Kilmarnock vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Kilmarnock KIL
3 Winner 0
Dundee United DUD
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase
Joe Hugill - 64'
Findlay Curtis - 51'
Robbie Deas - 20'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kilmarnock delivered a commanding 3-0 home victory over Dundee United, defying expectations in a match defined by clinical finishing and defensive solidity. The hosts took a 1-0 lead into halftime, courtesy of sharp opportunism despite trailing in possession at 42% to the visitors' 58%. Dundee United, labeled the stronger side pre-match, dominated the ball but struggled to convert pressure into goals, allowing Kilmarnock to strike twice more after the break. This result marked a significant 56.4% structural deviation favoring Kilmarnock, with no red cards or major disruptions altering the flow. Efficiency stayed in line with performance metrics, and the outcome aligned with market positioning where home victory carried the highest pre-match weight at 43.6%. Kilmarnock's backline frustrated Dundee United's attacks, while midfield transitions proved decisive. The second half saw no tactical overhauls, underscoring the hosts' composure under pressure. This upset highlighted Kilmarnock's resilience against a possession-heavy opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kilmarnock's 3-0 win showed a 56.4% significant structural deviation from pre-match assessments.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with overall match performance.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG data unavailable to establish performance expectations.
  • Event impact: No key events like adjustments or reds influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Clancy

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Potter

1st Assistant

C. Gentles

2nd Assistant

A. Grieve

4th Official

Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
0.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: 58 L
Dundee Rank: 58 D
Hibernian Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 55 W
Hearts Rank: 74 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 58 W
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Celtic Rank: 78 W
Dundee Rank: 59 D
St. Mirren Rank: 57 W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 18 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kilmarnock
43.55%
Draw
26.75%
Away Dundee United
29.69%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kilmarnock
-54.05%
Draw
+24.84%
Dundee United
+29.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.77
62.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Dundee United
Power Score
57.77
62.24
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
564
412

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Dundee United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.33
38.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.45
28.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock -0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee United +0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Dundee United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Dundee United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kilmarnock
vs
Dundee United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kilmarnock Dundee United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kilmarnock 0.61
Dundee United 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Dundee United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kilmarnock 0.00
Dundee United 0.17
Kilmarnock
Dundee United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DUD had peak pressure around 92'.
  • DUD started the game with stronger pressure.
KIL Pressure DUD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DUD reached the top pressure at 92' (86.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
49 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
15
Wins
16
18
Draws
18
16
Losses
15
Goals
68
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
68
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:04:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
M. Stryjek
Poland
1 M. Stryjek
F. Curtis
Substitution
Scotland
52 F. Curtis
G. Stanger
New Zealand
14 G. Stanger
R. Deas
Scotland
6 R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
Substitution
Estonia
21 M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Kiltie
Substitution
Scotland
11 G. Kiltie
T. Lowery
England
18 T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
DR Congo
36 A. Tshibola
J. Hugill
England
44 J. Hugill
B. Anderson
Substitution
Scotland
19 B. Anderson
N. Serghei Clescenco
Substitution
Moldova
20 N. Serghei Clescenco
Pitch
D. Richards
Wales
25 D. Richards
K. Keresztes
Substitution
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
S. Harding
Scotland
37 S. Harding
W. Ferry
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
E. Agyei
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
P. Pereira Camará
Substitution
Guinea-Bissau
8 P. Pereira Camará
D. Naamo
Finland
22 D. Naamo
Z. Sapsford
Substitution
Australia
9 Z. Sapsford
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters
N. Farrugia
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Rugby Park
Capacity :
18128
Attendance :
5524
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Clancy
Dougie Potter
Chris Gentles
Alastair Grieve

Statistics

Possession
KIL
43%
DUD
57%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 7
18 Dangerous attacks 66
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 8
10 Free kicks 13
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
12 Goal Kicks 4
67 Ball Safe 79
7 Goal Attempts 11
10 Throwins 24
3 Dribble Attempts 7
2 Successful Dribbles 3
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
61 Attacks 105

Possession

8 Key Passes 16
24 Successful Long Passes 23
65 Long Passes 61
71 Successful Passes Percentage 83
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
346 Passes 468
246 Successful Passes 387

