La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Tivoli Sat, 9 May - 2:00 PM
Pro League
La Louvière RAAL
4 Winner 1
Cercle Brugge CBR
Full Time Sat, 9 May 2:00 PM
Round 6 Relegation Round
Jordi Liongola - 76' (P)
Pape Moussa Fall - 69', 51'
Wagane Faye - 55'
Goal
|
Goal
Oumar Diakité - 34'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. La Louvière 4–1 Cercle Brugge. The result saw La Louvière take the points. La Louvière showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 45%–55%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: La Louvière's 4-1 win exhibited a significant structural deviation of 57.5%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout tie events impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Van Damme

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Jans

1st Assistant

Belgium

J. Vermeire

2nd Assistant

Belgium

T. De Keyzer

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.17
Yellow cards / match 3.22
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.34
La Louvière F. Taquin
F. Taquin
VS
Cercle Brugge L. Friis
L. Friis
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: 60 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 66 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 68 L
Dender Rank: 61 L
Genk Rank: 76 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 67 L
Dender Rank: 60 W
Dender Rank: 61 W
La Louvière Rank: 65 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 69 D
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home La Louvière
42.45%
Draw
26.08%
Away Cercle Brugge
31.47%

Movement

Changes since opening
La Louvière
-55.15%
Draw
+24.17%
Cercle Brugge
+30.98%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.59
67.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
Power Score
55.59
67.81
League Position
14
15
Global Rank
341
259

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
La Louvière — Opponent-weighted form score
Cercle Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) La Louvière Cercle Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

La Louvière

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cercle Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.44
26.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.91
31.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
La Louvière +0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Cercle Brugge -0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cercle Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
La Louvière
vs
Cercle Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
La Louvière 0.57
Cercle Brugge 0.36
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
La Louvière Cercle Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
La Louvière 0.03
Cercle Brugge 0.17
La Louvière
Cercle Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CBR had peak pressure around 95'.
  • CBR started the game with stronger pressure.
RAAL Pressure CBR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CBR reached the top pressure at 95' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

La Louvière RAAL Home
5 matches
Cercle Brugge CBR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Peano
Argentina
21 M. Peano
W. Faye
Substitution
Senegal
4 W. Faye
Y. Okou
France
99 Y. Okou
D. Lamego
France
25 D. Lamego
S. Lahssaini
Substitution
Belgium
15 S. Lahssaini
J. Liongola
Burundi
11 J. Liongola
S. Joel Ito
Substitution
Belgium
23 S. Joel Ito
M. Ashimeru
Substitution
Ghana
18 M. Ashimeru
T. Lutonda
Belgium
5 T. Lutonda
J. Afriyie
22 J. Afriyie
P. Fall
Substitution
Senegal
7 P. Fall
Pitch
B. Langenbick
Belgium
84 B. Langenbick
R. Caicedo
Substitution
33 R. Caicedo
G. Kondo
France
24 G. Kondo
E. Kakou
Substitution
5 E. Kakou
V. Konaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
12 V. Konaté
P. Gerkens
Belgium
18 P. Gerkens
M. Diaby
Guinea
19 M. Diaby
I. Diakité
Guinea
2 I. Diakité
H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
Substitution
Mexico
23 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
D. Vanzeir
Substitution
Belgium
13 D. Vanzeir
O. Diakité
Ivory Coast
10 O. Diakité

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 6 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Stade du Tivoli
Capacity :
12500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Van Damme
Lennert Jans
J. Vermeire
Tim De Keyzer

Statistics

Possession
RAAL
47%
CBR
53%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 3
23 Dangerous attacks 36
45 Possession 55
6 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 25
24 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
17 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Goal Kicks 5
4 Successful Dribbles 7
3 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 5
77 Ball Safe 71
2 Substitutions 3
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

62 Attacks 77
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
53 Long Passes 41
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
248 Successful Passes 316
310 Passes 385
27 Successful Long Passes 20
10 Key Passes 9

Defensive

55 Duels Won 47
26 Tackles 24
8 Interceptions 2
5 Saves 2

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 17
8 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Van Damme

Starting XI ▼

21
Marcos Peano
Marcos Peano Goalkeeper
4
Wagane Faye
Wagane Faye Defender
91
Soumaela Traore
Soumaela Traore
Defender87'
25
Djibril Lamego
Djibril Lamego Defender
99
Yllan Okou
Yllan Okou Defender
5
Thierry Lutonda
Thierry Lutonda Midfielder
11
Jordi Liongola
Jordi Liongola Midfielder
15
Sami Lahssaini
Sami Lahssaini Midfielder
6
Alexis Beka Beka
Alexis Beka Beka
Midfielder80'
18
Majeed Ashimeru
Majeed Ashimeru Midfielder
28
Bryan Soumaré
Bryan Soumaré
Midfielder46'
23
Joël Ito
Joël Ito Midfielder
8
Samuel Gueulette
Samuel Gueulette
Midfielder46'
7
Pape Moussa Fall
Pape Moussa Fall Attacker
2
13
Maxence Maisonneuve
Maxence Maisonneuve
Defender90'
22
Jerry Afriyie
Jerry Afriyie Attacker
Referee : Kevin Van Damme

