz
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Diego García → Álex Millán
8th Substitution
Event
Sergio Barcia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Iván Gil → Marvin Park
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Iker Bravo → Jesé
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Pejiño → Ale García
6th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Gonzalo Melero → Ignasi Miquel
4th Substitution
Event
Manu Fuster
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
61'
Event
Óscar Plano → Seydouba Cissé
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Lalo Aguilar → Marcos Leiva Calvo
2nd Substitution
Event
Viti Rozada → Estanis Pedrola
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
Event
Manu Fuster
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
34'
Event
Estanis Pedrola
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
12'
Event
Duk
Penalty cancelled

CONCLUSION

Las Palmas' 2-0 triumph over Leganés validated their status as the stronger team, overcoming inferior possession through superior chance conversion and defensive resolve. The significant deviation highlights their overperformance relative to projections, while market alignment confirms predictive accuracy. With efficiency in line and no disruptive events like red cards, the match unfolded predictably for the hosts. Leganés' possession edge failed to yield goals, exposing finishing deficiencies. This result bolsters Las Palmas' standing, demonstrating control in a low-scoring affair dominated structurally despite territorial concessions.

Las Palmas vs Leganés preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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