Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Samara Arena Fri, 1 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
2 Winner 1
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
Full Time Fri, 1 May 2:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Kirill Pechenin - 77'
Fernando Costanza - 13' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Manfred Ugalde - 64'

CONTEXT

Krylya Sovetov pulled off a 2-1 home win against Spartak Moskva, the stronger team, despite holding just 27% possession to Spartak's 73%. Krylya took a 1-0 lead at halftime and added a second-half goal to secure victory. Spartak's dominance in ball control did not yield sufficient scoring chances, while Krylya capitalized efficiently on their limited opportunities. This result marks a significant structural deviation of 100% in favor of Krylya Sovetov. No red cards were shown, and no second-half tactical adjustments were noted. Efficiency metrics remained in line with expectations. Without xG data, analysis relies on possession and scoreline, highlighting Krylya's defensive resilience and clinical finishing against Spartak's pressure. The underdogs' performance defied the expected hierarchy, turning low possession into a full three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krylya Sovetov produced a significant 100% deviation by defeating the stronger Spartak Moskva 2-1.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No red cards or adjustments impacted the 2-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards caused no distortion in match structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Karasev

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Lunev

1st Assistant

A. Ermilov

2nd Assistant

M. Cheremnykh

4th Official

Krylya Sovetov S. Bulatov
S. Bulatov
VS
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 W
Sochi Rank: 51 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 63 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Krasnodar Rank: 76 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 W
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 W
Orenburg Rank: 54 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 5 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krylya Sovetov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Spartak Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.79
71.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krylya Sovetov
Spartak Moskva
Power Score
57.79
71.72
League Position
10
4
Global Rank
551
158

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krylya Sovetov Spartak Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.33
30.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.21
18.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krylya Sovetov -1.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Spartak Moskva +1.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Spartak Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spartak Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krylya Sovetov Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Spartak Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Spartak Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Krylya Sovetov
vs
Spartak Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krylya Sovetov Spartak Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krylya Sovetov 0.21
Spartak Moskva 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Spartak Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krylya Sovetov 0.01
Spartak Moskva 0.11
Krylya Sovetov
Spartak Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Spartak Moskva had peak pressure around 96'.
  • Krylya Sovetov started the game with stronger pressure.
Krylya Sovetov Pressure Spartak Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Spartak Moskva reached the top pressure at 96' (79.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Home
37 matches
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Away
Match Record
6
Wins
26
5
Draws
5
26
Losses
6
Goals
31
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
31
-32
Goal Difference
+32

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:02:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 S. Pesyakov
F. Peixoto Costanza
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
N. Chernov
Russia
23 N. Chernov
S. Bozhin
Substitution
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
S. Babkin
Russia
6 S. Babkin
M. Vityugov
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
N. Rasskazov
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
M. Banjac
Substitution
Serbia
14 M. Banjac
I. Oleynikov
Substitution
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov
A. Rahmanović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
R. Zobnin
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
C. Wooh
Substitution
France
3 C. Wooh
D. Denisov
Russia
97 D. Denisov
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
P. Solari
Argentina
7 P. Solari
M. Ugalde
Substitution
Costa Rica
9 M. Ugalde

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Samara Arena
Capacity :
44918
Attendance :
20519
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Aleksey Ermilov
Mikhail Cheremnykh

Statistics

Possession
Krylya Sovetov
32%
Spartak Moskva
68%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 12
19 Dangerous attacks 81
27 Possession 73
0 Corners 10
17 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Dribble Attempts 21
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
11 Throwins 40
13 Goal Kicks 3
2 Penalties 0
9 Successful Headers 9
1 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1
64 Ball Safe 80
5 Substitutions 3
6 Injuries 1
4 Goal Attempts 12

Attacking

51 Attacks 122
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

206 Passes 515
62 Long Passes 44
20 Successful Long Passes 23
130 Successful Passes 431
63 Successful Passes Percentage 84
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

45 Duels Won 36
12 Interceptions 8
20 Tackles 6
5 Saves 1

Build-up

1 Total Crosses 43
1 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

12 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
6.95
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Defender
6.69
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Defender
6.85
23
Nikita Chernov
Nikita Chernov Defender
6.75
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
6.9
3
T. Galdames
T. Galdames
Defender75'
6.31
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
6.65
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
6.65
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac Midfielder
6.7
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov
Midfielder58'
6.86
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
6.49
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Midfielder
6.86
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov
Midfielder71'
6.4
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
6.76
70
Artem Shumanskiy
Artem Shumanskiy
Attacker72'
6.67
Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
6.69
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
6.8
35
Christopher Martins
Christopher Martins
Midfielder83'
6.73
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
6.79
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Defender
6.75
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
6.8
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7.53
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari Midfielder
6.97
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
6.96
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
6.95
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Midfielder
6.88
27
Igor Dmitriev
Igor Dmitriev
Midfielder57'
6.85
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde Attacker
6.93
11
Levi García
Levi García
Attacker83'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Pablo Solari
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Levi García → Manfred Ugalde
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Christopher Martins → Christopher Wooh
8th Substitution
Event
Kirill Pechenin
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
T. Galdames → Sergey Bozhin
5th Substitution
75'
Event
D. Oroz → I. Akhmetov
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Artem Shumanskiy → A. Rahmanović
4th Substitution
72'
Event
K. Stolbov → I. Oleynikov
3rd Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Ruslan Litvinov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
M. Vityugov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
66'
64'
Event
Manfred Ugalde
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
I. Akhmetov → Mihajlo Banjac
2nd Substitution
58'
57'
Event
Igor Dmitriev → Gedson Fernandes
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Fernando Costanza
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nail Umyarov's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nail Umyarov's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ezequiel Barco's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nail Umyarov's header is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Levi Garcia attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Pechenin scores with a left-footed shot.
83
Update Update
Christopher Martins Pereira comes on for Christopher Wooh.
83
Update Update
Levi Garcia is on, and Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce is off.
77
Attempt Attempt
Igor Dmitriev's right-footed shot is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Kirill Pechenin scores with a left-footed shot.
77
Attempt Attempt
Daniil Denisov's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
Update Update
Thomas Ignacio Galdames Millan comes on for Sergey Bozhin.
75
Update Update
Dominik Oroz comes on for Ilzat Akhmetov.
72
Update Update
Artem Shumanskiy is on, and Amar Rahmanovic is off.
71
Update Update
Kirill Stolbov comes on for Ivan Oleynikov.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maksim Vityugov receives a yellow card.
64
Attempt Attempt
Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
58
Update Update
Ilzat Akhmetov comes on for Mihajlo Banjac.
57
Update Update
Igor Dmitriev comes on for Gedson Carvalho Fernandes.
55
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari's left-footed shot is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari's left-footed shot is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Gedson Carvalho Fernandes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Manfred Alonso Ugalde Arce attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari's right-footed shot is saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Solari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ruslan Litvinov takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
23
Attempt Attempt
Nail Umyarov takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Amar Rahmanovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Update Update
Goal! Fernando Peixoto scores from the penalty spot to make it 1-0.
13
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Peixoto Costanza scores with a right-footed shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oleynikov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Krylya Sovetov exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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