Starting XI ▼

84
Bas Langenbick
Bas Langenbick Goalkeeper
5
Emmanuel Kakou
Emmanuel Kakou Defender
15
Gary Magnée
Gary Magnée
Defender60'
24
Geoffrey Kondo
Geoffrey Kondo Defender
33
Royer Caicedo
Royer Caicedo Defender
66
Christiaan Ravych
Christiaan Ravych
Defender60'
2
Ibrahim Diakité
Ibrahim Diakité Midfielder
12
Valy Konaté
Valy Konaté Midfielder
20
Nazinho
Nazinho
Defender60'
18
Pieter Gerkens
Pieter Gerkens Midfielder
19
Ibrahima Diaby
Ibrahima Diaby Midfielder
10
Oumar Diakité
Oumar Diakité Attacker
13
Dante Vanzeir
Dante Vanzeir Attacker
17
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Oluwaseun Adewumi
Attacker70'
23
Heriberto Jurado
Heriberto Jurado Attacker
41
Krys Kouassi
Krys Kouassi
Attacker78'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maxence Maisonneuve → Pape Moussa Fall
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Soumaela Traore → Wagane Faye
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Alexis Beka Beka → Sami Lahssaini
8th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Krys Kouassi → Heriberto Jurado
7th Substitution
Event
Jordi Liongola
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
76'
Event
Jordi Liongola
Penalty awarded
74'
70'
Event
Oluwaseun Adewumi → Dante Vanzeir
6th Substitution
Event
Pape Moussa Fall
Header / 4th Goal
69'
64'
Event
Gary Magnée
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Nazinho → Valy Konaté
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Christiaan Ravych → Royer Caicedo
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Gary Magnée → Emmanuel Kakou
3rd Substitution
Event
Wagane Faye
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
56'
56'
Event
Heriberto Jurado
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Wagane Faye
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
Event
Pape Moussa Fall
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Bryan Soumaré → Majeed Ashimeru
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Samuel Gueulette → Joël Ito
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Oumar Diakité
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Maxence Maisonneuve comes on for Pape Moussa Fall.
89
Attempt Attempt
Oluwaseun Adewumi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Oluwaseun Adewumi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Update Update
Soumaela Traore replaces Wagane Faye.
84
Attempt Attempt
Oluwaseun Adewumi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Alexis Beka Beka comes on for Sami Lahssaini.
78
Update Update
Krys Kouassi replaces Heriberto Jurado.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jordi Liongola takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
70
Update Update
Oluwaseun Adewumi comes on for Dante Vanzeir.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pape Moussa Fall scores, making it 3-1, assisted by Jordi Liongola.
69
Update Update
Pape Moussa Fall scores with a header.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gary Magnee receives a yellow card.
60
Update Update
Flavio Nazinho comes on for Valy.
60
Update Update
Christiaan Ravych comes on for Royer Caicedo.
60
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Soumare takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Substitution Substitution
Gary Magnee is substituted for Emmanuel Kakou.
59
Attempt Attempt
Jerry Afriyie takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Heriberto Jurado receives a yellow card.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wagane Faye receives a yellow card.
55
Attempt Attempt
Wagane Faye takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pape Moussa Fall scores, making it 1-1.
51
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Bryan Soumare comes on for Majeed Ashimeru.
46
Update Update
Bryan Soumare replaces Majeed Ashimeru.
44
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Kakou attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Diakite takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Pieter Gerkens takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Update Update
Wagane Faye's header goes wide.
40
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Heriberto Jurado takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Oumar Diakite scores with a left-footed shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Pape Moussa Fall takes a header shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Majeed Ashimeru takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
Attempt Attempt
Sami Lahssaini's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Royer Caicedo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Royer Caicedo's header is saved.
23
Attempt Attempt
Dante Vanzeir's header is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Jerry Afriyie takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Dante Vanzeir takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Geoffrey Kondo takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

La Louvière's 4-1 triumph over Cercle Brugge underscores their second-half dominance, erasing a halftime deficit with ruthless efficiency. Trailing 0-1 despite Cercle Brugge's superior possession, the home team mounted a comeback fueled by sharp attacking play and solid defending. This upset, against the stronger-rated visitors, demonstrates resilience and tactical adaptability. With no red cards or major disruptions, the result purely reflects on-field execution. La Louvière's victory signals strong form, while Cercle Brugge must address their inability to sustain leads.

La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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