Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Tue, 12 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
3 Winner 1
Dundee DUD
Full Time Tue, 12 May 6:45 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase
Joe Hugill - 90+4', 85' (P)
Tom Lowery - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Tom Lowery - 77' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

Kilmarnock claimed a 3-1 home victory over Dundee in this Scottish Premiership match, with all goals arriving after a goalless first half that saw possession split 52%-48% in Kilmarnock's favor. As the stronger team, Kilmarnock dominated the second period, scoring three times while Dundee managed a consolation goal. No red cards disrupted play, and no specific second-half adjustments were noted. The outcome showed a significant 40.5% structural deviation favoring Kilmarnock, with market alignment confirmed as true. Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. Lacking xG data, deeper chance quality analysis is unavailable, but the result aligns with Kilmarnock's pre-match favoritism at 59.5% implied probability. This performance reinforces Kilmarnock's control in key moments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock recorded a significant 40.5% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment is undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with Kilmarnock's victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Scott

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Murdoch

4th Official

Scotland

D. Roome

1st Assistant

Scotland

A. Taylor

2nd Assistant

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.21
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Dundee S. Pressley
S. Pressley
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 64 W
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 59 D
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Livingston Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 55 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 61 D
Celtic Rank: 79 L
Hearts Rank: 75 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 17 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
59.49%
Draw
22.58%
Away Dundee
17.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kilmarnock
-35.74%
Draw
+18%
Dundee
+17.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.52
58.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Power Score
60.52
58.98
League Position
11
9
Global Rank
481
533

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Dundee

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.63
18.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.44
41.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Dundee
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kilmarnock
vs
Dundee
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kilmarnock Dundee
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kilmarnock 0.36
Dundee 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kilmarnock 0.03
Dundee 0.06
Kilmarnock
Dundee
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KIL had peak pressure around 24'.
  • KIL started the game with stronger pressure.
KIL Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KIL reached the top pressure at 24' (94.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 32 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
32 matches
Dundee DUD Away
Match Record
8
Wins
7
17
Draws
17
7
Losses
8
Goals
43
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
43
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Stryjek
Poland
1 M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
D. Thompson
England
3 D. Thompson
T. Lowery
England
18 T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
F. Curtis
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
G. Kiltie
Substitution
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
B. Anderson
Substitution
Scotland
19 B. Anderson
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill
Pitch
K. O'Hara
Republic of Ireland
13 K. O'Hara
B. Koumetio
France
5 B. Koumetio
C. Robertson
Substitution
Scotland
3 C. Robertson
R. Astley
Wales
4 R. Astley
I. Samuels
England
12 I. Samuels
F. Robertson
Scotland
10 F. Robertson
J. Cotterill
Substitution
Wales
24 J. Cotterill
C. Jones
Wales
28 C. Jones
B. Halliday
Substitution
England
16 B. Halliday
S. Wright
Substitution
Scotland
25 S. Wright
A. Hay
Substitution
England
11 A. Hay

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Rugby Park
Capacity :
18128
Attendance :
5839
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
S. Murdoch
Calum Scott
D. Roome
Alaistair Taylor

Statistics

Possession
KIL
53%
DUD
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 0
19 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 37
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 2
17 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 11
4 Successful Dribbles 2
7 Dribble Attempts 4
18 Throwins 16
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
73 Ball Safe 83
13 Goal Attempts 4
1 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
1 Penalties 0
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

126 Attacks 92
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
47 Long Passes 60
17 Successful Long Passes 23
357 Successful Passes 322
442 Passes 420
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
15 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Tackles 10
2 Saves 5
51 Duels Won 58
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

13 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson Defender
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
5
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo
Defender87'
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder90+2'
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Midfielder
23
Marley Watkins
Marley Watkins
Attacker58'
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Midfielder
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
2
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