Defensive

57 Duels Won 33
5 Saves 5
17 Tackles 3
7 Interceptions 6

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 8
11 Total Crosses 29

Discipline

13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.09
6
Robbie Deas
Robbie Deas Defender
6.72
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
6.6
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
6.58
5
Lewis Mayo
Lewis Mayo
Defender74'
6.67
52
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis Defender
6.68
7
Rory McKenzie
Rory McKenzie
Midfielder74'
6.49
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie Midfielder
6.86
16
Kyle Magennis
Kyle Magennis
Midfielder74'
6.47
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
6.49
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
6.72
19
Bruce Anderson
Bruce Anderson Attacker
6.6
31
Liam Polworth
Liam Polworth
Midfielder63'
6.78
20
Nicky Clescenco
Nicky Clescenco Attacker
6.64
3
Dominic Thompson
Dominic Thompson
Defender46'
6.6
44
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
6.89
Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards Goalkeeper
6.74
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
6.97
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
7.01
19
Ivan Dolcek
Ivan Dolcek
Attacker61'
6.8
37
S. Harding
S. Harding Defender
6.51
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara Midfielder
6.82
14
Craig Sibbald
Craig Sibbald
Midfielder71'
6.86
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
7.23
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
7.11
22
Dario Naamo
Dario Naamo Midfielder
6.5
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford Attacker
6.77
77
Johnny Russell
Johnny Russell
Attacker71'
6.44
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
6.74
34
Owen Stirton
Owen Stirton
Defender86'
6.39
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
6.68
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj
Defender60'
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Owen Stirton → N. Farrugia
10th Substitution
Event
Lewis Mayo → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Kyle Magennis → Greg Kiltie
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Rory McKenzie → Findlay Curtis
9th Substitution
74'
71'
Event
Johnny Russell → Zachary Sapsford
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Craig Sibbald → Panutche Camara
6th Substitution
Event
Joe Hugill
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Liam Polworth → Bruce Anderson
4th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Ivan Dolcek → Krisztián Keresztes
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Vicko Sevelj → Max Watters
2nd Substitution
Event
Findlay Curtis
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Dominic Thompson → Nicky Clescenco
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
N. Farrugia
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Robbie Deas
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Dolcek's left-footed shot is saved.
86
Update Update
Owen Stirton is on, and Neil Farrugia is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Ross Graham attempted a header, but it missed the target.
79
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Vicko Sevelj takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Neil Farrugia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
74
Update Update
Kyle Magennis is on, and Greg Kiltie is off.
74
Update Update
Lewis Mayo replaces Michael Schjonning Larsen.
72
Attempt Attempt
Craig Sibbald takes a left-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Craig Sibbald replaces Panutche Camara.
71
Update Update
Johnny Russell is on, and Zachary Sapsford is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Dolcek's right-footed shot is saved.
69
Update Update
Ross Graham's header hits the post.
69
Attempt Attempt
Panutche Camara has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
63
Update Update
Liam Polworth comes on for Bruce Anderson.
63
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Agyei takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Update Update
Ivan Dolcek comes on for Krisztian Keresztes.
60
Update Update
Vicko Sevelj is on, and Max Watters is off.
51
Attempt Attempt
Findlay Curtis scores with a right-footed shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Dominic Thompson is on, and Nicky Clescenco is off.
41
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Max Watters takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Will Ferry's left-footed shot is blocked.
33
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Agyei's header is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
George Stanger's header is saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Deas takes a left-footed shot and scores.
17
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie's left-footed shot is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Max Watters attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Max Watters takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Tom Lowery takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Zachary Sapsford takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Kilmarnock's 3-0 triumph over Dundee United stands as a testament to their ruthless efficiency, turning limited possession into a decisive win. Despite Dundee United's 58% ball control and stronger pre-match billing, they faltered in the final third, enabling Kilmarnock to extend a halftime lead into a comprehensive scoreline. This significant deviation underscores the hosts' tactical discipline and counter-attacking prowess, with defensive resilience neutralizing threats. Market alignment reinforced the result's plausibility, while unavailability of xG leaves room for further scrutiny. No disruptions ensured a pure test of quality, where Kilmarnock prevailed convincingly.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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