Korona Kielce vs Katowice Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Exbud Arena Sat, 25 Apr - 12:45 PM

Ekstraklasa

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce

1 – 1

Katowice Katowice

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 12:45 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Marcel Pieczek - 66'

Arkadiusz Jedrych - 35'

CONTEXT

Korona Kielce and Katowice battled to a 1-1 draw in a competitive Ekstraklasa match. Katowice, identified as the stronger team, seized a 0-1 halftime lead with disciplined defending against Korona's 56% possession dominance. The home side rallied in the second half, equalizing through persistent pressure and creating chances without red cards disrupting play. No major events or adjustments altered the flow, maintaining structural integrity. The outcome marked a significant 74% deviation linked to Katowice, diverging from pre-match expectations of 44.5% home win, 26% draw, and 29.5% away victory probabilities. Efficiency remained in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper insights. Both teams displayed resilience, splitting points evenly.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match showed a significant 74% structural deviation attributed to Katowice.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Market alignment not achieved in the draw result.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without data.
Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the match.
Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

B. Frankowski

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Winkler

1st Assistant

?. Siercha

2nd Assistant

S. Rutkowski

4th Official

J. Zielinski

R. Górak

1.06

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Korona Kielce

44.47%

Draw

26%

Katowice

29.53%

Movement

Changes since opening

Korona Kielce

+38.2%

Draw

-62.77%

Katowice

+24.58%

Team Power Ranking

19.73

31.38

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Korona Kielce

Katowice

Power Score

19.73

31.38

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score

Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Katowice

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

34.38

40.68

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

40.68

34.38

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Korona Kielce -0.58 Efficiency Index

Katowice +0.58 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Korona Kielce

Katowice

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Katowice

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Korona Kielce Katowice

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Korona Kielce Katowice

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Korona Kielce

Katowice

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Korona Kielce

Katowice

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Korona Kielce Katowice

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Korona Kielce Katowice

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Korona Kielce

Katowice

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Katowice had peak pressure around 60'.
Korona Kielce started the game with stronger pressure.

Korona Kielce Pressure Katowice Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Katowice reached the top pressure at 60' (83.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home

3 matches

Katowice Katowice Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:02:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

1 X. Dziekonski

24 B. Smolarczyk

5 P. Resta Tell

6 M. Pieczek

37 H. Zwoźny

86 S. Gustafson

8 M. Remacle

3 K. Matuszewski

71 W. Długosz

7 D. Błanik

14 M. Stępiński

1 D. Kudła

14 M. Berntsen Olsen

4 A. Jędrych

30 A. Czerwiński

23 M. Wasielewski

22 S. Milewski

26 D. Rasak

97 E. Jirka

27 B. Nowak

15 E. Marković

80 I. Shkurin

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 12:45 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Exbud Arena

Capacity :

5000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Bartosz Frankowski

Jacub Winkler

Łukasz Siercha

Szymon Rutkowski

Statistics

Possession

Korona Kielce

55%

Katowice

45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

2 Big Chances Created 2

10 Shots 6

45 Dangerous attacks 38

56 Possession 44

5 Corners 3

8 Free kicks 9

2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 14

23 Dribble Attempts 11

70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

16 Successful Dribbles 3

65 Ball Safe 74

31 Throwins 24

10 Goal Attempts 6

1 Injuries 4

4 Substitutions 5

1 Assists 0

Attacking

105 Attacks 90

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

333 Successful Passes 253

22 Successful Long Passes 20

33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

67 Long Passes 66

437 Passes 354

14 Key Passes 12

76 Successful Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

62 Duels Won 47

14 Tackles 10

8 Interceptions 6

4 Saves 3

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 15

12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski

Manager ▼

J. Zielinski Coach

Starting XI ▼

Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper

6.94

Pau Resta Defender

7.1

Marcel Pieczek Defender

6.84

Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender

6.76

Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder

6.95

Martin Remacle Midfielder

6.91

Hubert Zwozny Midfielder

6.5

Stjepan Davidovic

Midfielder58'

6.73

Simon Gustafson Midfielder

6.52

Nono

Midfielder87'

6.61

Dawid Blanik Attacker

7.22

Marcin Cebula

Midfielder87'

6.45

Mariusz Stepinski Attacker

6.94

Vladimir Nikolov

Attacker80'

6.54

Wiktor Dlugosz Attacker

6.91

Substitutes ▼

Stjepan Davidovic

Midfielder58'

6.73

Vladimir Nikolov

Attacker80'

6.54

Marcin Cebula

Midfielder87'

6.45

Nono

Midfielder87'

6.61

Bench ▼

Rafal Mamla Goalkeeper

Nikodem Niski Defender

6.52

Konrad Ciszek Defender

6.51

Slobodan Rubezic Defender

6.74

Viktor Popov Defender

6.55

Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender

6.97

Kacper Minuczyc Midfielder

Referee : Bartosz Frankowski