Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Fri, 1 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
1 – 1
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Full Time Fri, 1 May 3:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Dawid Blanik - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Juande Rivas - 53'

CONTEXT

Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice finished their match in a 1-1 draw, with no goals at halftime reflecting the even 0-0 scoreline. Korona Kielce held a slight edge in possession at 51% to Piast Gliwice's 49%, but the home team suffered a red card, altering the game's dynamics in the second half. Despite Piast Gliwice entering as the stronger team, the result ended level, marking a significant structural deviation of 71.3% favoring Piast Gliwice. Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card introduced distortion, particularly post-halftime, contributing to the unexpected outcome. Market expectations were not aligned with the final draw, highlighting variances in performance under pressure. This match underscores how disciplinary events can shift momentum in closely contested fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 71.3% favored Piast Gliwice in the 1-1 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved with the draw result.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unevaluated owing to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: Home red card created substantial event impact on second-half play.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Korona Kielce distorted second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Gryckiewicz

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Boniek

1st Assistant

B. Kaszyński

2nd Assistant

M. Mastaj

4th Official

Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 64 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 60 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 10 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
41.45%
Draw
28.7%
Away Piast Gliwice
29.85%

Movement

Changes since opening
Korona Kielce
+37.86%
Draw
-63.66%
Piast Gliwice
+25.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.35
61.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
Power Score
60.35
61.1
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
464
443

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.24
33.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.27
28.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Korona Kielce -0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Piast Gliwice +0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Korona Kielce
vs
Piast Gliwice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Korona Kielce 0.25
Piast Gliwice 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Piast Gliwice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Korona Kielce 0.02
Piast Gliwice 0.02
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Korona Kielce had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Korona Kielce started the game with stronger pressure.
Korona Kielce Pressure Piast Gliwice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Korona Kielce reached the top pressure at 13' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
27 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record
8
Wins
9
10
Draws
10
9
Losses
8
Goals
26
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
26
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:03:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
B. Smolarczyk
Poland
24 B. Smolarczyk
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
S. Gustafson
Sweden
86 S. Gustafson
T. Svetlin
Substitution
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
K. Matuszewski
Substitution
Poland
3 K. Matuszewski
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
Pitch
D. Holec
Slovakia
30 D. Holec
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
F. Borowski
Poland
28 F. Borowski
Leandro Sanca
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
11 Leandro Sanca
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
J. Eyenga-Lokilo
Substitution
DR Congo
98 J. Eyenga-Lokilo
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García
Q. Boisgard
Substitution
France
17 Q. Boisgard

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Exbud Arena
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Bartosz Kaszyński
Mateusz Mastaj

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
50%
Piast Gliwice
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 14
48 Dangerous attacks 46
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
12 Dribble Attempts 8
22 Throwins 26
9 Goal Kicks 4
2 Hit Woodwork 2
2 Successful Dribbles 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
75 Ball Safe 72
7 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

94 Attacks 82
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 36
80 Successful Passes Percentage 76
323 Successful Passes 295
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
54 Long Passes 76
404 Passes 386

Defensive

12 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 3
2 Saves 6
54 Duels Won 58

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 16
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
6.95
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
7.11
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Defender
6.87
24
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender
6.76
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder
6.96
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Defender84'
6.97
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
6.93
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson Midfielder
6.58
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
6.91
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic
Midfielder68'
6.73
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
7.23
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker78'
6.69
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Attacker
6.92
10
Nono
Nono
Midfielder78'
6.61
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
6.92
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker68'
6.54
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

30
Dominik Holec
Dominik Holec Goalkeeper
7.54
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
7.03
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski Defender
6.48
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
6.85
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
6.76
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
7.07
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca Midfielder
7
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo
Attacker58'
6.75
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6.81
23
Szczepan Mucha
Szczepan Mucha
Midfielder90+1'
6.43
98
Jason Lokilo
Jason Lokilo Midfielder
6.82
70
Andreas Katsantonis
Andreas Katsantonis
Attacker80'
6.65
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
6.87
63
German Barkovskiy
German Barkovskiy
Attacker58'
6.84
17
Quentin Boisgard
Quentin Boisgard Attacker
6.65
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak
Midfielder80'
6.8

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jacek Zielinski
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Szczepan Mucha → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
10th Substitution
Event
Wiktor Dlugosz
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Konstantinos Sotiriou → Konrad Matuszewski
9th Substitution
84'
80'
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → Jason Lokilo
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Quentin Boisgard
8th Substitution
Event
Antoñín → Dawid Blanik
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Nono → Martin Remacle
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Simon Gustafson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Tamar Svetlin
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Mariusz Stepinski
4th Substitution
68'
58'
Event
German Barkovskiy → Jorge Félix
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Hugo Vallejo → Leandro Sanca
2nd Substitution
Event
Dawid Blanik
Header / 2nd Goal
56'
53'
Event
Juande Rivas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
German Barkovskiy takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Szczepan Mucha comes on for Grzegorz Tomasiewicz.
90
Attempt Attempt
German Barkovskiy takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Antonin takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Stjepan Davidovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Update Update
Konstantinos Sotiriou is on, and Konrad Matuszewski is off.
83
Attempt Attempt
German Barkovskiy takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
83
Attempt Attempt
German Barkovskiy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Filip Borowski takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Update Update
Pau Resta's header is blocked.
80
Update Update
Oskar Lesniak comes on for Quentin Boisgard.
80
Update Update
Andreas Katsantonis replaces Jason Eyenga Lokilo.
78
Update Update
Antonin comes on for Dawid Blanik.
78
Update Update
David Gonzalez Plata is on, and Martin Remacle is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
German Barkovskiy takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Quentin Boisgard takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
74
Attempt Attempt
Quentin Boisgard takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
73
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Dziczek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simon Gustafson receives a yellow card.
68
Update Update
Vladimir Nikolov replaces Mariusz Stepinski.
68
Update Update
Stjepan Davidovic is on, and Tamar Svetlin is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Igor Drapinski attempted a header but missed the shot.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: German Barkovskiy replaces Jorge Felix.
58
Update Update
Hugo Claudio Vallejo Aviles comes on for Leandro Mario Balde Sanca.
56
Update Update
Goal! Dawid Blanik scores, making it 1-1.
56
Update Update
Dawid Blanik scores with a header.
53
Attempt Attempt
Juan de Dios Rivas scores with a right-footed shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
49
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Blanik's right-footed shot is blocked.
26
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Quentin Boisgard takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Mariusz Stepinski's header is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Mariusz Stepinski takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Update Update
Mariusz Stepinski's header hits the post.
9
Attempt Attempt
Juan de Dios Rivas takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice defied pre-match perceptions of Piast as the stronger side, amplified by Korona's red card which distorted proceedings after a goalless first half. With balanced possession and no xG data, analysis points to a significant 71.3% structural deviation for Piast, yet efficiency held steady. Market misalignment underscores the unpredictability introduced by the sending-off, preventing the visitors from capitalizing fully. This outcome reflects tactical resilience from the home side despite numerical disadvantage, emphasizing red card effects in maintaining parity. Overall, the match illustrates how single events can realign expectations in evenly poised encounters.

Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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