Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion SK Horní Mecholupy Fri, 8 May - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
1 Winner 0
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Fri, 8 May 10:00 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
Assane Seck - 32'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih claimed a hard-fought 1-0 home victory against Karpaty in the Ukrainian Premier League. The decisive goal came in the first half, establishing a 1-0 lead at halftime that the hosts protected stoutly. Despite enjoying just 44% possession to Karpaty's 56%, Kryvbas showcased superior organization and ruthlessness. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, they delivered a result marking a significant 71% structural deviation from expectations, where Karpaty held a slight edge in anticipation. No red cards disrupted play, and the second half saw no major tactical shifts. Karpaty pressed but lacked cutting edge, allowing Kryvbas to secure three valuable points through discipline and efficiency.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's 1-0 win exhibited a significant 71% structural deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to absent xG data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available xG statistics.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion to game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Derevinskyi

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Myronov

1st Assistant

Ukraine

H. Svitlana

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

M. Kozyryatskiy

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.11
Yellow cards / match 2.89
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.23
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih P. van Leeuwen
P. van Leeuwen
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 33 D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 65 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 W
Kudrivka Rank: 41 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 47 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
29.04%
Draw
26.49%
Away Karpaty
44.46%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
-65.26%
Draw
+21.43%
Karpaty
+43.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.77
54.34
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
Power Score
56.77
54.34
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
590
669

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.80
30.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.18
30.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
vs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.22
Karpaty 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.00
Karpaty 0.02
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Pressure Karpaty Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih reached the top pressure at 13' (68.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Home
3 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:00:50+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Kemkin
Ukraine
12 O. Kemkin
J. Jurčec
Croatia
2 J. Jurčec
V. Volodymyr
Ukraine
4 V. Volodymyr
J. Jones
Panama
15 J. Jones
A. Bekavac
Croatia
5 A. Bekavac
M. Zaderaka
Ukraine
94 M. Zaderaka
A. Araujo Araque
Venezuela
6 A. Araujo Araque
Y. Shevchenko
8 Y. Shevchenko
B. Lin
Substitution
Israel
18 B. Lin
A. Seck
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Seck
G. Mendoza Barrios
Substitution
Venezuela
7 G. Mendoza Barrios
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
O. Sych
Substitution
Ukraine
77 O. Sych
A. Shakh
Substitution
Ukraine
33 A. Shakh
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
Y. Kostenko
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
Y. Karabin
Substitution
Ukraine
19 Y. Karabin
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion SK Horní Mecholupy
Capacity :
1000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Oleksiy Derevinskyi
Oleksiy Myronov
Hrushko Svitlana
Maksim Kozyryatskiy

Statistics

Possession
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
45%
Karpaty
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
11 Shots 13
51 Dangerous attacks 78
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

95 Attacks 107

Defensive

6 Saves 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksandr Kemkin
Oleksandr Kemkin Goalkeeper
2
Jan Jurcec
Jan Jurcec Defender
4
Volodymyr Vilivald
Volodymyr Vilivald Defender
5
Ante Bekavac
Ante Bekavac Defender
15
Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones Defender
6
Andrusw Araujo
Andrusw Araujo Midfielder
7
Gleiker Mendoza
Gleiker Mendoza Midfielder
16
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges
Defender89'
8
Yaroslav Shevchenko
Yaroslav Shevchenko Midfielder
14
Assane Seck
Assane Seck Midfielder
24
Volodymyr Mulyk
Volodymyr Mulyk
Attacker68'
18
Bar Lin
Bar Lin Midfielder
10
Giovany Herbert
Giovany Herbert
Attacker68'
94
Maksym Zaderaka
Maksym Zaderaka Midfielder
Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych Defender
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender60'
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin Midfielder
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
35
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando
Midfielder16'
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh Midfielder
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder60'
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oleksandr Kemkin
5th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Vitaliy Kholod
4th Yellowcard
Event
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges → Gleiker Mendoza
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Gleiker Mendoza
6th Yellowcard
89'
80'
Event
Eriki → Edson Fernando
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Yaroslav Karabin
7th Substitution
Event
Giovany Herbert → Bar Lin
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Volodymyr Mulyk → Assane Seck
5th Substitution
68'
60'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko → Oleksiy Sych
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Artur Shakh
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Artur Shakh
3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Joseph Jones
2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Assane Seck
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
30'
Event
Edson Fernando
1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
Edson Fernando → Marko Sapuga
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Oleksandr Kemkin.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gleiker Mendoza receives a yellow card.
89
Update Update
Thiago Borges comes on for Gleiker Mendoza.
80
Update Update
On Bento, off Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
80
Update Update
On comes Bento, off goes Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
68
Update Update
Volodymyr Mulyk comes on for Assane Seck.
60
Update Update
Denys Miroshnichenko is on, and Oleksii Sych is off.
60
Update Update
Valentyn Rubchynskyi replaces Artur Shakh.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Assane Seck scores to make it 1-0.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
16
Update Update
Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes is on, and Marko Sapuha is off.

CONCLUSION

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's 1-0 triumph over Karpaty highlighted their tactical discipline and ability to capitalize on limited chances. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they weathered Karpaty's possession advantage without conceding. As the pre-designated stronger side, this win defied expectations significantly, reinforcing their defensive resilience. Karpaty dominated the ball but faltered in conversion, exposing finishing frailties. The clean sheet and three points propel Kryvbas forward, while Karpaty must sharpen their attack. A gritty, low-scoring battle epitomized by opportunism over dominance.

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Karpaty preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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