13
Kieran O'Hara
Kieran O'Hara Goalkeeper
3
Clark Robertson
Clark Robertson Defender
27
Joe Bevan
Joe Bevan
Attacker67'
4
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley Defender
5
Billy Koumetio
Billy Koumetio Defender
10
Finlay Robertson
Finlay Robertson Midfielder
12
Imari Samuels
Imari Samuels Midfielder
16
Brad Halliday
Brad Halliday Midfielder
—
Brad Halliday
78'
24
Joel Cotterill
Joel Cotterill Midfielder
17
Tony Yogane
Tony Yogane
Midfielder86'
28
Callum Jones
Callum Jones Midfielder
11
Ashley Hay
Ashley Hay Attacker
19
Joe Westley
Joe Westley
Attacker68'
25
Scott Wright
Scott Wright Attacker
18
Charlie Reilly
Charlie Reilly
Attacker68'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Joe Hugill
7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Joe Hugill
Header / 2nd Goal
90+4'
Event
Rory McKenzie → Greg Kiltie
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Lewis Mayo
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Lewis Mayo → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
7th Substitution
87'
Event
David Watson → Marley Watkins
8th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Tony Yogane → Joel Cotterill
6th Substitution
Event
Joe Hugill
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
84'
Event
Kieran O'Hara
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Joe Bevan
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Charley Oosenbrugh → Brad Halliday
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Tom Lowery
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
68'
Event
Charlie Reilly → Scott Wright
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Joe Westley → Ashley Hay
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Joe Bevan → Clark Robertson
2nd Substitution
Event
Tom Lowery
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
62'
Event
Marley Watkins → Bruce Anderson
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
Robbie Deas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
38'
Event
Bruce Anderson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Findlay Curtis
Goal disallowed
24'
18'
Event
Finlay Robertson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his head and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Astley's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Reilly takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Rory McKenzie comes on for Greg Kiltie.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joe Hugill scores, bringing the score to 3-1.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rory McKenzie takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Hugill receives a yellow card.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Mayo receives a yellow card.
87
Update Update
David Watson is on, and Marley Watkins is off.
87
Update Update
Lewis Mayo replaces Michael Schjonning Larsen.
86
Update Update
Tony Yogane comes on for Joel Cotterill.
85
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kieran O'Hara receives a yellow card.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Bevan receives a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Charley Oosenbrugh is on, and Brad Halliday is off.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
An own goal by Tom Lowery levels the score at 1-1.
77
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Reilly takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Charlie Reilly scores, bringing the match to 1-1.
75
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Marley Watkins takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Charlie Reilly's left-footed shot is blocked.
68
Update Update
Joe Westley is on, and Ashley Hay is off.
68
Update Update
Charlie Reilly replaces Scott Wright.
67
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Joe Bevan is on, and Clark Robertson is off.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Tom Lowery scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Michael Schjonning Larsen.
62
Attempt Attempt
Tom Lowery takes a right-footed shot and scores.
60
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola's right-footed shot is blocked.
58
Update Update
Marley Watkins is on, and Bruce Anderson is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Michael Schjonning Larsen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Thompson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Dominic Thompson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ashley Hay takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Imari Samuels takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis takes a shot, but it misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Clark Robertson attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Bruce Anderson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Robbie Deas receives a yellow card.
35
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bruce Anderson receives a yellow card.
23
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis scores with a right-footed shot.
22
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
22
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Findlay Curtis.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Findlay Curtis scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Greg Kiltie.
19
Attempt Attempt
Tom Lowery takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Finlay Robertson receives a yellow card.
15
Attempt Attempt
Michael Schjonning Larsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Tom Lowery takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Kilmarnock's 3-1 triumph over Dundee exemplifies second-half execution after a level halftime. Slight possession edge and lack of red cards allowed structural advantages to prevail, yielding a significant 40.5% deviation. Market alignment validates the stronger team's win, while efficiency in line suggests consistent application of strengths. Without xG, shot efficiency and chance creation remain opaque, but the scoreline reflects decisive momentum shift. This result enhances Kilmarnock's position, highlighting resilience in converting pressure into goals against a resilient Dundee side.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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