Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Samara Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
2 Winner 0
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
A. Rahmanović - 53'
I. Oleynikov - 31'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Krylya Sovetov pulled off a stunning 2-0 victory over stronger side Lokomotiv Moskva at home, defying expectations in the Russian Premier League. The hosts took a 1-0 lead into halftime thanks to clinical finishing, then added a second goal in the second half to seal the win. Despite Lokomotiv dominating possession with 59% and creating more chances, they failed to breach the Krylya defense, which stood resolute. This result marks a significant deviation from pre-match structural assessments favoring Lokomotiv. Krylya capitalized on limited opportunities, showcasing sharp efficiency, while Lokomotiv's profligacy proved costly. No red cards or major disruptions altered the flow, allowing Krylya to maintain control after the break. The underdogs' tactical discipline and goalkeeper heroics turned the tide, handing Lokomotiv a rare blank sheet loss.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krylya Sovetov exhibited a significant 100% structural deviation as the winners.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final outcome aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events notably impacted the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Levnikov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Ermakov

1st Assistant

A. Vereteshkin

2nd Assistant

D. Kashirin

4th Official

Krylya Sovetov S. Bulatov
S. Bulatov
VS
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
0.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: L
CSKA Moskva Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: D
Orenburg Rank: W
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Akron Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 13 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krylya Sovetov
0%
Draw
0%
Away Lokomotiv Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.58
25.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krylya Sovetov
Lokomotiv Moskva
Power Score
14.58
25.84
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krylya Sovetov Lokomotiv Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.80
32.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.29
32.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krylya Sovetov +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Lokomotiv Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krylya Sovetov Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Lokomotiv Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Krylya Sovetov
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krylya Sovetov Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krylya Sovetov 0.41
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krylya Sovetov 0.00
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.07
Krylya Sovetov
Lokomotiv Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Krylya Sovetov had peak pressure around 32'.
  • Krylya Sovetov started the game with stronger pressure.
Krylya Sovetov Pressure Lokomotiv Moskva Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Krylya Sovetov reached the top pressure at 32' (79.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Home
37 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record
6
Wins
18
13
Draws
13
18
Losses
6
Goals
33
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
33
-18
Goal Difference
+18

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:03:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 S. Pesyakov
A. Oroz
Substitution
Croatia
5 A. Oroz
N. Chernov
Russia
23 N. Chernov
S. Bozhin
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
M. Vityugov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
N. Rasskazov
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
M. Banjac
Substitution
Serbia
14 M. Banjac
F. Peixoto Costanza
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
A. Rahmanović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović
I. Oleynikov
Substitution
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
Lucas Fasson
Substitution
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
23 C. Montes Castro
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
A. Karpukas
Substitution
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
D. Prutsev
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
D. Chevardin
Substitution
Russia
74 D. Chevardin
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
D. Vorobyev
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Samara Arena
Capacity :
44918
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kirill Levnikov
Dmitri Ermakov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Danil Kashirin

Statistics

Possession
Krylya Sovetov
44%
Lokomotiv Moskva
56%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 8
29 Dangerous attacks 61
41 Possession 59
3 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

13 Goal Kicks 7
18 Throwins 18
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
7 Successful Headers 13
6 Successful Dribbles 3
9 Dribble Attempts 5
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 15
1 Penalties 0
90 Ball Safe 70
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

75 Attacks 94
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

319 Passes 445
18 Successful Long Passes 38
47 Long Passes 60
242 Successful Passes 366
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 63
76 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

11 Interceptions 8
11 Tackles 8
33 Duels Won 33
6 Saves 5

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 27
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
6.9
5
D. Oroz
D. Oroz Defender
6.62
26
Jimmy Marín
Jimmy Marín
Midfielder61'
6.6
23
Nikita Chernov
Nikita Chernov Defender
6.72
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
6.87
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Midfielder
6.69
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
6.64
18
I. Lepskiy
I. Lepskiy
Defender86'
6.64
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac Midfielder
6.69
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov
Midfielder61'
6.88
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
6.49
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Midfielder
6.84
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
6.72
70
Artem Shumanskiy
Artem Shumanskiy
Attacker73'
6.67
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Attacker
6.82
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov
Midfielder86'
6.41
Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
6.87
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
6.89
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder71'
6.63
23
César Montes
César Montes Defender
7.1
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
6.87
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
6.73
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
6.77
9
Sergey Pinyaev
Sergey Pinyaev
Midfielder46'
6.66
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
6.28
74
Daniil Chevardin
Daniil Chevardin Midfielder
6.44
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder46'
6.58
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
7.72
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
6.92
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker57'
6.89
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
7.15

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
N. Rasskazov
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Kirill Pechenin
GoalkeeperSave
90+2'
Event
I. Lepskiy → M. Vityugov
8th Substitution
86'
Event
K. Stolbov → I. Oleynikov
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Artem Shumanskiy
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Artem Shumanskiy → A. Rahmanović
7th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Lucas Vera → Lucas Fasson
6th Substitution
Event
I. Akhmetov → Mihajlo Banjac
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Jimmy Marín → D. Oroz
5th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
César Montes
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
57'
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko → Artem Karpukas
3rd Substitution
Event
A. Rahmanović
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
51'
Event
Alexander Silyanov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Sergey Pinyaev → Zelimkhan Bakaev
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Daniil Chevardin
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Daniil Chevardin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Fernando Costanza
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
I. Oleynikov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
17'
Event
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Krylya Sovetov's 2-0 triumph over Lokomotiv Moskva underscores the value of defensive solidity and opportunistic attacking in modern football. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they absorbed pressure from the visitors' 59% possession and struck decisively again. This significant deviation highlights how underdogs can exploit inefficiencies, as Lokomotiv wasted superior territory. With no red cards or tactical shifts disrupting play, Krylya's disciplined approach prevailed. The result boosts their confidence while exposing Lokomotiv's conversion issues, setting up intriguing future clashes in the league.

Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moskva preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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