Krasnodar vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion FK Krasnodar Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Krasnodar KRA
2 Winner 1
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 27 Regular Season
Jhon Córdoba - 66'
Nikita Krivtsov - 29'
Goal
|
Goal
Diego Costa - 4' (Own Goal)
|
Second yellow card Miro 90+5'

CONTEXT

Krasnodar claimed a 2-1 victory against Dynamo Makhachkala in a competitive Russian Premier League encounter. The first half ended level at 1-1, with both sides trading goals amid balanced action despite Krasnodar's 67% possession dominance. Dynamo Makhachkala held firm, but the second half shifted dramatically when they received a red card, leaving them with 10 players. Krasnodar, recognized as the stronger team, capitalized on the numerical edge to secure the winning goal, though they faced stubborn resistance. This outcome highlighted significant structural deviation in Krasnodar's favor, with efficiency holding steady in line with projections. The red card introduced clear distortion, reshaping second-half dynamics and preventing a more decisive scoreline. Possession stats underscored Krasnodar's control, yet the match remained tense until the final whistle.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar recorded a significant structural deviation of 100%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true for the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available metrics.
  • Event impact: Dynamo Makhachkala's red card altered second-half momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Abrosimov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

K. Bolshakov

1st Assistant

E. Bolkhovitin

2nd Assistant

A. Prokopov

4th Official

Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
VS
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
2.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: W
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Zenit Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krasnodar
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dynamo Makhachkala
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
40.01
18.16
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krasnodar
Dynamo Makhachkala
Power Score
40.01
18.16
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krasnodar Dynamo Makhachkala

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.57
39.55
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.55
31.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krasnodar -0.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala +0.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
Dynamo Makhachkala
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krasnodar Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krasnodar Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
Dynamo Makhachkala
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Krasnodar
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krasnodar Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krasnodar 0.29
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krasnodar Dynamo Makhachkala
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krasnodar 0.02
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.03
Krasnodar
Dynamo Makhachkala
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KRA had peak pressure around 41'.
  • KRA started the game with stronger pressure.
KRA Pressure Dynamo Makhachkala Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KRA reached the top pressure at 41' (67.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krasnodar KRA Home
3 matches
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
5
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
G. González Apud
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
J. Rocha Mendes Junior
Brazil
5 J. Rocha Mendes Junior
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
A. Chernikov
Substitution
Russia
53 A. Chernikov
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
N. Krivtsov
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete
Pitch
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
J. Đapo
Substitution
Slovenia
71 J. Đapo
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
M. Azzi
Substitution
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
A. Dzhabrailov
Substitution
Russia
21 A. Dzhabrailov
H. Mastouri
Tunisia
7 H. Mastouri
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion FK Krasnodar
Capacity :
35074
Attendance :
32481
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kirill Bolshakov
Egor Bolkhovitin
Andrey Prokopov
Ivan Abrosimov

Statistics

Possession
KRA
62%
Dynamo Makhachkala
38%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 2
63 Dangerous attacks 41
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Injuries 4
86 Ball Safe 72
12 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 5
25 Throwins 25
11 Dribble Attempts 14
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
5 Goal Kicks 11
5 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
19 Successful Headers 13
1 Assists 0

Attacking

94 Attacks 78
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 28
31 Successful Long Passes 18
79 Successful Passes Percentage 58
461 Passes 233
66 Long Passes 64
366 Successful Passes 135

Defensive

54 Duels Won 45
4 Interceptions 16
19 Tackles 13
2 Saves 4

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 13
11 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
6.82
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
7.17
5
Jubal
Jubal Defender
6.89
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
7.17
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Defender
6.81
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
6.75
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
7.6
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev
Defender82'
6.8
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
6.77
90
Moses David Cobnan
Moses David Cobnan
Attacker78'
6.7
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov Midfielder
6.8
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker59'
6.95
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
6.87
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker
7.2
Referee : Ivan Abrosimov

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
6.69
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
6.66
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.76
19
Kirill Zinovich
Kirill Zinovich
Midfielder74'
6.49
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
6.64
71
Jan Dapo
Jan Dapo Defender
6.46
72
Aleksandr Sandrachuk
Aleksandr Sandrachuk
Defender58'
6.27
7
Hazem Mastouri
Hazem Mastouri Midfielder
6.8
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
6.87
9
Razhab Magomedov
Razhab Magomedov
Midfielder69'
6.43
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
6.99
21
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov
Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov Midfielder
6.51
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov
Defender74'
6.6
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
6.69
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
6.72
11
Miro
Miro
Attacker58'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Miro
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Diego Costa
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90+1'
87'
Event
Miro
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Valentin Paltsev → Eduard Spertsyan
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Moses David Cobnan → João Batxi
7th Substitution
78'
74'
Event
Soslan Kagermazov → Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Kirill Zinovich → Mohamed Azzi
6th Substitution
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
71'
69'
Event
Razhab Magomedov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
4th Substitution
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
60'
Event
Hazem Mastouri
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → Aleksandr Chernikov
3rd Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Miro → Gamid Agalarov
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Aleksandr Sandrachuk → Jan Dapo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Eduard Spertsyan
Woodwork
36'
35'
Event
Jemal Tabidze
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Lenini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Nikita Krivtsov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
29'
4'
Event
Diego Costa
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal

CONCLUSION

Krasnodar's 2-1 triumph over Dynamo Makhachkala reinforces their status as the stronger outfit, navigating a red card distortion that tilted the second half. Level at 1-1 halftime, they leveraged 67% possession and the away side's numerical disadvantage to grind out the result. While xG data absence limits deeper analysis, structural deviation proved decisive, aligning with market views and maintaining efficiency. This performance highlights resilience against a compact defense, securing vital points. The win positions Krasnodar favorably, showcasing ability to convert dominance into results despite disruptions.

Krasnodar vs Dynamo Makhachkala preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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