Kocaelispor vs İstanbul Başakşehir Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey

İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Mon, 6 Apr - 5:00 PM

Super Lig

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor

0 – 0

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:00 PM

Round 28 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Kocaelispor and İstanbul Başakşehir has officially finished in a 0-0 draw, keeping the scoreline identical to the goalless first half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the stronger side, İstanbul Başakşehir. Going into the fixture, the visitors had a 44.3% chance of victory according to the pre-match market, while a draw was given just a 27.3% probability and a Kocaelispor win was at 28.4%. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the initial market predictions. On the pitch, İstanbul Başakşehir heavily dominated the ball, recording 66% possession compared to Kocaelispor's 34%. Despite this control, neither side could break the deadlock in a clean match that featured zero red cards for either team. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the goalless outcome was consistent with the underlying quality of chances created. However, both teams' offensive production was entirely in line with expectations regarding overall efficiency shifts, as a lack of cutting edge ultimately forced the sides to share the spoils.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Yılmaz

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Çomoğlu

2nd Assistant

S. Bahadır

4th Official

M. Curbay

1st Assistant

S. İnan

N. Şahin

1.47

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.85

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Kocaelispor

28.35%

Draw

27.32%

İstanbul Başakşehir

44.33%

Team Power Ranking

56.67

74.28

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Kocaelispor

İstanbul Başakşehir

Power Score

56.67

74.28

League Position

Global Rank

331

114

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score

İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

36.03

23.71

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

23.71

36.03

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Kocaelispor +1.24 Efficiency Index

İstanbul Başakşehir -1.24 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Kocaelispor

İstanbul Başakşehir

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Kocaelispor

İstanbul Başakşehir

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Kocaelispor

İstanbul Başakşehir

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Kocaelispor

İstanbul Başakşehir

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home

2 matches

İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-6

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

83 S. Öztaşdelen

22 A. Oğuz

2 A. Dijksteel

6 H. Smolčić

3 M. Cinan

20 M. Susoho

14 M. Da Silva Cafumana

8 H. Keita

7 D. Agyei

19 S. Dursun

75 T. Bingöl

16 M. Şengezer

21 C. Operi

3 J. Opoku

5 L. Duarte da Silva

42 Ö. Şahiner

20 U. Güneş

8 O. Kemen

25 A. Harit

14 E. Shomurodov

7 Y. Sari

9 D. Selke

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season

Stadium :

İsmetpaşa Stadyumu

Capacity :

34829

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

M. Çomoğlu

Süleyman Bahadır

Murat Tuğberk Curbay

A. Yılmaz

Statistics

Possession

Kocaelispor

38%

IBA

62%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1

8 Shots 5

25 Dangerous attacks 53

34 Possession 66

1 Corners 8

7 Free kicks 10

0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 21

9 Goal Kicks 8

12 Successful Headers 16

3 Dribble Attempts 10

2 Successful Dribbles 6

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

9 Goal Attempts 6

86 Ball Safe 102

2 Injuries 0

5 Substitutions 3

1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 105

1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

189 Successful Passes 459

49 Long Passes 55

70 Successful Passes Percentage 87

271 Passes 529

8 Key Passes 9

31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51

15 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

14 Tackles 2

7 Interceptions 5

35 Duels Won 36

2 Saves 1

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 29

2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 7

4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : A. Yılmaz

Manager ▼

S. İnan Coach

Starting XI ▼

Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper

Anfernee Dijksteel Defender

Muharrem Cinan Defender

Rigoberto Rivas

Attacker68'

Hrvoje Smolcic Defender

Ahmet Oğuz Defender

Can Keleş

Attacker90'

Habib Keïta Midfielder

Samet Yalçın

Midfielder83'

Show Midfielder

Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder

Karol Linetty

Midfielder83'

Dan Agyei Attacker

Serdar Dursun Attacker

Tayfur Bingöl Attacker

Darko Churlinov

Attacker68'

Substitutes ▼

Darko Churlinov

Attacker68'

Rigoberto Rivas

Attacker68'

Karol Linetty

Midfielder83'

Samet Yalçın

Midfielder83'

Can Keleş

Attacker90'

Bench ▼

Gökhan Değirmenci Goalkeeper

Deniz Ceylan Defender

Joseph Nonge Midfielder

Bruno Petkovic Attacker

Furkan Gedik Attacker

Referee : A. Yılmaz