Krylya Sovetov vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Samara Arena Sat, 11 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premier League Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 
2 – 2
Akhmat Grozny AKH Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 24 · Regular Season
Nikita Chernov - 70'
A. Rahmanović - 4'
|
Egas Cacintura - 40' (P)
Georgiy Melkadze - 10'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion Promotion Playoffs Relegation
Data last checked: May 15
CONTEXT
The match between Krylya Sovetov and Akhmat Grozny is finished, with Krylya Sovetov winning 2-0 at full time. Pre-match assessments identified Akhmat Grozny as the stronger team, yet the result delivered a significant deviation in favor of Krylya Sovetov. This outcome diverged sharply from pre-match expectations, as the home side secured a convincing victory despite not being tipped to dominate. Krylya Sovetov also held a clear territorial edge, recording 61 percent possession to Akhmat Grozny’s 39 percent, though expected goals data was unavailable for further context. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall pattern of play, and no red cards were issued to either side to alter the balance. While the final score did not align with the pre-match projection that favored the visitors, it reflected a determined second-half adjustment by Krylya Sovetov that proved decisive.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Krylya Sovetov showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
- Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
- xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
- Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
- xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
- Event impact: No major event distortion.
- Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Match referee
Y. Bobrovskiy
• 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 
0.12
0.12 Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0
Other match officials
K. Bolshakov
2nd Assistant
A. Lapatukhin
4th Official
K. Bolshakov
1st Assistant
S. Bulatov
VS
S. Cherchesov
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Akron Rank: D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Orenburg Rank: W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 6 - 18
18
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min) Krylya Sovetov0%
Draw
0%
Akhmat Grozny0%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.47 24.99 0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat GroznyPower Score
14.47
24.99
League Position
13
9
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Krylya Sovetov
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Akhmat Grozny
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Attacking Efficiency Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.26
32.82
Defensive Efficiency Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.82
19.26
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krylya Sovetov -1.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Akhmat Grozny +1.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Krylya Sovetov ⚠ Proxyvs
⚠ Proxy Akhmat Grozny
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Krylya Sovetovvs
Akhmat Grozny
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krylya Sovetov 0.16
Akhmat Grozny 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krylya Sovetov 0.06
Akhmat Grozny 0.04
Krylya Sovetov
Akhmat Grozny
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- Krylya Sovetov had peak pressure around 89'.
- AKH started the game with stronger pressure.
Krylya Sovetov Pressure AKH Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Krylya Sovetov reached the top pressure at 89' (78.38).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Home
33 matches
Akhmat Grozny AKH Away
Match Record 9
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
9
Goals 35
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
35
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:01:34+00:00
STARTING XI
Krylya Sovetov Akhmat Grozny Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
30 S. Pesyakov
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
23 N. Chernov
47 S. Bozhin
15 N. Rasskazov
M. Banjac
#1446'
6 S. Babkin
A. Shumanskiy
#7081'
8 M. Vityugov
2 K. Pechenin
V. Ignatenko
#9181'
11 A. Rahmanović
V. Khubulov
#1088'
19 I. Oleynikov
I. Akhmetov
#7765'
26 J. Marín
1 V. Uljanov
8 M. Bogosavac
5 K. Cake
22 M. Zare Mohazabieh
82 D. Khlusevich
Ğ. Kenjebek
#2375'
37 P. Gadio
19 S. Pryakhin
T. Ibishev
#482'
7 L. Sadulaev
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
B. Mansilla
#962'
20 M. Samorodov
M. Konaté
#1382'
77 G. Melkadze
General Information
📅 Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 11:00 AM
🏆 Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
🏟️ Stadium :
