Kocaelispor vs Göztepe Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Sat, 18 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
1 – 1
Göztepe GOZ
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Serdar Dursun - 90+8' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Janderson - 3'
Show 77' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Kocaelispor and Göztepe battled to a hard-fought 1-1 draw in a match defined by dominance, resilience, and a pivotal sending-off. The home side, recognized as the stronger team, dictated play with 70% possession, creating numerous chances but trailing 0-1 at halftime after Göztepe's early strike. Kocaelispor roared back in the second half, equalizing to spark hopes of victory, yet a red card reduced them to ten men, shifting momentum dramatically. Despite the disadvantage, they defended stoutly to secure a share of the spoils, denying Göztepe a win against the run of pre-match form. This outcome highlights how a single event can upend expectations in closely contested fixtures, with Kocaelispor's control not translating into three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kocaelispor showed a significant 96.3% structural deviation favoring their pre-match positioning.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome consistency assessment.
  • Market alignment: Final draw misaligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG metrics block evaluation of performance against expectations.
  • Event impact: Home red card profoundly altered second-half match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Kocaelispor's dismissal caused clear second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Yılmaz

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

H. Ülker

4th Official

O. Kamacı

1st Assistant

M. Çelebi

2nd Assistant

Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
VS
Göztepe S. Stoilov
S. Stoilov
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: D
Alanyaspor Rank: L
Konyaspor Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Beşiktaş Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
Gençlerbirliği Rank: W
Alanyaspor Rank: D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Eyüpspor Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kocaelispor
0.19%
Draw
3.73%
Away Göztepe
96.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.42
21.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
Power Score
21.42
21.19
League Position
10
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Göztepe — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor Göztepe

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Göztepe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Göztepe
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.07
26.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.67
34.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kocaelispor +0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Göztepe -0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Göztepe
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kocaelispor Göztepe
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kocaelispor Göztepe
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kocaelispor
vs
Göztepe
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kocaelispor Göztepe
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kocaelispor 0.37
Göztepe 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kocaelispor Göztepe
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kocaelispor 0.05
Göztepe 0.02
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kocaelispor had peak pressure around 42'.
  • Kocaelispor started the game with stronger pressure.
Kocaelispor Pressure GOZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kocaelispor reached the top pressure at 42' (99.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home
1 matches
Göztepe GOZ Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:04:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Turkey
83 S. Öztaşdelen
A. Oğuz
Substitution
Turkey
22 A. Oğuz
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
M. Haïdara
Mali
21 M. Haïdara
T. Bingöl
Substitution
Turkey
75 T. Bingöl
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
H. Keita
Substitution
Mali
8 H. Keita
R. Rivas Vindel
Substitution
Honduras
99 R. Rivas Vindel
D. Agyei
England
7 D. Agyei
J. Nonge Boende
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
Pitch
M. Lis
Poland
1 M. Lis
M. Mputu
Cameroon
26 M. Mputu
H. dos Santos
Brazil
5 H. dos Santos
A. Godói Santos
Brazil
3 A. Godói Santos
M. Cherni
France
15 M. Cherni
N. Dismas
Tanzania
20 N. Dismas
A. Dennis
Substitution
Nigeria
30 A. Dennis
O. Bayrak
Substitution
Turkey
77 O. Bayrak
E. Bekiroglu
Substitution
Germany
11 E. Bekiroglu
Juan
Substitution
Brazil
9 Juan
J. de Carvalho Costa
Substitution
Brazil
39 J. de Carvalho Costa

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu
Capacity :
34829
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Hakan Ülker
Ogün Kamacı
Mücahid Adem Çelebi
A. Yılmaz

Statistics

Possession
Kocaelispor
66%
GOZ
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 1
57 Dangerous attacks 20
70 Possession 30
9 Corners 0
22 Free kicks 11
5 Yellow Cards 7
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Assists 1
30 Successful Headers 23
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13
3 Successful Dribbles 1
76 Ball Safe 67
4 Substitutions 5
17 Goal Attempts 4
20 Throwins 17
4 Goal Kicks 14
2 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Penalties 0
1 Injuries 3

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 1
113 Attacks 88

Possession

441 Passes 192
81 Successful Passes Percentage 57
17 Key Passes 3
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
31 Successful Long Passes 20
358 Successful Passes 109
58 Long Passes 59

Defensive

16 Tackles 12
71 Duels Won 46
2 Interceptions 5
2 Saves 3

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 23
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
7.33
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6.67
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
7.01
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Defender
6.81
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
6.98
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho
Midfielder89'
6.56
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
6.78
10
Karol Linetty
Karol Linetty
Midfielder89'
6.71
14
Show
Show Midfielder
6.83
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl Midfielder
6.82
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov
Attacker74'
6.69
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.58
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Attacker
6.56
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas Attacker
6.55
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun
Attacker64'
6.76
Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

1
Mateusz Lis
Mateusz Lis Goalkeeper
6.91
3
Allan Godói
Allan Godói Defender
6.89
5
Héliton
Héliton Defender
6.89
26
Malcom Bokele
Malcom Bokele Defender
6.73
15
Amin Cherni
Amin Cherni Midfielder
6.76
20
Novatus Miroshi
Novatus Miroshi Midfielder
6.77
30
Anthony Dennis
Anthony Dennis Midfielder
6.79
6
M. Mohammed
M. Mohammed
Midfielder72'
6.58
77
Ogün Bayrak
Ogün Bayrak Midfielder
6.66
2
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Attacker26'
6.8
9
Juan
Juan Attacker
7.05
14
Guilherme Luiz
Guilherme Luiz
Attacker78'
6.59
11
Efkan Bekiroğlu
Efkan Bekiroğlu Attacker
6.87
8
Alexis Antunes
Alexis Antunes
Midfielder72'
6.85
39
Janderson
Janderson Attacker
6.74
19
Jeh
Jeh
Attacker78'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Serdar Dursun
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+8'
90+7'
Event
Héliton
Argument / 11th Yellowcard
Event
Karol Linetty
Penalty awarded
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Alexis Antunes
Foul / 10th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Novatus Miroshi
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Darko Churlinov
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Karol Linetty
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Karol Linetty → Habib Keïta
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Mahamadou Susoho → Ahmet Oğuz
9th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Guilherme Luiz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Jeh → Janderson
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Guilherme Luiz → Juan
7th Substitution
Event
Show
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
77'
Event
Darko Churlinov → Tayfur Bingöl
5th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Alexis Antunes → Efkan Bekiroğlu
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
M. Mohammed → Anthony Dennis
4th Substitution
Event
Serdar Dursun → Rigoberto Rivas
2nd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Anthony Dennis
Persistent fouling / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Show
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Massadio Haïdara
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Arda Okan Kurtulan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Selçuk İnan
Argument / 12th Yellowcard
42'
26'
Event
Arda Okan Kurtulan → Ogün Bayrak
1st Substitution
25'
Event
Janderson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
Event
Janderson
Goal awarded
3'
Event
Janderson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Kocaelispor's draw against Göztepe underscores football's unpredictability, where superior possession and strength met a resilient opponent and self-inflicted setback. The red card proved decisive, forcing defensive adjustments that preserved a point but denied a deserved win. This result challenges assumptions of dominance guaranteeing victory, emphasizing discipline's role in high-stakes games. For Kocaelispor, it's a gritty salvage amid distortion; for Göztepe, a valuable away point. Moving forward, both sides gain momentum, with lessons in composure shaping future campaigns.

Kocaelispor vs Göztepe preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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