Krasnodar vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion FK Krasnodar Sun, 19 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Krasnodar KRA
2 – 2
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 25 Regular Season
Jubal - 90+2'
Juan Manuel Boselli - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Maksim Petrov - 66'
Mingiyan Beveev - 43'

CONTEXT

Krasnodar secured a hard-fought 2-1 home victory over Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League, staging a remarkable second-half turnaround after trailing 0-1 at halftime. Despite Baltika's early lead, Krasnodar controlled 65% possession throughout, showcasing dominance that eventually paid off with two unanswered goals post-interval. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Krasnodar's win featured a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor, with efficiency shifts remaining in line with expectations. No red cards disrupted proceedings, and the outcome aligned fully with market sentiments. This resilience highlights Krasnodar's ability to convert sustained pressure into results against a stubborn opponent, reinforcing their competitive edge in the league.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar delivered a significant 100% structural deviation en route to victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift aligned precisely with pre-established expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment remained undetermined absent performance metrics.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment proved fully consistent with the final result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable due to unavailable data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted natural game flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Levnikov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Ermakov

1st Assistant

A. Vereteshkin

2nd Assistant

S. Matveev

4th Official

Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Rubin Kazan Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: D
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Sochi Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rostov Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Krasnodar
0%
Draw
0%
Away Baltika Kaliningrad
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
36.75
26.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Krasnodar
Baltika Kaliningrad
Power Score
36.75
26.68
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Krasnodar Baltika Kaliningrad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.54
44.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
44.86
30.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Krasnodar -1.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad +1.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
Baltika Kaliningrad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Krasnodar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Krasnodar Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Krasnodar Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Krasnodar
Baltika Kaliningrad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Krasnodar
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Krasnodar Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Krasnodar 0.30
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Krasnodar Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Krasnodar 0.06
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.04
Krasnodar
Baltika Kaliningrad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KRA had peak pressure around 95'.
  • KRA started the game with stronger pressure.
KRA Pressure Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KRA reached the top pressure at 95' (77.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Krasnodar KRA Home
3 matches
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
6
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
G. González Apud
Substitution
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
N. Krivtsov
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
A. Chernikov
Russia
53 A. Chernikov
J. Boselli Graf
Substitution
Uruguay
23 J. Boselli Graf
E. Spertsyan
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete
Pitch
I. Kukushkin
Russia
81 I. Kukushkin
A. Filin
Russia
25 A. Filin
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
N. Gassama
Substitution
France
4 N. Gassama
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
I. Belikov
Substitution
26 I. Belikov
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
N. Titkov
Russia
22 N. Titkov
D. Severino Lacerda
Substitution
Brazil
18 D. Severino Lacerda
M. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
73 M. Petrov

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion FK Krasnodar
Capacity :
35074
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dmitri Ermakov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Stanislav Matveev
Kirill Levnikov

Statistics

Possession
KRA
60%
Baltika Kaliningrad
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 4
57 Dangerous attacks 34
65 Possession 35
3 Corners 2
23 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

19 Dribble Attempts 8
26 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
9 Goal Kicks 8
22 Throwins 16
5 Successful Dribbles 2
15 Successful Headers 25
3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
12 Goal Attempts 10
0 Injuries 5
91 Ball Safe 77

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
96 Attacks 71

Possession

319 Successful Passes 136
76 Successful Passes Percentage 59
418 Passes 230
66 Long Passes 74
31 Successful Long Passes 26
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35

Defensive

6 Interceptions 17
2 Saves 3
54 Duels Won 56
12 Tackles 18

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 10
10 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 22

Lineup

Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
6.82
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
7.03
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
7.19
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
7.19
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Defender
6.86
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev
Defender71'
6.8
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
7.67
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
6.8
5
Jubal
Jubal
Defender90+1'
6.75
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli Midfielder
6.95
90
Moses David Cobnan
Moses David Cobnan
Attacker62'
6.74
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov Midfielder
6.86
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
6.86
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker
7.23
Referee : Kirill Levnikov

Starting XI ▼

81
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper
6.2
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
6.86
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
7.08
25
Aleksandr Filin
Aleksandr Filin Defender
7.02
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Midfielder
7.11
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender69'
6.74
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
6.9
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov
Attacker46'
6.61
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder
6.85
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov Midfielder
6.94
8
Andrey Mendel
Andrey Mendel
Midfielder46'
6.8
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda Attacker
6.71
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker69'
6.67
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Attacker
6.87
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
7.12
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson
Defender90'
6.36

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Andrey Mendel
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Chinonso Offor
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Jubal
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+2'
Event
Jubal → João Batxi
8th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Eduardo Anderson → Maksim Petrov
7th Substitution
85'
Event
I. Kukushkin
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Moses David Cobnan
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Giovanni González
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Valentin Paltsev → Giovanni González
6th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Chinonso Offor → Derik Lacerda
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → Nathan Gassama
5th Substitution
Event
Diego Costa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
68'
66'
Event
Maksim Petrov
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Moses David Cobnan → Juan Manuel Boselli
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
46'
Event
Andrey Mendel → Ivan Belikov
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
I. Manelov → Ilya Petrov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Mingiyan Beveev
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'
Event
Ilya Petrov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Aleksandr Chernikov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
22'
17'
Event
Ivan Belikov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Krasnodar's comeback triumph over Baltika Kaliningrad exemplifies second-half mastery, transforming 65% possession into a decisive 2-1 win after an early setback. The significant structural deviation underscored their superiority as the stronger side, while efficiency stayed on track without red card interruptions. Market alignment further validated the predictable outcome, free from xG data ambiguities. This performance bolsters Krasnodar's momentum, exposing Baltika's vulnerability in holding leads. Ultimately, the match narrative celebrates home resilience and tactical poise in high-stakes football.

Krasnodar vs Baltika Kaliningrad preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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