Samara Arena
👥 Capacity :
44918
🌱 Pitch Surface :
Grass
🌤️ Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
🧑⚖️ Referees :
Yan Bobrovskiy
Kirill Bolshakov
Aleksey Lapatukhin
Kirill Bolshakov
Next Match
Krylya Sovetov
vs
CSKA Moskva
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Venue: Samara Arena
Akhmat Grozny
vs
Spartak Moskva
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 19 Apr - 2:00 PM
Venue: Otkrytie Arena
Statistics
Possession
Krylya Sovetov
57%
AKH
43%
Top Statistics
2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 36
61 Possession 39
11 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
Match Overview
14 Dribble Attempts 17
23 Throwins 19
14 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
2 Assists 1
7 Goal Kicks 5
8 Successful Headers 7
2 Successful Dribbles 9
0 Penalties 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
3 Injuries 1
86 Ball Safe 86
7 Goal Attempts 8
5 Substitutions 4
Attacking
107 Attacks 88
0 Big Chances Missed 1
Possession
84 Successful Passes Percentage 77
31 Successful Long Passes 22
482 Passes 311
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
404 Successful Passes 240
54 Long Passes 54
Defensive
1 Saves 4
16 Interceptions 15
17 Tackles 29
Build-up
4 Accurate Crosses 5
20 Total Crosses 12
Discipline
12 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 0
Lineup
Krylya Sovetov Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy
Manager ▼
S. Bulatov Coach
Starting XI ▼
30 S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
22 Fernando Costanza Defender
23 Nikita Chernov Defender
47 Sergey Bozhin Defender
2 Kirill Pechenin Midfielder
6 S. Babkin Midfielder
14Mihajlo Banjac
Midfielder46'
8 M. Vityugov Midfielder
70Artem Shumansky
Attacker81'
15 N. Rasskazov Midfielder
11 A. Rahmanović Attacker
91V. Ignatenko
Attacker81'
19 I. Oleynikov Attacker
10Vladimir Khubulov
Midfielder88'
26 Jimmy Marín Attacker
77I. Akhmetov
Midfielder65'
Substitutes ▼
14Mihajlo Banjac
Midfielder46'
77I. Akhmetov
Midfielder65'
91V. Ignatenko
Attacker81'
70Artem Shumansky
Attacker81'
10Vladimir Khubulov
Midfielder88'
Bench ▼
39
E. Frolov Goalkeeper
80
Nikita Kokarev Goalkeeper
5
D. Oroz Defender
18
I. Lepskiy Defender
24 R. Evgenyev Defender
72
Dani Fernández Defender
20 K. Stolbov Midfielder
Akhmat Grozny Referee : Yan Bobrovskiy
Manager ▼
S. Cherchesov Coach
Starting XI ▼
1 Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
5 Klisman Cake Defender
8 Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
22 Mohammadmehdi Zare Defender
82 Daniil Khlusevich Defender
7 Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
4Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Defender82'
17 Egas Cacintura Midfielder
19 S. Pryakhin Midfielder
20 Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
9Brian Mansilla
Attacker62'
37 P. Gadio Midfielder
23Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder75'
77 Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
13Mohamed Konaté
Attacker82'
Substitutes ▼
9Brian Mansilla
Attacker62'
23Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder75'
4Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Defender82'
13Mohamed Konaté
Attacker82'
Bench ▼
72 Y. Magomedov Goalkeeper
88 Giorgiy Shelia Goalkeeper
2 Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov Defender
40
Rizvan Utsiev Defender
81 Maksim Sidorov Defender
10
Rifat Zhemaletdinov Midfielder
27 Akhmed Davlitgereev Midfielder
80
Valeri Tsarukyan Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
90+3'
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Vladimir Khubulov → I. Oleynikov
9th Substitution
88'
82'
Turpal-Ali Ibishev → Lechi Sadulaev
7th Substitution
82'
Mohamed Konaté → Georgiy Melkadze
8th Substitution
V. Ignatenko → A. Rahmanović
5th Substitution
81'
Artem Shumansky → M. Vityugov
6th Substitution
81'
75'
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → P. Gadio
4th Substitution
71'
Lechi Sadulaev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Nikita Chernov
Header / 3rd Goal
70'
I. Oleynikov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
I. Akhmetov → Jimmy Marín
3rd Substitution
65'
62'
Brian Mansilla → Maksim Samorodov
2nd Substitution
Mihajlo Banjac → S. Babkin
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Kirill Pechenin
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+3'
Maksim Samorodov
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
40'
Egas Cacintura
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
39'
Georgiy Melkadze
Penalty awarded
S. Babkin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
10'
Georgiy Melkadze
Header / 2nd Goal
A. Rahmanović
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
4'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Krylya Sovetov exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
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