Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
0 Winner 1
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
Full Time Sat, 9 May 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Anıl Yiğit Çınar - 70'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kocaelispor 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük. The result saw Fatih Karagümrük take the points. Fatih Karagümrük showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 65%–35%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result showed minimal 4.4% deviation favoring Fatih Karagümrük.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undetermined due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No significant events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Kayatepe

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Alp

2nd Assistant

Türkiye

?. Uyarcan

1st Assistant

Türkiye

B. Olcar

4th Official

Türkiye

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.4
Yellow cards / match 4.22
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.32
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
VS
Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 L
Göztepe Rank: 72 D
Galatasaray Rank: 86 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 76 D
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 61 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 L
Rizespor Rank: 70 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kocaelispor
0.19%
Draw
4.2%
Away Fatih Karagümrük
95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kocaelispor
-0.44%
Draw
-6.36%
Fatih Karagümrük
+6.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.24
55.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
Power Score
57.24
55.53
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
327
412

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fatih Karagümrük
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kocaelispor
vs
Fatih Karagümrük
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kocaelispor 0.00
Fatih Karagümrük 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kocaelispor 0.00
Fatih Karagümrük 0.00
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kocaelispor had peak pressure around 91'.
  • Fatih Karagümrük started the game with stronger pressure.
Kocaelispor Pressure Fatih Karagümrük Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kocaelispor reached the top pressure at 91' (80.20).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home
1 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T16:31:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Türkiye
83 S. Öztaşdelen
A. Oğuz
Substitution
Türkiye
22 A. Oğuz
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Substitution
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
M. Haïdara
Mali
21 M. Haïdara
M. Susoho
Substitution
Spain
20 M. Susoho
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
C. Keles
Substitution
Austria
70 C. Keles
J. Nonge Boende
Substitution
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
D. Agyei
England
7 D. Agyei
S. Dursun
Germany
19 S. Dursun
Pitch
F. Bekleviç
Türkiye
99 F. Bekleviç
Ç. Kurukalıp
Türkiye
33 Ç. Kurukalıp
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
Chile
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
D. Biraschi
Italy
4 D. Biraschi
R. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
C. Kranevitter
Substitution
Argentina
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Özcan
Türkiye
8 B. Özcan
W. Shavy
Substitution
Gabon
80 W. Shavy
B. Elmaz
Türkiye
6 B. Elmaz
S. Da Luiz Junior
Substitution
Brazil
70 S. Da Luiz Junior
T. Cukur
Türkiye
21 T. Cukur

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu
Capacity :
34829
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ali Can Alp
İbrahim Çağlar Uyarcan
Burak Olcar
Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Statistics

Possession
Kocaelispor
61%
Fatih Karagümrük
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
0 Shots 1
36 Dangerous attacks 29
65 Possession 35
3 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 3
7 Goal Kicks 11
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
10 Successful Headers 11
25 Throwins 23
68 Ball Safe 72
8 Goal Attempts 5
0 Assists 1
11 Dribble Attempts 7
5 Successful Dribbles 3
0 Injuries 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
111 Attacks 71

Possession

498 Successful Passes 228
30 Successful Long Passes 19
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
88 Successful Passes Percentage 75
59 Long Passes 51
568 Passes 303
6 Key Passes 4

Defensive

36 Duels Won 40
9 Tackles 13
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

0 Accurate Crosses 2
16 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
6.69
14
Show
Show Defender
6.8
94
Esat Yusuf Narin
Esat Yusuf Narin
Midfielder88'
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Defender
6.81
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
6.95
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas
Attacker46'
6.54
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Midfielder
7.01
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Midfielder
6.59
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder
6.65
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov
Attacker73'
6.67
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş Midfielder
6.55
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl
Defender61'
6.81
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Midfielder
6.63
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta
Midfielder46'
6.78
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Attacker
6.74
Referee : Adnan Deniz Kayatepe

Starting XI ▼

99
Furkan Bekleviç
Furkan Bekleviç Goalkeeper
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Defender
6.91
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Defender
6.55
33
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Çağtay Kurukalıp Defender
6.78
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Defender
6.56
5
Matías Kranevitter
Matías Kranevitter Midfielder
6.58
10
Daniele Verde
Daniele Verde
Attacker59'
7.07
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz Midfielder
6.82
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Midfielder
6.69
70
Serginho
Serginho Midfielder
6.83
94
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Defender69'
6.72
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka Midfielder
6.7
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı
Attacker90+1'
6.69
21
Tiago Çukur
Tiago Çukur Attacker
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Barış Kalaycı → Shavy Babicka
8th Substitution
Event
Esat Yusuf Narin → Show
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Darko Churlinov → Mahamadou Susoho
6th Substitution
73'
70'
Event
Anıl Yiğit Çınar
Header / 1st Goal
69'
Event
Anıl Yiğit Çınar → Serginho
5th Substitution
Event
Tayfur Bingöl → Can Keleş
4th Substitution
61'
59'
Event
Daniele Verde → Matías Kranevitter
3rd Substitution
Event
Habib Keïta → Joseph Nonge
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Rigoberto Rivas → Ahmet Oğuz
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Show
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Baris Kalayci replaces Shavy Babicka.
88
Attempt Attempt
Tayfur Bingol takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Luis Da Silva Cafumana takes a shot with his right foot, but it misses the target.
73
Update Update
Darko Churlinov comes on for Mahamadou Susoho.
70
Update Update
Anil Yigit Cinar scores with a header.
69
Update Update
Anil Yigit Cinar comes on for Serginho Antonio Da Luiz Junior.
63
Attempt Attempt
Habib Keita takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Update Update
Tayfur Bingol replaces Can Keles.
59
Update Update
Daniele Verde comes on for Claudio Matias Kranevitter.
56
Attempt Attempt
Bartug Elmaz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Can Keles misses with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Rigoberto Rivas is on, and Ahmet Oguz is off.
46
Update Update
Habib Keita is on, and Joseph Nonge Boende is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Manuel Luis Da Silva Cafumana with his right foot, but it's missed.
42
Attempt Attempt
Bartug Elmaz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Serginho Antonio Da Luiz Junior takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
31
Attempt Attempt
Mahamadou Susoho takes a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Berkay Ozcan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Can Keles takes a left-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Cukur takes a shot with his right foot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fatih Karagümrük exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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